Widestrides NFL Picks Week 5

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9-7-1 last week on posted plays.
29-30-1 for the season on posted plays. (49%)
11-9 Mock Hilton (55%)
23-17 Carib Contest (57.5%) 46th Place (Top 20 get paid)
2-2 BW GOW Contest

6 point Teaser for tonight.

St. Louis +8.5 and under 45

First nationally televised game for St. Louis in some time and they can knock off an undefeated team.

[resteasy]

Nice hit man! Keep it rolling through week 5.

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1-0 to start the week.

Beware. Only 1 Dog below. I've been picking Dogs but can't find any I like. Hoping this is the week Favs make up a few games on the Dogs who have been covering at 60%.

Redskins +3 vs Falcons. Upset special. Falcons may be ripe for the taking in DC. Trap game for the Falcons, or are they good enough to avoid it? I'm banking on their D being a pretender. Not the O, though. They are for real. Maybe go over also as they both may go up and down the field.

Steelers -3 vs Eagles. Gotta shop around for the 3 or buy the hook. Steelers well rested and getting some players back. Eagles OL a mess and Blitzburgh will be coming. Eagles D playing well though so Big Ben needs to avoid mistakes.

Packers -6.5 at Colts. Colts were 2-14 last year and Luck is not playing nearly as well as RGII or even Tannehill or Weeden. That Colts D is worse than last year and they were never good even when Peyton was there. Pack will score at least 31. True, the Packers seem to be out of sync and Jennings is out, but on paper, they should have little trouble with the Colts. Of course, it's not played on paper and the Colts are off a bye, at home, playing for their ailing Coach. I still think Rogers and McCarthy make the adjustments to cover.

Bengals -3 vs Fins. Dalton and AJ Green clicking. Bengals D not playing as expected. Maybe at home they get it going. Fins not an offensive juggernaut.

Panthers -2.5 vs Seahawks. Another long road trip for Seattle and Panthers should be pissed that they let the Falcons off their own goal line! Must win for the Panthers.

Bears -5.5 at Jags. Bears might be in letdown mode and it's their second on the road after looking like world-beaters Monday night. But that D comes to play every game. I also like under. Has to be at least 41.

Niners -9.5 vs Bills. At first I thought Bills +10, but then I came to my senses. Niners at home after two on the road will pressure Fitz into at least 2 INTs and a fumble. Bills D allowed 52 last week at home in a huge game! It's a lotta points, but you know the Niners will come to play and give you a shot at the cover right to the end.

Saints -3 vs Chargers. Buying the hook again. Saints finally will get a W by taking their frustrations out on SD. Rivers will get his but Brees should get 10 more.

Taking all the ones above.

Thinking about:
Pats -6.5 vs Broncos? Can Peyton hang with Brady? I might go with Pats at only 6.5. Denver on the road not the same team. Pats drilled them last year. Of course that was Tebow, not Peyton, so Pats and over might be the way to go, but it's over 51, so not sure. Brady is next to unstoppable, but the Pats D is suspect.

Browns/Giants over 43.5?
Ravens/Chiefs under 47?
Fins/Bengals under 45?

[resteasy]

Good luck man,
I felt last week was the trap game for atl and was almost right. Could certainly see this happening though (mobile qb defense issues? weather 60% chance of rain for ryan)
Colts' record shouldn't count last year. It's such a different team and Luck is playing well, just under the radar and as you note, that D is not good.
The bengals game is scary to me. Fins are losing but losing close. I'll be pulling for you.
Had the same reaction to bills game. My only worry why I stayed off (so far) is if the niners play it real slow and worry about the backdoor cover. But they sure are good and buffalo's D is not what they payed for.

It'd be interesting to see manning's stats playing outdoors and of course in NE. Pats took down the sad titans and stomped on their divisional foes the bills. They did lose close to cards and ravens. Denver lost by 6 to both houston and atlanta (though that's a backdoor 6) who the 2 top teams so far this year. I've been leaning denver but haven't played it yet.

50% chance of rain in NY. Not sure if that's just a scattered drizzle but could keep the ball on the ground especially if there are any winds associated with that. Always hard to figure what the Giants will do. They could come out smoking and put up a ton of points or keep this close and under.

I lean over in KC. Ravens put up like 30, chiefs around 20 with garbage time help. It is close to the number though.

Over in fins/bengals. The Browns put up 27 on them in cincy's only home game so far. You can't run on the dolphins (very good run D) but you can pass on them (poor pass D) so that's over friendly.

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I am going to come off the Skins and look at the over now that it is down to 50.5 due to rain. Rain not expected to be hard and not windy.

Updated Card:
Steelers -3 vs Eagles
Steelers/Eagles over 43
Packers -6.5 at Colts
Bengals -3 vs Fins
Panthers -2.5 vs Seahawks
Bears -5.5 at Jags
Niners -9.5 vs Bills.
Saints -3 (hook) vs Chargers

Absolutely ALL favs - but all but two are at home. Banking on a regression to the mean this week as Dogs have been covering at over 60% so far this year. Can't keep that up. Can they?

Considering
Redskins/Falcons over 50.5
Giants/Browns over 43
Bengals/Fins under 45
Bears/Jags under 41

GL

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Added Skins/Falcons over 50.5

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Brutal 3-6 on the week with Saints to go.

But it wasn't because I took so many Favorites. Favs vs Dogs are 6-6 so far this week. Just picked the wrong ones! Tried to stick with the small Home favs, but mine just didn't show up or play a full game.

Back to the Drawing Board.

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4-6. Not so bad.

Saints got some breaks on that last drive.

[resteasy]

some? I'd like to thank the refs for the extra cash in my pocket.
Guess it's true, saints can only win with Sean Payton in attendance.

You'll get em next week (including monday) man.

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Teaser: Jets +16.5 and under 47.5 (6.5 point teaser. Book has Jets +10 and 41)

GL

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And just for fun:

Houston -2.5 and over 34 (7 point teaser. Book has Texans -9.5 and 41)

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Added over 44.5 on Live Betting at end of the 1st when score was 7-7 for 1.5 units.

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Added Texans -9.5 1/2 unit. Live Betting at 2 minute warning when score was 14-7 Texans. Sanchez looking inept, although Jets D hanging in there.

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Added Texans -3 2H. 1/2 unit.

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Hit both sides of that Teaser at 2 units each, but lost all 3 Live bets. Still came out 4-2.5 on the night and up 1.5 units. 8-8.5 for the week. Treading water, but drowning in juice!

Friggin' Texans just played so conservative all night. Andre Johnson doesn't seem like much of a threat any more. Who else do they have at WR? They don't look like the best team in the NFL to me. But who does? We'll see in SF next week. A Giant win there gets them back in the conversation despite a shaky start. Atlanta looking good but barely beat the Panthers in Atlanta and struggled against the Redskins. That leaves Pats. Da Bears?! Packers don't look like they got it together. Rodgers needs Jennings. And now Benson is out for 8 weeks or the year.