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Indianapolis Colts (5-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7)
current line
Colts -3.5 (-115)
Jags +3.5 (-105)
O/U 43
I know you all have been waiting for this considering how well I've done lately (sarcasm)
This looks like a really juicy match-up for the Colts. The Jags are just 1-7 and are ranked 27th in both rush/pass defense. They only have 8 sacks and have forced just 7 TO's. They're giving up 255 ypg passing (9 TD's) and 137 rushing (4.2 ypc, 12 TD's), a 61.8% QB completion rate and 27.4 ppg.
Interestingly, their only win was @ Indianapolis in Week 3 even though they were out-yarded and 1st-downed by a decent margin. The Jags benefited from a 60 yd TD run by RB Maurice Jones-Drew (who will be absent tonight) and an 80 yd air strike to WR Cecil Shorts III who has been hot lately. The Jags will be getting starting CB Derek Cox back who missed last week vs Detroit.
Indianapolis hasn't been much better on defense, ranked 25th against the run (130 ypg, 9 TD's) but a decent 11th vs the pass (221 ypg, 14 TD's though and just 2 INT's), and giving up 23.9 ppg. Overall the IND defense has only generated 3 TO's and as a team are -10 in TO ratio whereas the Jags are just a -2. Indy will get LB Pat Angerer back on defense for this game but Robert Mathis is questionable and they will be missing their 2 starting CB's Vontae Davis and Jarraud Powers.
While doing research for the fantasy aspects of starting Luck tonight I noticed that Luck has had 5 of 8 games at home where he has thrown for an avg of 303.6 ypg, and a total of 8 TD passing, 3 TD rushing and just 2 INT's. In the 3 road games he has gone for 295 ypg, but a total of just 2 TD passing, 0 TD rushing and then 6 INT's. He's also had 20 rushes for 112 yds (5.6 ypc) at home and just 9 for 36 (4 ypc) on the road. So he obviously has played better at home.
This game is similar to the Tennessee road game when you look at the match-up via defensive rankings where he went for 297/1/1. Vs Jacksonville at home in week 3 Luck went for 313/2/1 but completed less than 50% of his passes.
Another thing, in their 3 road games (1 on field turf, 2 on grass) the Colts have only scored 3 offensive TD's and one came in OT. They've scored 21, 9 and 19 in those road games with 6 of that last one in OT. This game will be on grass and outside. Luck will most certainly get his yards but if this one goes like the other 3 road games he maybe shouldn't be counted on for multiple TD passes.
Even though the match-up looks great for the Colts, and the fact that the Jags give up nearly 28 ppg, the fact that the Colts haven't scored well on the road worries me a bit. A total of 49 pts in 3 road games and 1 TD was defensive, 1 in OT and another in Week 1 could be considered in garbage time makes it look even worse. This will be their very 1st time as a road favorite under Luck, so that is also a concern. They do have the 6 pt road win @ Tennessee (which was a similar defensive match-up), but that one went to OT.
I don't like the hook in this one at all. If I was going to take the Colts I would seriously consider buying the 1/2 pt. I also don't like the total of 43 considering the Jags are only averaging around 14.5 ppg and the fact that the Colts haven't been lighting up the scoreboard on the road on grass.
So, in my infinite wisdom, I am going to play the home team and the under on a 7 pt teaser and see what happens.
Jags +10.5 and UN 50
EDIT: to summarize why I don't like the Colts @ -3.5
1. 1st road game as favorite
2. -10 TO ratio
3. Generated only 3 TO's
4. Road scoring, or lack thereof / results on grass
5. starting CB's out
My long shot 7 pt teaser of the week. I like playing these for fun. Feel free to mix and match. (notice I play IND +3.5 on this one....go figure)
pays 8 to 1
Denver +3 @ CAR
TB +4 vs SD
Colts +3.5 @ Jax
DAL +5.5 @ Phi
Atl/NO OV 46.5
NYJ +13 @ Sea
Hou +8 @ Chi
current line
Colts -3.5 (-115)
Jags +3.5 (-105)
O/U 43
I know you all have been waiting for this considering how well I've done lately (sarcasm)
This looks like a really juicy match-up for the Colts. The Jags are just 1-7 and are ranked 27th in both rush/pass defense. They only have 8 sacks and have forced just 7 TO's. They're giving up 255 ypg passing (9 TD's) and 137 rushing (4.2 ypc, 12 TD's), a 61.8% QB completion rate and 27.4 ppg.
Interestingly, their only win was @ Indianapolis in Week 3 even though they were out-yarded and 1st-downed by a decent margin. The Jags benefited from a 60 yd TD run by RB Maurice Jones-Drew (who will be absent tonight) and an 80 yd air strike to WR Cecil Shorts III who has been hot lately. The Jags will be getting starting CB Derek Cox back who missed last week vs Detroit.
Indianapolis hasn't been much better on defense, ranked 25th against the run (130 ypg, 9 TD's) but a decent 11th vs the pass (221 ypg, 14 TD's though and just 2 INT's), and giving up 23.9 ppg. Overall the IND defense has only generated 3 TO's and as a team are -10 in TO ratio whereas the Jags are just a -2. Indy will get LB Pat Angerer back on defense for this game but Robert Mathis is questionable and they will be missing their 2 starting CB's Vontae Davis and Jarraud Powers.
While doing research for the fantasy aspects of starting Luck tonight I noticed that Luck has had 5 of 8 games at home where he has thrown for an avg of 303.6 ypg, and a total of 8 TD passing, 3 TD rushing and just 2 INT's. In the 3 road games he has gone for 295 ypg, but a total of just 2 TD passing, 0 TD rushing and then 6 INT's. He's also had 20 rushes for 112 yds (5.6 ypc) at home and just 9 for 36 (4 ypc) on the road. So he obviously has played better at home.
This game is similar to the Tennessee road game when you look at the match-up via defensive rankings where he went for 297/1/1. Vs Jacksonville at home in week 3 Luck went for 313/2/1 but completed less than 50% of his passes.
Another thing, in their 3 road games (1 on field turf, 2 on grass) the Colts have only scored 3 offensive TD's and one came in OT. They've scored 21, 9 and 19 in those road games with 6 of that last one in OT. This game will be on grass and outside. Luck will most certainly get his yards but if this one goes like the other 3 road games he maybe shouldn't be counted on for multiple TD passes.
Even though the match-up looks great for the Colts, and the fact that the Jags give up nearly 28 ppg, the fact that the Colts haven't scored well on the road worries me a bit. A total of 49 pts in 3 road games and 1 TD was defensive, 1 in OT and another in Week 1 could be considered in garbage time makes it look even worse. This will be their very 1st time as a road favorite under Luck, so that is also a concern. They do have the 6 pt road win @ Tennessee (which was a similar defensive match-up), but that one went to OT.
I don't like the hook in this one at all. If I was going to take the Colts I would seriously consider buying the 1/2 pt. I also don't like the total of 43 considering the Jags are only averaging around 14.5 ppg and the fact that the Colts haven't been lighting up the scoreboard on the road on grass.
So, in my infinite wisdom, I am going to play the home team and the under on a 7 pt teaser and see what happens.
Jags +10.5 and UN 50
EDIT: to summarize why I don't like the Colts @ -3.5
1. 1st road game as favorite
2. -10 TO ratio
3. Generated only 3 TO's
4. Road scoring, or lack thereof / results on grass
5. starting CB's out
My long shot 7 pt teaser of the week. I like playing these for fun. Feel free to mix and match. (notice I play IND +3.5 on this one....go figure)
pays 8 to 1
Denver +3 @ CAR
TB +4 vs SD
Colts +3.5 @ Jax
DAL +5.5 @ Phi
Atl/NO OV 46.5
NYJ +13 @ Sea
Hou +8 @ Chi
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