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OVER/UNDER Thread Week 14

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  • OVER/UNDER Thread Week 14

    A very pedestrian 2 – 2 last week with my over/unders. I did hit my best bet with the Oak/Dal Over on Thanksgiving Thursday but missed miserable with that Ind/Tenn Over.
    The AFC/NFC OVER trend went 2-0 last week and is back on track again going pushing that trend to now 20 -3 in the last 6 weeks. It really is hard to ignore and I will continue to investigate and ride this trend until proven otherwise. This week, there is 4 more games to consider for this OVER Trend: KC/Wash, Buff/TB, Minni/Balt, and NYGMen/SD.

    Buff/TB (43): Opened at 42.5, dropped to 41 and now back to 43. Of the 4 Qualifiers, I like the Over here the best. TB has been over 6 of last 8 and 4 of last 5 at home. Exact same stats for Buffalo; 6-2 Over last 8 and Over 4 of last 5 on road.

    KC/Wash(44): Opened at 45, now at 44. Wash has allowed 30.2 points per game this year while KC’s (strong?) defense has been sieve like lately giving up huge yardage in last 4 games (although 2 of those games were against Denver ). Washington just cannot score and with bad weather (ice and snow),this will be a “no-play” for me.

    Minni/Balt(41.5): Opened at 43 and has moved down. Balt is Under 7 of last 8 at home. Minni scores a lot and they give up a lot. Weather again a factor. I will not buck trend, so this will be a no-play for me.

    NYGMen/SD(47.5):Line has not moved. This will be close. NY’s defense has stepped up lately and NY has played Under 13 of last 16 Road games, including 9 of last 10 on grass. SD plays solid D at home (even holding Den Under 4 weeks ago). Bucking the AFC/NFC Over Trend, I will play the Under 47.5

    The highest Total on the board is Det/Phili at 53.5. I would have liked the Over more if the game was indoors at Ford Field. Phili is Under last 5 at home and weather is suspect along the East Coast, so probably a no-play for me.

    Tenn/Den(49.5) Dropped early in week and now back up. Tenn has been Over 6 of last 8 and Den has played Over 11 of 13 games this year. I will definitely tease this to the OVER 43.5.

    Miami/Pitt(41):Line dropped and now climbing back. All trends I see point to an Under. Even though Pitt has played Under 13 of last 16 at home, they have been putting up huge point totals last few weeks. The only question is can Miami score? I see Pitt covering at home (-3) and will lean Over 41 based on point totals for both teams last 5 weeks.

    My picks this week…Best play is Buff/TB OVER , Tenn/Den OVER and UNDER NYG/SD

    Good luck, may all your picks (but especially mine) be winners

  • #2
    With bad weather predicted, I got Det@Phili under 54.5 last Monday.
    8pts total at the half, 20pts through the 3rd Q. Feeling good, heh.
    Then..34pts. 4th Q. Celik actually had a wide open catch with
    less than a minute to go, but sat down at the 10 yd line. Wow.

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