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Mock Hilton Standings thru week # 8

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  • Mock Hilton Standings thru week # 8

    mattattack33 = 29

    zman = 26
    winandwin = 26
    aakj = 26

    ksavallo = 25
    martint4324 # 2 = 25
    Jason Daubenspeck = 25
    Impalerwins = 25
    bama25 = 25
    guy # 2 = 25

    martint4324 # 1 = 24
    Hedgehog = 24
    bigdogdan2 = 24
    Possum = 24
    dkp = 24
    woodee12 # 1 = 24
    hihosilvr = 24
    Collywobbles = 24

    Dinger # 1 = 23
    never lose # 2 = 23
    Pipforprez = 23
    miklos = 23
    sacii = 23
    pdiddy = 23
    linaminer = 23
    guy # 1 = 23

    Dinger # 2 = 22
    noname = 22
    c&gplus1 = 22
    Taxman = 22
    the boys = 22
    atman25 = 22

    simecekt = 21
    the B-man = 21
    ssantam = 21
    Sharky = 21
    IMALLN = 21
    resteasy = 21
    KdubbNM = 21
    cford1 = 21
    chrny = 21
    Bill = 21
    kif = 21
    normcash # 1 = 21
    trytrytry = 21
    widestrides # 2 = 21
    charlatan = 21

    carpet = 20
    the guesser = 20
    ock # 2 = 20
    harleyfill # 1 = 20
    dogkatcher = 20
    Laxfso99 = 20
    oakas = 20
    Cookie Monster = 20
    widestrides # 1 = 20

    never lose # 1 = 19
    Monroe Eaford = 19
    oldluds = 19
    citizenc = 19
    winnersbyt&b = 19
    jonnymac317 = 19

    unclefitz = 18
    woodee12 # 2 = 18
    mmRanch21 = 18
    bobomax = 18
    ock # 1 = 18
    Ruger9mm = 18
    Mattwellin = 18

    BobbyBoucher = 17
    normcash # 2 = 17
    harleyfill # 2 = 17

    dragon1952 = 16
    Imaginemore = 16
    bret3518 = 16
    Sharkeys Machine = 16
    TheBlackCat = 16

    Jccritic = 15
    stooged = 15

    el guapo = 14
    Samter = 14
    xbigpappa = 14
    Krichinsky = 14
    carpets wife = 14

    Swany = 13

    Cultfigure = 11
    Juluvg = 11

    Goose = 10

    1138rmc = 5

    skey1955 = 4

  • #2
    any 5-0 this week?

    Comment


    • #3
      after no 5-0's in week # 7, we had two 5-0's in week # 8.

      Pipforprez.... 5-0
      bama25..... 5-0

      Comment


      • #4
        Thanks Monroe, we know how hard it is to go 5-0. Nice job you two.

        Comment


        • #5
          Leader: 72.5%-29 out of 40 picks

          Top 10: 64%-257 out of 400 picks

          Excellent!

          Comment


          • #6
            72% is INSANE!! Nice job.

            Comment


            • #7
              Looks like all top entries hit 2-3 last week. Gap closing.

              Comment


              • #8
                You have to take into account that the Hilton Contest is played with stale lines, so the win % is always going to be quite a bit higher than anyone could do with Real Time lines. But even accounting for that, our leaders and the leaders of the real contest would still be making some serious cash, even if they were wagering with Real Time lines. And no excuse for me to be barely over 50%! :-)

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by widestrides View Post
                  Hilton Contest is played with stale lines, so the win % is always going to be quite a bit higher than anyone could do with Real Time lines.
                  My challenge to surrendering to the belief that Stale Lines play such a huge role is that Hilton lines released Wednesday would have already seen line movement as result of Sharp $ with line movement after that, I'd suspect (and especially on Sunday itself) driven by more largely SQUARE MONEY. Sunday Line movement not applicable to our Mock Hilton as entries due at the strike of Sunday, Midnight Saturday.

                  Yes I admit that Seahawks -5 (4.5?) vs. Denver & Philly + 5 at SF 2 wins I got due to "Stale Lines" Seattle closed -6 (OT push), IIRC Philly closed +4/4.5 (push/.5 loss) but stale Minny Vikings Line (LVH +1.5 close Vikes-2/2.5) saw it broke off in me when DET buried the Vikes so my point is:

                  a.) sometimes stale lines don't = a winner and

                  b.) Lines made "stale" by square $ come largely (do they not?) after LVH lines released + how often REALLY does the linemove (which seems most generally no more that 1-1.5 pts. separate a win from a loss ?

                  Were Total (O/U) plays involved I'd be more inclined to accept that a focus upon Stale Lines could be genuinely beneficial but as they are not my impression is that undue "Importance", focus is placed upon Stale Lines as both a strategy and an even close to remotely NEAR why a contestant would win or lose cuz playing stale line does not automatically equate to sucess, I'm sure theres another in addition to my MINNY example that I've lost this year so really....

                  Do we genuinely believe....as a group.....that "Stale Lines" are as important/sharp a strategy as they are cited to be?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Heck the question will be answered by example this very weekend with SD+1.5/MIA now at +2.5 no way in hell it moves to 3 IMHO woopdedoo 1 whole stale point suck one into a friggin coin-flip game that might very well go to OT or see a MIA 20-17 victory so stale line strategy lures me onto a big fat L on a team traveling all the way east for an early start in a matchup that historically has been exceedingly low-scoring, damn total prolly at 42 or something equally ridiculous. A few more examples this weekend as well, I can grasp the importance of having that 3.5 with NYG vs. IND for those brave enough to predict a goosegg scoring vs. Philly squad "GIANTS" but Stale Line player STILL has to land on the right side and to me this strategy appears to be more like a piece of cheese in a GIANT TRAP than it does a sharp strategy and any real FACTOR OVERALL in why an entry succeeds or fails.

                    AZ/DALLAS likely be the best sayer this weekend of how wise it is to make a grab for that Stale Line Cheese cuz LVH forced the line out at AZ+3.5 now sitting as low as +1 (Bovada.....2.5 @ Pinny). Folks jumpin without a clue how hurt or not Romo is (Romo highest NOV. WIN % in NFL history) cuz its a stale line.

                    Timely discussion this cuz (at least slightly) Stale lines might abound this weekend, way moreso than we've seen this season. If WIN % of 63% EVEN could be shown me on "Stale Lines" I'd be willing to be more excited about the concept but I just ain't "feelling" that is the case with this whole concept.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      If a line moves significantly, it is with both sharp AND square money! This week the stale lines are:
                      Saints -2.5. Now -3. (Easy winner)
                      Washington +2.5. Now a Pickem.
                      Arizona +3.5. Now +2.5! That is a huge and very significant move. Still not a sure thing as it is in Dallas and Romo will try to play through the pain.
                      Giants +3.5. Now +3. Always very significant if it comes off or to the 3.
                      Browns -6.5. Now -7. Not a big move, but somewhat significant.
                      Jax +11. Now +10. Not a big move, but somewhat significant.
                      Oakland +15. Now only +14. Not a big move, but somewhat significant.
                      Miami not such a big move. -1.5 to -2. If it goes to 3, then it's big and you would be wise to listen.

                      Not saying they all win, but you get good value playing them, and you'd be playing a bad number if you were to pick against these line moves.

                      There have also been some real easy winners on stale lines based on big news. Like when Adrian Peterson went out after the Hilton number came out. Even last week, Houston was an easy pick when the Titans went with the rookie QB after the Hilton line came out. Sure they can backfire, but most of the time if you were to play them all, you will come out ahead. So, don't pick it just because of the line move, but go for it if you were leaning that way anyway.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by widestrides View Post
                        If a line moves significantly, it is with both sharp AND square money!
                        Would not those whom procrastinate till Sunday be Less Sharp Sharps? Lines much-like "honed" by Sunday, real value gone barring some injury or.....I spose I'd entertain the idea of Sharp money comin late to "middle". Do you refuse to concede that wager-driven line movement which occurs PRIOR to LVH entry deadline is vastly more comprised of "Sharp Money" as opposed to square?

                        Not a huge necessity for me to have you concede this cuz whatever the case I feel the whole stale line debate is much ado about much LESS than it is....Not a single one of those who whine to me that FEZZIK's back to back victories were the result of playing stale lines has backed this up with concrete lookable at FACT. I'm sure they're just folks naturally inclined towards jealousy so need to diminish the accomplishments of others.

                        Originally posted by widestrides View Post
                        This week the stale lines are:
                        Saints -2.5. Now -3. (Easy winner)
                        Wait. Are you suggesting .5 staleness somehow REVEALED that Cam 'n the Panthers would be inept and SAINTS would overcome their road woes? You saying Stale Line is a "tell'"?

                        Originally posted by widestrides View Post
                        Washington +2.5. Now a Pickem.
                        Again some evil force tries to lure me into a Stale Line sitchoo involving Minnesota Vikings. Never again. I am traumatized.

                        Originally posted by widestrides View Post
                        Arizona +3.5. Now +2.5! That is a huge and very significant move. Still not a sure thing as it is in Dallas and Romo will try to play through the pain.
                        Which did not go well vs. a vastly less competent DEF of Washington but then some say Jerry had to Carpe Diem to reward his investors with a SWEET ML payout + a moment of shining glory for the Texas boy (with the very Texass name) Colt McCoy....slayed a couple birds with a single stone. It IS a whole other country after all.

                        Only thing that makes sense IMO with this AZ/DAL line taking as long as it did to plummet below the key of 3 is if Romo ain't in fact that hurt. Wether he is or not though seems like AZ should, if not handle them at least be able to stay within a field goal. This is the scariest damn game on the board. AZ historically is very competitive with DAL even when AZ sucks which has been often....in years past.

                        Line opening at +4 or even 3.5 combined with what we saw from Dallas just this past Monday and especially a supposedly hurt Romo suggests bookmakers suspect the Cardinals still suck. Whatever the case its just a scary mess of a betting proposition that I'm almost certain will end up costing me in the Mock Hilton unless I can find the discipline to just avoid it. I'm willing to wager right now its Top 2 most taken games in the contest this week.

                        Originally posted by widestrides View Post
                        Giants +3.5. Now +3. Always very significant if it comes off or to the 3.
                        Browns -6.5. Now -7. Not a big move, but somewhat significant.
                        Yes, with "rumblings" about Tampa in this spot, I reckon just cuz what they did to Steelers....not having anything to do with their ability to play football...I did expect this line to nudge the other way...if it had to go anywhere at all. Juicebox-ass 5 Dimes even showing +7½ -140 -7½ +120.

                        Really wish I'd take the Browns here once it comes back down below 7 on Sunday (and in the contest of course....6.5 there) but doubt I have the guts. Too much "whitenoise" on Tampa, WAAAY too many crappy newsletters on a CLE blowout + a shadow of a hint of a suggestion of Reverse Line Movement?....or whatever one'd call that absent any real $$$ being bet on this scary ass game. TB amidst the madness of Browns Madhouse should suck hind tit 'n get plowed by 20+.


                        Originally posted by widestrides View Post
                        Jax +11. Now +10. Not a big move, but somewhat significant.
                        Oakland +15. Now only +14. Not a big move, but somewhat significant.
                        Especially significant considering that BOTH CIN and SEA should be anxious to use this spot to post convincing wins, good for confidence going forward and to appease their grumbling non-appreciative fan base. Especially CIN. People were walking out of the game with 2:43 left and CIN (pretty obviously) gonna come back and win vs. Baltimore cuz Ravens don't stop opponents with under 2 minutes to go...when they need to do that. Advance explanation of why I went down in Flames with Steelers this weekend. In case you found yourself wondering


                        Originally posted by widestrides View Post
                        Miami not such a big move. -1.5 to -2. If it goes to 3, then it's big and you would be wise to listen.
                        Here THAT loud and clear. Already gonna tempt fate with them though....MIAMI. Mostly cuz SD a bit too "obvious" really....despite recent ATS struggles...and SU woes too for that matter. Dolphins better not let me down.

                        Originally posted by widestrides View Post
                        Not saying they all win, but you get good value playing them, and you'd be playing a bad number if you were to pick against these line moves.
                        I'll agree that Stale Line has potential value as a reason to AVOID a pick. i.e. INDY -3 plus THE HOOK (even though it is The GIANTS) but my whole contention is I'm unconvinced Stale Lines on the whole have that much impact on overall results cuz ya still gotta find the correct side. I could be wrong. Number based strategy, mathematics or pretty much anything at all involving numbers and me do not get along well. You broke down several years worth of results for multiple contests. Apparently you and numbers get along. Inconceivable to me how you managed to do that with numbers. I'd have lost my mind, literally.

                        Originally posted by widestrides View Post
                        There have also been some real easy winners on stale lines based on big news. Like when Adrian Peterson went out after the Hilton number came out. Even last week, Houston was an easy pick when the Titans went with the rookie QB after the Hilton line came out. Sure they can backfire, but most of the time if you were to play them all, you will come out ahead. So, don't pick it just because of the line move, but go for it if you were leaning that way anyway.
                        OK naturally BIG moves accompanied by NEWS. Like if someone actually confirms ROMO is OUT which'll prolly not happen + of course moves across key numbers, specially in lower totaled contests.....under specialized circumstances but "but most of the time if you were to play them all, you will come out ahead"?????

                        No way. That Vikes Stale line ='d + a WHOLE 4 POINTS IN VIKE'S FAVOR, like 4 free points on top of the line In a divisional game. At Home.

                        ...and they still managed to get totally smoked.

                        By the LIONS.

                        Before any of us really suspected the Lions had a good defense. Gospel cuz hardly anyone was on Lions in either the Mock here or LVH.

                        Theres what you allude to with "not betting into a bad number."

                        Voila. "Stale Line Strategy" cost us all a win there....with the Lions.

                        Stale Line Strategy giveth and it definitely doth taketh away.

                        At least get someone to show me concrete evidence that Fezzik's wins was due to playing into stale lines. Line info week to week should be somewhere for even that long ago.....SDQL folks would have it I reckon. I ain't saying YOU undertake this mammoth task....get someone savant of numbers, some modern day Galileo to do it.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Short stick high lines this week. Can anyone give me crib notes to the above post?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Stale Line Report card

                            Originally posted by widestrides View Post
                            Saints -2.5. Now -3. (Easy winner) WIN
                            Washington +2.5. Now a Pickem. LOSS by .5 of a point
                            Arizona +3.5. Now +2.5! WIN
                            Cleveland -6.5. Now -7. LOSS by 1.5 of a point
                            Jax +11. Now +10. WIN by 1 point
                            Oakland +15. Now only +14. WIN
                            Miami -1.5 Now at -2/-2.5. WIN
                            Sheer Luck. Whatever "value" this stale line stuff has would have to be measured ALSO by the amount of Wins it steered one off of. Obsessive adherent to avoiding "bad lines" (contest lines that the realtime world had moved against) would FREQUENTLY get put off of a pick they'd intended to make for other very sound reasons cuz the line was "bad" plus I still maintain that late $....PUBLIC SQUARE MONEY will move a line which creates a stale line which then basically leaves one making a selection that is more a PUBLIC FADE than it is a stale line play.

                            Which is all good, of course.....fading Joe Pub but to blindly take picks cuz the line is "stale" is stupid (which we've agreed on, basically) and MAINLY I'm saying that whatever positive comes from stale line playing I'd think would be largely offset by winning picks missed out on due to refusal to play "bad line" + losses taken cuz pick made due to "stale line".

                            This week didn't exactly illustrate this theory very well but over the longhaul big picture I'd think one'd see a very small if any "positive" as result of chasing stale lines, after all the pluses and minuses are squished together. Refiners for use of Stale Lines.....yes. What qualifiers though?

                            By no means am I dismissing out of hand the debate that "value" exists with stale line strategy but I refuse to have any conversation about them that does not also include factoring in winners missed due to avoiding "bad lines" cuz that would be an integral component as to the viability of this premise....or lack of such. Within all the praise of Stale Line strategy one never hears mention of the Wins the strategy cost which aggravates me cuz as I said before it giveth and it taketh away but no one mentions the taketh away part.

                            Originally posted by widestrides View Post
                            Giants +3.5. Now +3. Always very significant if it comes off or to the 3.
                            We will see.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              As wide strides noted, the key is playing it if you originally like the game at the worse number.

                              If you did, then it's an automatic play.

                              I actually thought weeden would be better than he was in that Dallas game so I steered clear of that game anyway myself. Probably missed an easy winner but oh well.

                              Comment

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