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I bet on the AFL every week and would like your input but can't seem to de-code it. Please help me understand and also do you give the results of your opinions? For example....are you saying that Tampa Bay will win by 14.8 points instead of Oly's 10 points? Also, are you saying that Orl will win by 11.4 points instead of Oly's 6? If I'm right about the sides, please explain how you predict the totals. Also, where do you post your record?Thanks. Ri
These are just my own set of power ratings which I come up with, it doesn't mean I believe in them or even play them, it's just what the numbers come up with for each week.
Exactly, the first 2 columns are what my numbers come out to be. The second 2 columns are what Olympics's lines are on Wednesday when they come out and I check them, they may change and usually do a bit as the week goes on. The 5th colums is the difference between my line and olympics, and the 6th colum is the difference between my total, and olympics, with the color to show if I favor the over or under.
I really don't post up many, if any, plays during the season. I just run the numbers bcause it only takes a few minutes a week, and others can use them if they want to help size up their own plays or numbers. If I come up with a play, I will post it here, but primarily if the differences between my numbers and olympics are around 5 or more, I may consider a play, but may not take the time to post it here, or keep a record of it.
The numbers are based on the two opposing teams points scored, points given up, turnover margins, and home vs. away wins and losses all thrown together in a formula I devised a few years ago. These seem to me to be the most imortant stats in the AFL.
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