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My life has forever changed as a result of the Hall of Fame game. The next time my team is getting housed, I will pray for lightning! And thus with a rather bizarre start, the preseason has begun.
Preseason is the most deceptive piece of crap you will ever stuff down your own throat. I tell myself this every year and every year I get suckered into this. For example, I think Moss ruled the preseason last year and this convinced me the “Randy Ratio” was going to be a huge success. I drafted him 1st in one FF league. I remember one year when everyone was bragging about how quickly Randall Cunningham had mastered the complicated West Coast offense. He rang it up in the preseason too. But by week 2 of the REAL season, he was completely lost in the system.
If you tell a layman you dropped serious wood on the preseason, they will think you have completely lost your mind. It is the truest art of taking the most miniscule leaf of information from the bottom of the sports page and expanding that into a 60 minute opera. But many a gambler will tell you preseason can be some of the best bets ever. Hey, wouldn’t you liked to have had the Redskins last year when they whooped up on the 49ers oveseas? Do you think that was “luck”? Not really. Preseason is one of the few times when the outcome can almost be scripted. I have tried many different strategies over the last few preseasons and have gone on huge winning streaks and huge losing streaks. Luck? I think not. Here’s some strategies I have employed that were clear losers.
“The preseason games are all luck, so just take the points and you will win.”
I got housed one year playing things this way. I think Vegas does a pretty damn good job finding the favorites and usually the only danger is how close many of these games finish up (that’s not luck either). There is good value in many of the favorites.
“The only team that has a motive to win this game is the home team, so just play them.”
A few years back, the home team advantage early in the season was very strong. The QBs in the league were very weak and few could put together a good enough game to win on the road. In the last few seasons though, I’ve noticed a reversal and a decided drop to perfect linearity from the playoffs backwards to the preseason. IE, the earlier it is in the season, the weaker the home field advantage. Truthfully, this makes more sense. As teams peak towards the end of the season, there ability to defend at home improves. Taking this theory into the preseason, there is truthfully no weaker time for the home team. Sure, they want to win, but they rarely will pull out all the stops to do it!
“Coach says they want to win”
Lip service. Sure, they want to win. They would love to see their 4th string QB whoop it up on the other teams starters, which is probably what he intends to try. Good luck! When one team is gearing up in the press for a preseason game, the other team is likely to get wind. They will meet force with force. No one truly wants to show up and get run over. And this certainly won’t help you when some unknown guy on the other team returns a punt for a TD, which will happen too.
“They have just one center for the game!!! The others are all banged up.”
That last center will play like a pro bowler. Forget about it! Ambulance chasing rarely works in the regular season, and it is even more hopeless in the preseason.
“They have a big-time QB battle so both QBs will play GREAT!!!!”
No, they will have an interception contest to see who can choke more. QB battles rarely bring out the best in both players and often result in bad games by both of them. The mismash of lines that seems to result from these tryouts often seems to add to the difficulties.
What does work? I don’t think there is one simple flatout philosphy. There are a combination of things that you look for and – as usual – there is a bit of a gut feel to the whole thing. I do think the results tend to correlate more to LAST season than to THIS season. (See preseason is a pile of crap above) Lets hypothesis that last year’s echelon teams probably feel they have their pieces in place while the lesser teams tend to be searching for solutions in these games harder. I also feel that if you have crappy starters, the backups probably aren’t too great either.
I like vet qbs who rip it up in preseason. Sure, they will get their 7 and be done, but they will often keep playing UNTIL they get that 7. Momentum does seem to carry to the other units, so a good outing by the starters can often set the tone for a nice comfortable rout. Some information can prove worthy: "we will play our starters through 3 quarters even though the other team plans to pull out after 3 plays" might be a worthwhile wager. QBs like the Baltimore rookie and Skins Rob Johnsons are still very lost and likely won't play well anytime soon. You also have to like new coaches who frequently put an overemphasis on winning. I like road teams and favorites too, and I like crappy teams that will take any chance to add a W next to their name. Find the right combination of these elements and you might have a sizeable profit to lose on the 1st Skins/Jets game!
Preseason is the most deceptive piece of crap you will ever stuff down your own throat. I tell myself this every year and every year I get suckered into this. For example, I think Moss ruled the preseason last year and this convinced me the “Randy Ratio” was going to be a huge success. I drafted him 1st in one FF league. I remember one year when everyone was bragging about how quickly Randall Cunningham had mastered the complicated West Coast offense. He rang it up in the preseason too. But by week 2 of the REAL season, he was completely lost in the system.
If you tell a layman you dropped serious wood on the preseason, they will think you have completely lost your mind. It is the truest art of taking the most miniscule leaf of information from the bottom of the sports page and expanding that into a 60 minute opera. But many a gambler will tell you preseason can be some of the best bets ever. Hey, wouldn’t you liked to have had the Redskins last year when they whooped up on the 49ers oveseas? Do you think that was “luck”? Not really. Preseason is one of the few times when the outcome can almost be scripted. I have tried many different strategies over the last few preseasons and have gone on huge winning streaks and huge losing streaks. Luck? I think not. Here’s some strategies I have employed that were clear losers.
“The preseason games are all luck, so just take the points and you will win.”
I got housed one year playing things this way. I think Vegas does a pretty damn good job finding the favorites and usually the only danger is how close many of these games finish up (that’s not luck either). There is good value in many of the favorites.
“The only team that has a motive to win this game is the home team, so just play them.”
A few years back, the home team advantage early in the season was very strong. The QBs in the league were very weak and few could put together a good enough game to win on the road. In the last few seasons though, I’ve noticed a reversal and a decided drop to perfect linearity from the playoffs backwards to the preseason. IE, the earlier it is in the season, the weaker the home field advantage. Truthfully, this makes more sense. As teams peak towards the end of the season, there ability to defend at home improves. Taking this theory into the preseason, there is truthfully no weaker time for the home team. Sure, they want to win, but they rarely will pull out all the stops to do it!
“Coach says they want to win”
Lip service. Sure, they want to win. They would love to see their 4th string QB whoop it up on the other teams starters, which is probably what he intends to try. Good luck! When one team is gearing up in the press for a preseason game, the other team is likely to get wind. They will meet force with force. No one truly wants to show up and get run over. And this certainly won’t help you when some unknown guy on the other team returns a punt for a TD, which will happen too.
“They have just one center for the game!!! The others are all banged up.”
That last center will play like a pro bowler. Forget about it! Ambulance chasing rarely works in the regular season, and it is even more hopeless in the preseason.
“They have a big-time QB battle so both QBs will play GREAT!!!!”
No, they will have an interception contest to see who can choke more. QB battles rarely bring out the best in both players and often result in bad games by both of them. The mismash of lines that seems to result from these tryouts often seems to add to the difficulties.
What does work? I don’t think there is one simple flatout philosphy. There are a combination of things that you look for and – as usual – there is a bit of a gut feel to the whole thing. I do think the results tend to correlate more to LAST season than to THIS season. (See preseason is a pile of crap above) Lets hypothesis that last year’s echelon teams probably feel they have their pieces in place while the lesser teams tend to be searching for solutions in these games harder. I also feel that if you have crappy starters, the backups probably aren’t too great either.
I like vet qbs who rip it up in preseason. Sure, they will get their 7 and be done, but they will often keep playing UNTIL they get that 7. Momentum does seem to carry to the other units, so a good outing by the starters can often set the tone for a nice comfortable rout. Some information can prove worthy: "we will play our starters through 3 quarters even though the other team plans to pull out after 3 plays" might be a worthwhile wager. QBs like the Baltimore rookie and Skins Rob Johnsons are still very lost and likely won't play well anytime soon. You also have to like new coaches who frequently put an overemphasis on winning. I like road teams and favorites too, and I like crappy teams that will take any chance to add a W next to their name. Find the right combination of these elements and you might have a sizeable profit to lose on the 1st Skins/Jets game!
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