Tweet
Saturday: Duke (+15) at Virginia - Analysis
Play for Saturday night:
Duke (+15) at Virginia - 4:00pm Pacific - Saturday, August 30
The Blue Devils showed significant improvement last season in the ACC. They were much better than their 2-10 record of last season indicates. They played competitively vs Virginia (lost by just 5 despite -2 turnovers, but had more first downs, total yards, and time of possession), NC State (lost by 2, had more first downs, total yards, and time of possession), Clemson (lost by 3, blew 14 point 4th quarter lead), and North Carolina (lost by 2 on last second field goal). They improved greatly in the trenches and produced their best rushing numbers in over 10 years on both sides of the ball. They outgained 10 of their 12 opponents on the ground last season! They did not outrush a single opponent in 2001. The bad news is they still have lost a record 25 straight ACC games, but the good news is they return a remarkable 20 starters from last years team!
Duke returns all 11 starters on offense. Junior QB Adam Smith is back for his second year as a full time starter. He had pretty decent numbers in his first full season completing 57% of his passes for 2,031 yards and a 12 to 9 TD to INT ratio. Smith had his best performances in the latter parts of the year. He did not have much of a receiving corps last year and lost top WR Reggie Love to injury after the fourth game but the entire starting receiving group (including an eager Love) returns this year and will be improved. All five starters return on the offensive line which produced 158 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry last year. Both numbers are team bests in the last 10+ seasons. Power back Alex Wade (tied Duke record with six 100+ yard games) even earned 2nd team ACC honors. Wade and speedy senior Chris Douglas both return in the backfield and provide an excellent speed & power combo. All this unit would have to do is improve on their red zone conversion rate and they will easily surpass last years scoring output. With all of the returning experience I expect at least that.
Duke returns 9 starters on defense as well as numerous quality backups who are fighting for starting jobs. They lost 1st team ACC DE Shawn Johnson and a good LB in Jamyon Small but return everyone else. They held four quality teams (NC State, Virginia, Clemson, East Carolina) to under 100 yards rushing last year. Their 121 yard per game and 3.4 yard per carry averages were the lowest allowed in over ten years here. Five of the top six tacklers return including team leader LB Ryan Fowler and DT stud Matt Zielinski (18 tackles for loss, honorable mention ACC last year). Much of the units improvement can be credited to well regarded defensive coordinator Ted Roof who took over last season. This will be their second full season in the Roof system and with all the experience back even more good results should be expected.
Virginia had a very successful 9-5 season a year ago, but that aside they were last in the ACC in total offense (357.1 yards per game) and next-to-last in total defense (424.6). Virginia was outgained in six of its nine victories and often lived dangerously winning four games in which they either trailed or were tied going into the fourth quarter in successive weeks. They won five games by five points or less and they benefited largely from a +15 turnover ratio on the season. Virginia does have 15 starters back from last year but they are still a young team with only 12 projected upperclassmen starters (lowest in ACC) compared to Duke who will field 18. Virginia has been hyped up by preseason publications & rankings and could easily come into this game a bit cocky and overconfident.
In last years meeting, Duke completely stuffed the UVA running game holding them to just 2 yards rushing on 20 attempts. Virginia was able to narrowly win 22-17 thanks to +2 turnovers, a productive passing game, and a key 2nd half flea flicker pass. While Duke returns its entire secondary from last year, Virginia lost possibly their best offensive weapon in WR Billy McMullen (3rd round NFL pick) and suffered a big blow recently when projected top WR Michael McGrew was lost for the season due to injury in practice. Also out is FB Jason Snelling (seizures). This trio combined for 15 catches for 225 yards in last years meeting! They will be missed as well will offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave who left for Jacksonville of the NFL. Cavs featured all-purpose back Wali Lundy has been slowed by a hamstring injury but will play. Virginia returns 7 defensive starters and has some big time talent but they are young and will have to replace their top three tacklers from last season including 1st team ACC performer Angelo Crowell (155 tackles led team).
Pundits wonder if Duke will breakthrough and win an ACC game this season, but players on this team will tell you wholeheartedly their goal is to make a bowl game. That is not out of reach in my opinion although playing at Tennessee in November will not help their chances of finishing with a winning record. Blue Devils have been fortunate to not lose any players to injury in the preseason. They are set to go. This team only lost five lettermen from last season and looks to be by far the best team hot seat head coach Carl Franks has had here. They finished 5-1 ATS as road dogs last season. Duke could have very easily beaten Virginia last year and with almost everyone back will at least be competitive enough to stay within this big spread today. Take the points.
Duke 1 UNIT
We have two additional plays going this weekend. Visit our website and join our mailing list to receive annual ONE MONTH SERVICE FREE TRIAL.
http://www.handicapper.net
Good luck,
Edward
Right Angle Sports
NCAA Handicapping Information, Insight, Picks, and Analysis since 1996.
Duke (+15) at Virginia - 4:00pm Pacific - Saturday, August 30
The Blue Devils showed significant improvement last season in the ACC. They were much better than their 2-10 record of last season indicates. They played competitively vs Virginia (lost by just 5 despite -2 turnovers, but had more first downs, total yards, and time of possession), NC State (lost by 2, had more first downs, total yards, and time of possession), Clemson (lost by 3, blew 14 point 4th quarter lead), and North Carolina (lost by 2 on last second field goal). They improved greatly in the trenches and produced their best rushing numbers in over 10 years on both sides of the ball. They outgained 10 of their 12 opponents on the ground last season! They did not outrush a single opponent in 2001. The bad news is they still have lost a record 25 straight ACC games, but the good news is they return a remarkable 20 starters from last years team!
Duke returns all 11 starters on offense. Junior QB Adam Smith is back for his second year as a full time starter. He had pretty decent numbers in his first full season completing 57% of his passes for 2,031 yards and a 12 to 9 TD to INT ratio. Smith had his best performances in the latter parts of the year. He did not have much of a receiving corps last year and lost top WR Reggie Love to injury after the fourth game but the entire starting receiving group (including an eager Love) returns this year and will be improved. All five starters return on the offensive line which produced 158 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry last year. Both numbers are team bests in the last 10+ seasons. Power back Alex Wade (tied Duke record with six 100+ yard games) even earned 2nd team ACC honors. Wade and speedy senior Chris Douglas both return in the backfield and provide an excellent speed & power combo. All this unit would have to do is improve on their red zone conversion rate and they will easily surpass last years scoring output. With all of the returning experience I expect at least that.
Duke returns 9 starters on defense as well as numerous quality backups who are fighting for starting jobs. They lost 1st team ACC DE Shawn Johnson and a good LB in Jamyon Small but return everyone else. They held four quality teams (NC State, Virginia, Clemson, East Carolina) to under 100 yards rushing last year. Their 121 yard per game and 3.4 yard per carry averages were the lowest allowed in over ten years here. Five of the top six tacklers return including team leader LB Ryan Fowler and DT stud Matt Zielinski (18 tackles for loss, honorable mention ACC last year). Much of the units improvement can be credited to well regarded defensive coordinator Ted Roof who took over last season. This will be their second full season in the Roof system and with all the experience back even more good results should be expected.
Virginia had a very successful 9-5 season a year ago, but that aside they were last in the ACC in total offense (357.1 yards per game) and next-to-last in total defense (424.6). Virginia was outgained in six of its nine victories and often lived dangerously winning four games in which they either trailed or were tied going into the fourth quarter in successive weeks. They won five games by five points or less and they benefited largely from a +15 turnover ratio on the season. Virginia does have 15 starters back from last year but they are still a young team with only 12 projected upperclassmen starters (lowest in ACC) compared to Duke who will field 18. Virginia has been hyped up by preseason publications & rankings and could easily come into this game a bit cocky and overconfident.
In last years meeting, Duke completely stuffed the UVA running game holding them to just 2 yards rushing on 20 attempts. Virginia was able to narrowly win 22-17 thanks to +2 turnovers, a productive passing game, and a key 2nd half flea flicker pass. While Duke returns its entire secondary from last year, Virginia lost possibly their best offensive weapon in WR Billy McMullen (3rd round NFL pick) and suffered a big blow recently when projected top WR Michael McGrew was lost for the season due to injury in practice. Also out is FB Jason Snelling (seizures). This trio combined for 15 catches for 225 yards in last years meeting! They will be missed as well will offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave who left for Jacksonville of the NFL. Cavs featured all-purpose back Wali Lundy has been slowed by a hamstring injury but will play. Virginia returns 7 defensive starters and has some big time talent but they are young and will have to replace their top three tacklers from last season including 1st team ACC performer Angelo Crowell (155 tackles led team).
Pundits wonder if Duke will breakthrough and win an ACC game this season, but players on this team will tell you wholeheartedly their goal is to make a bowl game. That is not out of reach in my opinion although playing at Tennessee in November will not help their chances of finishing with a winning record. Blue Devils have been fortunate to not lose any players to injury in the preseason. They are set to go. This team only lost five lettermen from last season and looks to be by far the best team hot seat head coach Carl Franks has had here. They finished 5-1 ATS as road dogs last season. Duke could have very easily beaten Virginia last year and with almost everyone back will at least be competitive enough to stay within this big spread today. Take the points.
Duke 1 UNIT
We have two additional plays going this weekend. Visit our website and join our mailing list to receive annual ONE MONTH SERVICE FREE TRIAL.
http://www.handicapper.net
Good luck,
Edward
Right Angle Sports
NCAA Handicapping Information, Insight, Picks, and Analysis since 1996.
Comment