Football Newsletters 9/2/03-9/8/03 (update #8)

[The Sports_Guru]

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[The Sports_Guru]

WINNING POINTS NEWSLETTER

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:

NFL BEST BETS:
**** Atlanta over *Dallas by 15
*** Indianapolis over *Cleveland by 14

NFL PREFERRED PLAYS:
* Baltimore over *Pittsburgh by 4
* New England over *Buffalo by 7

NCAA BEST BETS:
**** L.S.U. over ARIZONA* by 27
*** OREGON STATE over FRESNO STATE* by 22 (Friday)

NCAA PREFERRED PLAYS:
Iowa* over Buffalo by 17
U.N.L.V. over Kansas* by 23
Oregon* over Nevada by 1
Connecticut over Army* by 21

NFL FOOTBALL

****BEST BET

Atlanta over *Dallas by 15

The Cowboys not only have a new head coach, but a new offensive coordinator and quarterback coach as well. They also have the same inept quarterbacks and no ground game. Even without Mike Vick, the Falcons are a solid team, much better than the rebuilding Cowboys. Bill Parcells is a proven winner. He’ll eventually steer the Cowboys in the right direction after three consecutive 5-11 seasons. Right now, though, Parcells’ priority is building a foundation. He’s under no pressure to win this season. Even an impatient owner like Jerry Jones realizes it’s going to take time for the Cowboys to get back to developing a winning system. The Falcons, on the other hand, have legitimate playoff hopes. They have two good runners, Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, a solid defense and an upgraded wide receiving corps. Backup QB Doug Johnson is reliable. He proved he could do the job last season filling in for Vick when he led the Falcons to a road victory against the Giants, completing 19-of-25 passes for 257 yards a touchdown. This is a chance for the Falcons to silence those critics who call them just a one-man team. They will have a real chip on their shoulder and be motivated to prove they are worthy of respect. Parcells has to keep things simple on offense for now. Falcons defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is one of the best. He’ll have his defense prepared for this rather easy challenge. This will be the Falcons’ second year playing in Phillips’ 3-4 scheme. They came up with an NFL second-leading 39 takeaways last year. Being more familiar with the defensive scheme and adding secondary depth should make the Falcons even better this season. ATLANTA 21-6.

***BEST BET

Indianapolis over *Cleveland by 14

Since coming back to the NFL in 1999, the Browns have lost each of their opening games, all of which happened to be at home. Look for that streak to continue. Coincidentally, the Colts have won their last four season-openers. But enough of a history lesson. Let’s talk about practical matters. Let’s talk about the Cleveland defense, or shall we say lack of a defense. The Browns not only don’t have a cornerback good enough to stay with Marvin Harrison, but they will be breaking in entirely new linebackers. These linebackers – Andra Davis, Ben Taylor and Kevin Bentley – all are second-year players. None of them has ever started an NFL game before. They probably won’t get much help either from an underachieving defensive line. So look for Peyton Manning to pick apart this Browns defense, which could turn out to be one of the worst units in the NFL. Also look for Edgerrin James to have a big game now that he’s two years removed from knee surgery and free of ankle and rib injuries. The Browns ranked 10th from the bottom in rush defense last year surrendering 128 yards per game. This is an off surface for the Colts, but they have gone ‘over’ the total in nine of their last 11 grass games. Certainly the Colts figure to put up lots of points. The key is if the Browns can match them. Coach Butch Davis made the right choice naming Kelly Holcomb as Cleveland’s starting quarterback. The Browns have an explosive offense, too. The difference is Indy’s defense. It was improved last season in Tony Dungy’s first year, and will be more instinctive in Year 2. Holcomb has a big arm, but a strength’s of Dungy’s zone-based defense is taking away big plays. INDIANAPOLIS 38-24.

Baltimore over *Pittsburgh by 4

Only our lack of faith in Baltimore’s two quarterbacks keep us from making this a Best Bet. Everything else looks good for the Ravens. The Steelers had a horrible training camp with injuries, rain and problems with their field. Their defense has looked soft, particularly the secondary. The Ravens are the tougher team, which can’t be underestimated when playing on the road. The Ravens return almost of their starters and have LB Ray Lewis healthy. That can’t be underestimated. They also added rookie pass rushing specialist Terrell Suggs. The Steelers lost left tackle Wayne Gandy, their best pass blocker, during the offseason. Considering QB Tommy Maddox’s lack of mobility, this could be a serious problem for Pittsburgh, especially facing the Ravens' outstanding pass rush. Baltimore also rates an edge in special teams. The Steelers had four kicks blocked last season, and gave up 11.6 yards per punt return. While the Steelers have won the last four in the series, with each game going above the total, the Ravens are 19-9-1 ATS as a ‘dog under Brian Billick. The Steelers are only 4-11-1 ATS when laying points. If the Ravens get any kind of consistency at quarterback, they could be the surprise team of the AFC. BALTIMORE 24-20.

New England over *Buffalo by 7

Even if the Patriots didn’t go 4-0 in preseason with QB Tom Brady throwing six TD passes and no INTs we would like the Pats here. New England coach Bill Belichick owns Drew Bledsoe, his former quarterback. The Patriots picked off five Bledsoe passes last year in sweeping Buffalo. Belichick knows Bledsoe’s tendencies. He’s gotten inside his head where Bledsoe is mentally bothered. The Patriots have gotten bigger and faster on defense, adding massive nose guard Ted Washington, speedy linebacker Rosevelt Colvin and hard-hitting safety Rodney Harrison. Defenses caught up to the Bills during the second half of last season. Only twice in the last eight games did Buffalo manage to break 20 points. This year the Bills don’t have Peerless Price to take the double-pressure off Eric Moulds. New England also has a special teams edge in kicking and returns. The Patriots are 13-6 ATS as a ‘dog the past two years, while the Bills have covered just five of their past 22 division games. The Bills also look improved on defense, but have a long ways go having ranked last in turnovers forced, fourth from the bottom in rush defense and 27th in points allowed. Note to totals players, the last eight in this series have gone ‘under.’ NEW ENGLAND 23-16.

NCAA FOOTBALL

****BEST BET

L.S.U. over ARIZONA* by 27

Beating up on U.T.E.P. might create the illusion that things are on the way back in Tucson. Nothing could be further from the truth. The sad bottom line is that keeping John Mackovic around the university may have created at least one more “lost season”, and it will become apparent this night. An off-season of turmoil could so bad that spring practice had to be pushed back three full weeks, while Mackovic could assemble the necessary coaching staff (new coordinators for the offense, defense and special teams),. Some of the transitions have not been easy – especially a switch to the 3-4 defensive schemes of Mike Hankwitz, which has been hampered by the loss of five DL since spring practice. Add inexperience at QB, and the loss of top WR Andrae Thurman (academics), and there is not a unit anywhere on the field that can be called the strength of the team. Meanwhile L.S.U. has legitimate national title aspirations, and matches up in ways that lead to dominance this night. The Tigers have a deep and veteran OL that will command the line of scrimmage against that brittle Wildcat defensive front, and a secondary that will start four seniors can confuse Nic Costa and Ryan O’Hara throughout. And note that getting blown out at home is nothing new for these Wildcats – in the ultimate sign of how far things have fallen under Mackovic, they have lost six home games by 14 points or more in the last two seasons. Add another here, with the Tigers well-focused in between two walkover opponents. L.S.U. 41-14.

***BEST BET

OREGON STATE over FRESNO STATE* by 22 (Friday)

After Dennis Erickson received a great deal of credit, and a subsequent promotion to the N.F.L., for taking advantage of a rebuilding process in Corvallis that Mike Riley had started, it is now time for Riley to come home and be recognized as the true architect of the Bear resurgence. He lead Corvallis High School to the state championship 33 years ago, and his father was an assistant here under Dee Andros at that time, which makes this more than a “temporary” return after his stint in the N.F.L., and also makes this televised showcase a major game for both him and his players. The latter remember being embarrassed by 20 points here in their opener two years ago, and even after thrashing Fresno State 59-19 at home LY there is still some unfinished business at this site. The job is made easier by the Bulldogs being too physically under-manned to compete properly. They get two less prep days than the Beavers, and that is accentuated by having to travel back from Knoxville after being physically pushed around by Tennessee. Because of injuries there were only eight players in the OL rotation, only one of which had ever started a Division I game before, and that corps can now add bruises to inexperience as debilitating factors here against a solid Beaver defensive front. Meanwhile Riley has a veteran blocking corps that makes this offense particularly difficult to defend this year, between Stephen Jackson’s slashes between the tackles and the ability of strong-armed Derek Anderson to get the ball deep down the field. OREGON ST. 38-16.

Iowa* over Buffalo by 17

We were not able to cash a ticket with Miami O. vs. these Hawkeyes in the same spot on the page last week, but it took a couple of critical interceptions for that to happen (two in particular that ended up being worth 14 points), and the underdog actually finished with a 22-17 edge in first downs. The bottom line is that this Iowa squad lacks the explosiveness of its predecessor, and that can become magnified even more when Kirk Ferentz goes with his conservative play calling. After a game in which they ran the ball 40 times and only threw 19 passes, they could actually be even more vanilla here. Certainly no special inspiration comes from facing this opponent, while on deck they have revenge for their only regular season defeat of 2002, a loss to Iowa State that may have kept them from playing for the national championship. The in-state rival Cyclones will command far too much attention for them to build any kind of margin, while run-first Buffalo also helps to keep the tempo down. IOWA 30-13.

U.N.L.V. over Kansas* by 23

We told you last week just how bad these Jayhawks were when we pegged Northwestern as a BEST BET at the top of these pages, and the game flow might tell us that Mark Mangino’s team is even worse than we had thought. Imagine playing that level of opponent at home and getting TD’s on an interception return and a blocked punt, and still not being able to cover? For the game they were badly out-played, trailing 25-14 in first downs. Now an improved Rebel squad can take full advantage of all of those weaknesses. John Robinson can use the talents of Larry Croom either running from scrimmage or catching passes out of the backfield (ran for 97 yards and caught nine passes vs. Toledo), and Kevin Nantkes gives him the pure pocket QB that Jason Thomas was not. Northwestern both ran and passed for over 200 yards on this field Saturday night, controlling the ball for nearly 40 minutes, and the Rebels should physically dominate at the point of attack vs. this unimposing defensive front. U.N.L.V. 37-14.

Oregon* over Nevada by 1

With 170 yards under his belt in his return last week following ACL surgery, it looks like Chance Kretschmer might be even stronger (has put on 20 pounds of muscle) than he was in that 1,732 yard performance as a freshman two years ago. That means a chance for major strides from the Wolfpack this season, and an excellent opportunity to compete to the final gun here. With Kretschmer attacking a soft and possibly unfocused Oregon defensive interior (looking ahead to that major showdown on this field vs. Michigan next week) Nevada can consistently move the chains and work the clock, a dream for a double figure underdog backer, and in his fourth year Chris Tormey has finally built a defense that can compete. The Wolfpack shaved 8.3 points and 75 yards per game off of their allowances LY, and now return 10 starters from that vastly improved unit. And while Oregon is caught in between a pair of nationally televised showcase games, Nevada is off next week, making this of a bowl-game intensity for the underdog. OREGON 27-26.

Connecticut over Army* by 21

Randy Edsall and his staff of assistants (everyone returned from LY, which helps to create early cohesion) have done a magnificent job of preparing the Connecticut program for its ascent to Division I, and the way that they were able to man-handle Indiana last week is a sign of both the physical talent on hand, and also the confidence level. Meanwhile the oddsmakers are not even close to catching up – the Huskies are now on a run in which they have won their last four lined games by identical counts of 121 points on the scoreboard, and 121 vs. the pointspread. That momentum should continue on this short trip to the Hudson, as they take advantage of a young Army team (only three senior starters) that does not have an early game under its belt, a particular problem for an inexperienced OL that only returns one returning starter. Vastly under-valued Huskies were 6-0 ATS on the road LY, and 10-2 ATS the last two seasons, with one of the non-covers coming by just 1.5 points. CONNECTICUT 38-17.

[The Sports_Guru]

The Gold Sheet Football Newsletter

The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!! Technical Play of the Week
TEXAS TECH over New Mexico...Red Raiders have won and covered last 3 years vs. Lobos and last five overall in series dating to ’95. Meanwhile, UNM 4- 10 vs. line its last 14 away from Albuquerque.

NFL KEY RELEASES:
CAROLINA by 15 over Jacksonville
MINNESOTA by 5 over Green Bay
OVER 48 points in the New Orleans-Seattle game

NCAA KEY RELEASES:
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4
MEMPHIS by 3 over Mississippi
PURDUE by 22 over Bowling Green
FLORIDA STATE by 27 over Maryland

Detailed Writeups:

CAROLINA 24 - Jacksonville 9—Bright, new HC Jack Del Rio (Car. def. coord. LY) has made great initial impression in Jacksonville, winning 3 of 4 exhibitions & becoming well-liked immediately as a personable change vs. the ever-serious Tom Coughlin. However, this is an extremely tough matchup for Del Rio’s rebuilding team, as Panther coach John Fox will unleash his voracious front four of Julius Peppers, Brentson Buckner, Kris Jenkins, and Mike Rucker (combo 39 sacks LY) full bore on Jaguar QBs (How long will Brunell be the starter; or, even, with Jags?), who will not have the benefit of star WR Jimmy Smith (suspension). Car. sure it can hold more 4th- Q leads TY with hammering RB Stephen Davis on Board. (99-Jacksonville -9' 22-20...SR: Jacksonville 2-0).

Minnesota 28 - GREEN BAY 23—Not surprisingly, scouts report these two bitter rivals have been focused primarily on this game for much of the preseason (Mike Tice’s house is painted green & gold, to constantly remind him of the team he has to beat). But the matchups appear to favor the ascending Vikings (8-5 SU last 13 LY) over the descending Packers (allowed 4.8 ypc LY; 31st in NFL). Tice reportedly loves his big OL, especially 6-8 LT Bryant McKinnie (a holdout first part of LY). Minny has a new, more aggressive, less complex def. scheme under new def. coord. George O’Leary.

OVER 48 total points SEATTLE 31 - New Orleans 30—Best option in this anticipated shootout is probably the “over.” After all, Seattle’s offense came together for 29 ppg last 6 games LY, with several opposing def. coords. talking about Mike Holmgren’s clever schemes & calls. Seahawks went “over” 5 of those 6, while N.O.went “over” 12 of 16 LY and is 21-9 “over” on the road. Both sought to help their defenses in the offseason, but Seattle has already lost starting DT Chad Eaton (knee). Saintsinsiders are calling top draft pick DT Jonathon Sullivan an initial disappointment. Offense should rule, with neither defense trustworthy.

[The Sports_Guru]

THE SPORTS REPORTER

SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS:

BEST BETS
NEW ENGLAND over *BUFFALO by 13
INDIANAPOLIS over *CLEVELAND by 10

RECOMMENDED BETS
*WASHINGTON over N.Y. JETS by 9
*MIAMI over HOUSTON by 5
*TENNESSEE over OAKLAND by 10

SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS:

SUPER BEST BET
*OKLAHOMA STATE over WYOMING by 35

BEST BETS
*FLORIDA STATE over MARYLAND by 2
*MIAMI over FLORIDA by 21

RECOMMENDED BETS
*MICHIGAN over HOUSTON by 19
AIR FORCE over NORTHWESTERN by 1
SYRACUSE over *NORTH CAROLINA by 10
AUBURN over *GEORGIA TECH by 15
*OREGON over NEVADA by 11
OKLAHOMA over *ALABAMA by 15

NCAA FOOTBALL PLAYS:

BEST BET
NEW ENGLAND over *BUFFALO by 13

When the best head coach in the NFL takes points, it’s hard not to use him. Bill Belichick woke up one morning in the winter of 2001, discovered that his then back-up, former starting QB Drew Bledsoe had signed on with division rival Buffalo, and thought ‘couldn’t have planned it any better myself.’ Keenly aware of Bledsoe’s flaws and true worth, Belichick’s defense beat Bledsoe and the Bills by an average of 20 points more than the point-spread in two meetings last season despite ranking 23rd in the NFL in yards allowed. In the second meeting, Belichick’s defense intercepted Bledsoe four times, keyed by pressure up the middle. This season, the New England defense has been bolstered by the additions of OLB Roosevelt Colvin, and big DT Ted Washington. Colvin had 10.5 sacks last season for the Bears. He landed on Bledsoe twice in a Bears-Bills game. Now Bledsoe, who plays with a case of Beli-Head harder to shake than a bad sinus infection, has no idea where the pressure will be coming from, or when. And if the loss of Peerless Price from his wide receiving corps means Eric Moulds becomes easier to cover, then Bledsoe will
be eating the ball for negative yards or forcing it somewhere else. Fumble-prone RB Travis Henry is one bump into Washington away from a turnover, and Washington, who missed the Bills game when injured for Chicago last season, plays with some personal revenge against the team that let him go a couple of years ago. The Bills were one of the most penalty-prone teams in the NFL last season, ranking right next to habitually-penalized Oakland and expansion Houston. Mistake-prone
favorite that played an easy schedule last season, vs. better-coached team that won nine games despite playing the murderous schedule of a Super Bowl winner. NEW ENGLAND, 26-13.

BEST BET
INDIANAPOLIS over *CLEVELAND by 10
Cleveland backed into the playoffs last season and was widely considered one of the NFL’s success stories with a straight-up record of 9-7 and a post-season appearance. Former Cowboys head coach Dave Campo has been brought in as defensive coordinator this season with hopes of getting Cleveland to the next level, but he will have a depleted unit to work with. It’s an all new, inexperienced linebacking corps replacing last year’s trip of Earl Holmes, Jamir Miller, and Dwayne Rudd. Until the defense eventually jells and learns the ins-and-outs of Campo’s new schemes, the Browns defense should be expected to struggle, and that’s very bad news this week with Peyton Manning and the high-powered Colts offense coming to town. Indy will get a huge shot in the arm this season with running back Edgerrin James expected to be back at full strength for the first time in two years. Last year, a Colts team that was faltering baldy down the stretch waltzed into Cleveland as favorites and handed the Browns their only December loss. This week, Indy visits Cleveland with James at 100 percent, and an additional, difference-making tight end (Dallas Clark). With those guys in the offense, Marvin Harrison can
resume being a home-run threat instead of a possession receiver, which they needed him to be last season. Kelly Holcomb of the Browns won the starting QB job over Tim Couch, but he was once Peyton Manning’s back-up. Peyton ain’t gonna let this guy beat him. No way. INDIANAPOLIS, 30-20.

RECOMMENDED
*WASHINGTON over N.Y. JETS by 9The cross-town rival Giants knocked out the Jets’ starting Golden Child QB Chad Pennington in Week 3 of the pre-season, so the Jetsons now go with 40-year-old Vinnie Testaverde at QB. When he started at the beginning of last season, the Jets’ margins against the point-spread were –3, -38, -21 and –22 before they ripped off his helmet and gave him a note pad.Vinnie didn’t get many reps this pre-season with the first-string offense. New York lost four big free agents to the Redskins including kicker John Hall,
kick-returner Chad Morton, wide receiver Laveranues Coles, and starting guard Randy Thomas. They lost points, catches, speed, and a blocker. With the loss of Coles, the Jets, must try to rely on Testaverde and Wayne Crebet to power the passing attack along with free agent pick-up Curtis Conway. They can’t use the West Coast offense as much,because Vinnie can’t run it as well as Pennington did. Curtis Martin and defense will have to get it done. Can it? The results may not be pretty, especially this early in the season. Besides raiding the Jets, the Redskins also bolstered their offensive line and apparently put more speed in the offensive backfield with Trung Canidate. The Washington defensive line still has problems, but the pressure is on second year heads coach Steve Spurrier to win and win early. The Jets, meanwhile, can afford to lose a non conference road game while looking ahead to next week’s division rivalry game against Miami and trying to figure out how to negotiate the rest of their season with the hand they were dealt. WASHINGTON, 22-13.

RECOMMENDED
*MIAMI over HOUSTON by 5
Everybody in the world knows that the Houston offense has been ordinary at best. But when the Texans beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14 last year, they were 31.5 points better than the spread without topping 100 yards in total offense. Dom Capers zoneblitzed the NFL in his second season as head coach of the expansion Carolina Panthers in 1996, all the way to the NFC Championship Game against Green Bay. Can lightning
strike twice? When you have nasty, experienced defensive players who cover, contain, hit, create turnovers and believe, your offense doesn’t need to move chains all the time. Miami’s offense isn’t the fastest around. And with rookie Wade Smith starting at left tackle for Miami, Capers knows very well – and so should you — that the opportunity to send
Dolphins’ QB Jay Fiedler to the sidelines with a blind-side hit is there. When you need to cover double-digits with a caretaker like Fiedler at QB, in a field-position vs. field-position mindset, then you’d better make sure that your team won’t blink. In Capers vs. Dave Wannstedt, the likely blinker is Wannstedt. Like young racehorses, young NFL quarterbacks
often make their biggest improvement in their second trip around the track. In this case, it’s second season. Think Peyton Manning. Donovan McNabb. Daunte Culpepper. David Carr was cut out to be three times the player Jay Fiedler is. This is a play on the road dog. MIAMI, 17-12.

RECOMMENDED
*TENNESSEE over OAKLAND by 10
Last season, Bill Callahan’s idea of offense was to tell the media during the week that Oakland would run more frequently, then throw it 50 times on Sunday or Monday. Somehow, it worked. But NFL defensive coordinators are like “fool me once, shame on you” and you know the rest. If that was as imaginative as the guy could be after inheriting
control from Jon Gruden, then the Raiders will hit a wall. Once a veteran QB and league-high passer is exposed as just a guy from Delaware, as Rich Gannon was against the Bucs in the Super Bowl, he becomes a slowing-with-age, barely moving target. More often than not, the way to control an NFL game is with the better running attack. It’s a given: the Titans have that with Eddie George. They couldn’t use him as a weapon in their first game against Oakland last season because they were intercepted and specialteamed to a large early deficit. And by the time Tennessee had re-energized its season and earned a re-match vs. the Raiders in the AFC Championship Game, they had guys hanging by a thread both emotionally and physically. Each game was played in Oakland.
When the Oakland defense is not playing with a lead, it can’t pin its ears back and put on the all-out rush that makes its gambling secondary effective. Things can change quickly in this league. The Titans’ defense will do their best imitation of what Tampa Bay did to Oakland in the Raiders’ most recent real game. They can’t do it as well, but they don’t need to win by 27 points. TENNESSEE, 23-13.

NCAA FOOTBALL PLAYS:

SUPER BEST BET
*OKLAHOMA STATE over WYOMING by 35
With no real opponents due until Kansas State on October 11, Oklahoma State can let it all hang out against squads with inferior athletes, such as this visitor. It’s the first game for the road team’s new head coach, and Wyoming couldn’t stay close in it’s last game for the old one, who they liked. Oklahoma State last week gained less than 200 yards total
offense, and super WR Rashaun Woods only had five catches for 47 yards. That was against a Nebraska defense that had game-planned out of its mind with six new coordinators, and that had practiced every day but one since they were allowed to begin, with more practice-field hitting and less back-up participation than in past seasons. Wyoming’s head coach may feel the same pressure as Frank Solich did on a different scale, but he doesn’t have the same caliber of athlete working for him. As for OSU, when high-stat producers like Woods, QB Josh Fields, and RB Tatum Bell are held to modest or poor numbers, they usually bounce back huge. This is still an offense that racked up 38 and 33 points against good, experienced Oklahoma and Southern Miss defenses last year. Oklahoma State, 52-17.

BEST BET
*FLORIDA STATE over MARYLAND by 2
Now that “the world” believes this year’s Florida State team is back on track, we’re stepping in with both fists to play Maryland. Yes, the same Terrapins’ team that lost 20-13 in overtime versus Northern Illinois last Thursday night as 8 -point road favorites and the same Terrapins’ team that lost 37-10 at home against FSU a year ago. The fact of the matter is Maryland has extra prep time here and did show us something when it marched down the field on its first possession and scored a touchdown in DeKalb last week. Expect a sharper mental effort beyond the first drive here as QB Scott McBrien tests a State secondary that really didn’t get challenged by Carolina last week. Florida State manhandled the Tar Heels when it registered 29 total first downs and a whopping 553 yards of offense but, again, nine days to prepare under taskmaster head coach
Ralph Friedgen should have the Terps fightin’ mad here. Maryland was flagged for a rash of silly penalties last week and no way will the Terps be “giving away” yards here and so gut feeling is this could be over-inflated betting line and overconfident FSU team stepping in against a hungry/angry Maryland bunch that makes this underdog special. Take
those points! Florida State, 30-28.

BEST BET
*MIAMI over FLORIDA by 21
Canes have a new fearsome threesome in former Gator Brock Berlin at QB, Frank Gore at RB and reliable Kellen Winslow Jr. at TE. A 48-9 rout at LaTech was a solid cover, but UM is really ready to turn it on against the Gators, who actually have a crocodile on the front of their media guide. The other mistake occurred before last season when they hired Ron Zook. Beating San Jose State 65-3 at The Swamp was one thing (three QBs threw TD passes), but playing the Canes in the Orange Bowl is another story. That tricky Zook declined to name his starter before the game and then started two QBs. Ingle Martin took the snap and Gavins Dickey lined at WR. Such goofiness won’t wash vs. Miami. The Canes easily covered the last two meetings against UF, in the 2001 Sugar Bowl and last year when they won by 25 as 2.5-point road favorites. Miami covered only four games last season, but usually rises to the occasion at home against hated Gators. Berlin was OK in his UM debut, with 203 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception. Gore ran for 118 yards and TE Kellen Winslow Jr. had four catches for 35 yards and 1 TD. Now that they’re warmed up, the Gators defense will be left grasping at air, and Miami’s will be flinging Gator QBs to the turf. Miami 35-14.

RECOMMENDED
*MICHIGAN over HOUSTON by 19
The Wolverines may not want to show all the cards in their hand with rival Notre Dame on deck. Plus, this could be a difficult week of preparation anyway as Michigan must get itself ready for Houston’s new spread offense. First-year coach Art Briles’ schemes were successful against Rice as the Cougars rolled up a 48-14 win as new QB Kevin Kolb accounted for four touchdowns.True, Michigan will have an advantage that Rice didn’t, as now game video exists of the new-look Cougars. The Wolverines will get back suspended DB Marlin Jackson for this game, but it may take him a while to get into the flow. Michigan has faced this type of attack before, and the Wolverines are only 1-3 ATS over the past three seasons against Big 10 opponents Purdue and Northwestern, both of which run spread offenses. All Houston needs is an early score and the Cougars have a shot at hanging it against the number with a Wolverines team that isn’t really built for the quick strike. Michigan, 33-14.

RECOMMENDED
AIR FORCE over NORTHWESTERN by 1
The ground-oriented Flyboys opened with a 49-0 walkover against I-AA Wofford, while Northwestern at least displayed its mettle by outlasting Kansas, 28-20, on the road. The Wildcats blew a 14-0 lead in a driving rainstorm but got 196 yards rushing from senior RB Jason Wright. The key to this game is the fact that the Wildcats do return six starters on defense, meaning there are plenty of people in purple who remember the 52-3 beating inflicted upon them by Air Force in the 2002 season opener, when the Falcons amassed 476 yards rushing. Do you think Northwestern has looked at those films a few times since then? More experience should mean a better defense for the ‘Cats in 2003, and this is the time to show it. Air Force, 25-24.

RECOMMENDED
SYRACUSE over *NORTH CAROLINA by 10
One of the keys to early-season handicapping is to know when to saddle up to a team that’s got a game under its belt versus a team that’s on its maiden voyage. P.S., this is not one of those times! Sure, the North Carolina Tar Heels dipped their feet into the waters of this 2003 season with last week’s 37-0 loss to Florida State while Syracuse was sitting idly by. But no way do we want the Heels here as ‘Cuse in major revenge mode (lost 30-22 as five-point home favorites last year) and UNC’s got no zip. North Carolina’s defense was savaged while allowing 301 first-half yards by Florida State and the offense never got untracked while PK Dan Orner missed field goals of 51 and 37 yards. Syracuse RBs Walter Reyes Damien Rhodes inflict some internal damage to the Heels here when it counts. Syracuse, 30-20.

RECOMMENDED
AUBURN over *GEORGIA TECH by 15
When a team has been tabbed to win the national championship yet gets out of the starting gate with a 23-0 home loss, it can either get all riled up and do something about it or retreat into a season-long shell. The hunch is that Tommy Tuberville’s crew has enough Southern pride to do something about what just happened vs. USC and you’ll see for yourself here. The Tigers rushed for only 43 yards on 36 carries last week against the Men of Troy – a/k/a “The Wild Bunch II” — and Auburn QB Jason Campbell was under siege throughout the game while completing just 12 of 26 passes for 121 yards. Now, it’s the Auburn defense who puts the heat on Tech’s kid QB Reggie Ball, who couldn’t move the offense against much slower defenders in a 24-13 loss at BYU. Auburn, 27-12.

RECOMMENDED
*OREGON over NEVADA by 11
Oregon played for only a half against Mississippi State, a dangerous precedent to set when your defense is sub-par. Off the SEC foe, looking ahead to Pac 10 Arizona, this has the potential to be a look-ahead spot for the Ducks. Nevada was life-and-death to beat I-AA Southern Utah (24-23), but the good news is that stud RB Chance Kretchmer returned from an ACL that was torn last season to gain 170 yards on 26 carrries. With
fewer stifling penalties than the 13 (for 125 yards) that they committed against Southern Utah, without three lost fumbles they had last week, and without a game to look ahead to next weekend, Nevada will have no excuses for not delivering for the double-digit dog players. OREGON, 41-30.

RECOMMENDED PLAY
OKLAHOMA over *ALABAMA by 15
The visiting Sooners played patty-cake versus North Texas last week, holding them to a mere 154 yards of offense – will be at full force against a Crimson Tide attack that really sputtered much worse than last week’s score indicated. In fact, ‘Bama really needed a 51-yard interception return for a touchdown by D-back Charlie Peprah to jump-start the squad last week as Tide QB Brodie Croyle was out of synch for much of the time despite finishing with 203 yards passing and one touchdown. Have to believe staunch Oklahoma defense starring linebacker Teddy Lehman will keep Tide running back Shaud Williams in check one week after scat-backtotaled 177 offensive yards and three TDs. The key will be Oklahoma getting instant penetration against Alabama’s O-line and getting a piece of Williams in the backfield. If ‘Bama is down double digits this week, don’t expect any glorious comeback as Croyle can be rattled and the flip side is we’ve seen the Tide secondary and it can be beaten deep. Oklahoma, 27-12.

[The Sports_Guru]

CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF BY GOLDSHEET

RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
*11 *MINNESOTA over Troy State
*10 *ALABAMA over Oklahoma
*10 UTAH over *Texas A&M
*10 MISSOURI over *Ball State
*10 SAN DIEGO over *Kansas City

TOTALS:
UNDER (46) in New England-Buffalo Game—Pats have shorn up their defense in a big way with nice influx of talent; Belichick knows Bledsoe and kept him under control LY.
UNDER (35) in Houston-Miami Game—With Seau & Knight on hand, and with Houston’s OL still a huge ?, Dolphins should add to their 20 of last 26 “under” count at home.

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): AUBURN (-8) at Georgia Tech—If solid Auburn has any character, Tigers will bounce back vs. manpowershort Tech & its true frosh QB...TENNESSEE (-20) vs. Marshall—Thundering Herd 0-6 as road dog L3Ys; Clausen & Fulmer seeking breakout win behind terrific OL...KENT STATE (+30) at Pittsburgh—Golden Flash jr. QB Cribbs, injured much of LY, is a big difference maker...BAYLOR (+15½) at North Texas—UNT has never beaten Baylor and is now a fat DD favorite!; Bears’ fundamentals improved under Morriss...N.Y. GIANTS (-1) over St. Louis—Giants have the power and the better DBs; Warner 0-6 as a starter LY!

[The Sports_Guru]

POINTWISE COLLEGIATE & PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL PROPHECY

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:

NCAA KEY RELEASES:
1* AUBURN over Georgia Tech
1* OKLAHOMA STATE over Wyoming
2* UTAH over Texas A&M
3* TENNESSEE over Marshall
4* SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA over Byu
4* FLORIDA STATE over Maryland
5* VIRGINIA over South Carolina
5* BOSTON COLLEGE over Penn State


NFL KEY RELEASES:
2* PHILADELPHIA over Tampa Bay RATING: 2
3* DALLAS over Atlanta RATING: 3
4* DENVER over Cincinnati RATING: 4
4* TENNESSEE over Oakland RATING: 4
5* MINNESOTA over Green Bay RATING: 5

[The Sports_Guru]

THE SUNSHINE FORCAST

NFL PRE-SEASON Overall record: 11-6, 64.7%
NFL Overall record: 0-0

NFL Regular Season Sides
September 7 Atlanta Falcons +2 @ Dallas Cowboys
September 4 New York Jets +3½ @ Washington Redskins

NCAA Overall record: 2-0, 100.0%

NCAA Regular Season Sides
September 6 Marshall +19 @ Tennessee

[The Sports_Guru]

NORTHCOAST'S POWERSWEEP

NFL KEY SELECTIONS:
4* MIAMI over Houston
3* CAROLINA over Jacksonville
2* GREEN BAY over Minnesota
2* New England over BUFFALO

NCAA KEY SELECTIONS:
4* FLORIDA ST over Maryland
3* TENNESSEE over Marshall
3* WASHINGTON over Indiana
2* Oklahoma over ALABAMA
2* NEBRASKA over Utah St
2* OKLAHOMA ST over Wyoming

[The Sports_Guru]

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA!!! ...featuring the Technical Report

PLAYS OF THE WEEK:

NAVY
It’s hard to find a more compelling technical angle in college football than Navy’s long-running success as an underdog away from Annapolis. Those
numbers have been consistently positive (4-2 last year, 14-7 since 1999, 32- 17 since ’93, 52-25 since ’88 ), and the Midshipmen look to continue that extended string of success when invading Fort Worth Saturday night for a date against TCU. And Navy, always with some TexasRepresentation on the roster, has covered its last 5 trips to various venues within the Lone Star State. As for the Horned Frogs, consider the problems they encountered when laying hefty prices at Amon Carter Stadium last season, dropping all four pointspread decisions laying double digits at Fort Worth.

TEXAS TECH
Series and team trends present some valid arguments for the Texas Tech case when the Red Raiders play host to New Mexico in Lubbock Saturday night. Recent meetings between these two have been dominated by Tech, which has won and covered handily (all wins by 12 or more) the past three seasons against the Lobos, with the series win and cover streak now at 5 stretching back to 1995. Further, the Red Raiders have been doubly tough at home under HC Mike Leach, whose spread mark as a favorite at Jones Stadium since arriving in 2000 is a solid 11-4. Overall, Leach stands a noteworthy 16-7 against the number as chalk since 2000. Meanwhile, New Mexico has not traveled well lately, evidenced by a subpar 4-109 mark its last 14 tries away from Albuquerque.

FLORIDA STATE
Maryland has enjoyed considerable success, both straight up and against the pointspread, since HC Ralph Friedgen took over in 2001.Unfortunately for the Terps, Florida State has remained one hurdle too many, as the Seminoles have continued their recent series domination and look to extend that further Saturday night at Tallahassee when hosting the visitors from College Park. Florida State’s pointspread dominance over Maryland includes wins and covers the last four meetings (all wins by 21 or more) and 7 covers in the last 8 against the Terps, whose average margin of defeat their last four visits to Doak Campbell Stadium is a whopping 36 ppg!

SAN JOSE STATE
No, San Jose State has not had much success the past two years againstnearby peninsula rival Stanford. But extended series trends paint a much more promising picture for the Spartans, who look to bounce back against the Cardinal in Palo Alto Saturday night. Remember, San Jose had covered six straight against Stanford from 1995-2000, and stood 7-0-1 vs. the line between ’93-00 against the Tree. And speaking of extended pointspread trends, Stanford’s marks as a home favorite (11-22-1 since ’93) and double-digit chalk (2-12-1 the same span, including 1-9-1 on The Farm) leave much to be desired.

ARIZONA-DETROIT "OVER"
Respective “totals” trends indicate that Arizona and Detroit can be
expected to go “over” the total when tussling in opening weekend action at Ford Field Sunday afternoon. The Lions (and their foes) were scoring points with frequency last season, resulting in 11 of 16 Detroit games going “over” the total. And the Cardinals have been exhibiting “over” trends for a while on the road, going “over” the total in 7 of their last 9 chances away from Sun Devil Stadium.

[Iluvsports]

Okay number one question I have is who are you ?
Second, I dont think you will get any offers but curious as to what your asking for monetarily?
Phil Steele of North Coast sports ( and maybe the gold sheet ) will try to find you and cut you off ... I like the info you post and have access to Power sweep so I get those selections.

Wish you best of luck in your endeavor.

[The Sports_Guru]

Just trying to help re-coup the costs of the newsletters. I am not a service and will not make a profit on this deal.

[Iluvsports]

You know, I agree with you on the newsletters that its a good source of information and gives one ready analysis of games, especially college games and maybe some NFL tidbits.

I know Phil Steele ( Northcoast / Power sweep ) has tons of info and tons of angles, winning points to me is blah blah blah just yap, the red sheet ( Pointwise ) I have used long time ago in basketball and found it fun and profitable. I know Alatex by name and his forte and this is going like 5 yrs back ( Brent Crow right ) was him chosing on or again Alabama, never did follow his newsletter other than the complimentary issues.

Oh I can talk about the Gold Sheet and then Nellys sports line and his sheet which was pretty good....

My point is the conficting information and the chasing you / all of us have done and playing the wrong game and getting into a hole and then getting mad.

My long winded question is how do you use this info (powersweep, winning points, alatex, goldsheet etc ) and come up with your bets...do you elimante games and play only a handful and by that I mean 4 games ( sure 4 college and 4 nfl ).

I m not trying to lecture just that I have been betting since I turned 21 ( and this was before the internet and lousy bookies back in the day )and now 12 yrs later and as a more mature person I have realised that if one does his own research, uses his /hers own tools ...and stays DISCIPLINED ...one will find that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

I just dont see how the people with the newsletter s know more than any fan that follows his or her team and studies.

[The Sports_Guru]

That is a good quetion, so let me start out by saying that I do not just use the newsletters to determine my plays. At the begging of the week, I flagg games that look inticing to me. I also have a formula for determining what i believe a line should be for the games coming during the following week.

When the lines come out, I then circle however many games look enticing to me for that week, usually 15-17 plays, sometimes alot less, and those will be the ONLY games i will look at for the rest of the week.

After that the newsletters come out, I find it very beneficial to see arguements for and against my plays. Example, I believe the Nevada line should be around -14 so I circled that game last Sunday when the lines came out. I have noticed several of the newsletters agree with me and follow my line of reasoning. I also like it when someone disagrees with me so i can see their side.

Then I track the games all week, for injuries, weather, trends, ect...ect. Then I and I alone decide whether I want to risk my money on the game knowing all the arguments for and against my play. Has proven to be very sucessful. Hope that answers your question.