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View from the Window Perch

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  • View from the Window Perch

    When the season began, Buffalo destroyed the Patriots. The Giants crushed the Warner-led Rams. Pittsburgh trounced Baltimore. Atlanta smothered the Cowboys. TB had an easy shutout against the Eagles for the opening of their defending Superbown run – a team thought by many as not only the best this season but perhaps one of the best of all time.

    That was a long time ago.

    The past few weeks, I’ve spotlighted teams that have laid down last year or in recent years. As has been par for the course, last year’s losers weren’t such easy marks this year. Miami pulled off a win, New Orleans needed to blow an extra point in order to lose, and the Steelers took care of business against the Chargers. Even the Packers, who ran out of gas last year right about now, had the team firing on all cylinders in Superbowl-like fashion to honor of Farve’s father.

    This week, we are looking for teams with nothing to play for on the road, teams having to win to make the playoffs, and teams faced with the carrots of bye weeks and home field advantage. First rule: the incentive to make the playoffs is far greater and more powerful than that of home field advantage or even the all-important bye week. That message was as clear as ever last year, as several teams got their wins to make the playoffs. Ironically, the teams they beat – some on the road – were playing for byes and home field advantages and these teams had more talent to win. They didn’t. So clearly, one of the incentives proved more powerful than the other. Personally, I had money against the obvious. “Just cause you wanna win doesn’t mean your gonna win”. Heck, I figured some kind of surprise had to happen. But as happens most seasons, week 17 doesn’t have a lot of surprises left in the tank and often is rather predictable if you factor in who is playing for what. Just look at week 16, which was mostly devoid of upsets.

    This is also a great week to think moneyline, because its all about the wins and losses, not the points. Still, if I want to wrap things up, you finish ahead by a TD so one final fluke play doesn’t beat you. So in playing the spread, special attention to 7 is warranted.

    Lets get specific.

    The conspiracy theorist in me feels that the Pack won a playoff spot Monday night. In fact, they may even be spurred into a Superbowl run on the heals of Farve’s tragedy. They certainly played like they were capable Monday night. So how do the Pack make the playoffs? The easy way is to make sure Seattle losses, so that will probably happen. Ironically, bettors have spurned the teased line put out by the oddsmakers and run the 49ers from a PK to a 3 point favorite. Seattle has a win-or-not-in scenario so that makes this one kind of tough. How many teams that go 8-0 at home don’t make the playoffs? Not many.

    So how do the Pack make the playoffs if the Seahawks get a win they should be able to get? The Pack needs to win over a Denver team with nothing to play for and a serious need to rest. Consider that done. But they’ll also need the Cowboys to win, and the most likely way to motivate that to happen is for a Redskin upset. Well, its not like the Eagles have played well at home most of the year, so that would fit in with the 2003 trend. Of course, if the Eagles don’t get upset – that would be the sane thing to expect – then Phily’s win simply means that Minnesota will have to ante up in Arizona, Cowboys take the bye in New Orleans, and Baltimore defeats Pittsburgh thereby improving Strength of Victory and allowing the Packers to make the playoffs. The scenario of an AFC battle determining the NFC’s playoff situation is just to delicious, so put that in the hat as a real possibility too.

    Remember: Packers are now a team of destiny, one of those three scenarios is as good as done. Don’t fret: even if we get bored by a Seattle defeat to spoil the fun, you can still cash in on the resulting Cardinals cover.

    One game that should be fun is that Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore game. These teams HATE each other and with a Cincinnati win, the Steelers get to play spoiler. The Steelers have always held the Ravens number and they will be like a piece of red meat to them. Moreover, the Jamal Lewis run-a-thon adds drama vs. a defense that just a year ago was so good against the run that teams would just pass every play. Losing on the ground would probably be even more painful to the Steelers than losing on the scoreboard. Of course, failing to rise to this occasion would just be one more nail in the coffin for the Steelers horrendous season.

    So what is going to happen? We’ll know a lot more when Saturday’s games are over but expect things to be disappointed with a Pats win, an Eagles win, and a Seahawks loss. That would ensure the NFL maintains its moniker as the No Fun League and put many teams on bye weeks for Sunday.

    DON’T LET THE BLACK CAT CROSS Y-O-U-R PATH!

  • #2
    Incidentally, Rams laying 10.5 points is a LOT considering that they may not even having anything to play for! I guess someone is confident that Washington won't win.

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    • #3
      Post-Op

      Finally, a reasonably clean day. Its been a long long time. Historically, I win in September, the final week, and especially in the playoffs. (In between, its a disaster and seems to get worse every year) So far, so good....

      I must admit, in all the Green Bay scenarios I chewed over, I never considered what almost seems like the obvious: by having the Vikings blow it in Arizona -- in miracle fashion no less -- BOTH Seattle and Green Bay made the playoffs. You have to admire that Arizona was tough-as-nails at home to the bitter bitter end. (very unusual for the Cards)

      See you in a few days, and I'll be bringing some winning thoughts, and maybe some winners too.



      THE BLACK CAT

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