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  • Saturday NBA preview and pick

    7.35pm ET
    Golden State Warriors @ Detroit Pistons

    Hot versus cold tonight as the Detroit Pistons go for their fifth straight win while the Golden State Warriors try and avoid their fifth consecutive loss.

    We're forecasting this one to finish in the 165-175 range and will recommend the Under.

    The Pistons are 20-13 SU overall this season and third in the Central division. They are 2-8 O/U recently and in those ten games are combining for an average of just 166 points per game. Even that number is inflated by a 207 point aberration against the Hornets. Take that game out and Detroit's other nine games average just 162 ppg and all would have gone Under tonight's total of 176.5.

    Detroit have not allowed 100 points in any game this season and the 33 game-streak ties the NBA single-season record set by the Knicks in 2000-01. They are a mortal lock to extend that streak tonight and claim the record on their own.

    Their latest victim was Phoenix and guard Penny Hardaway explained it well following the game. "The Pistons methodically put us to sleep with the slow-down game they like to play." he said. "We fell into their trap. That's why they hold everybody under 100 points. You have to do all the right things if you want to beat them." Expect more of the same tonight especially from two-time reigning Defensive Player of the Year Ben Wallace. "We just came out and played tough" he said. "We play everybody tough."

    The Warriors are 14-17 SU which places them fifth in the Pacific. Following a stretch of three straight Overs they have now played in five consecutive Unders. In fact in their last five games they are combining for an average of just 179 points per game and have gone Under by 5, 23, 9, 21 and 20 points respectively. All five Warriors games against Central division opponents this season have gone Under as they fall into the trap of playing the half-court Eastern conference style of game. On the road this season Golden State are 5-10 Over/Under.

    There have been 63 Pistons' games the last three seasons where the total has been posted between 170 and 179.5 points. The Under is hitting at a very profitable 57% clip in these games and that rate has increased to 69% (9 of 13) this season.

    Expect another low-scoring defensive battle tonight.

    Recommended Play: Under 176.5
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