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Thursday NBA...Spurs at Mavs

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  • Thursday NBA...Spurs at Mavs

    8pm ET
    San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks

    The reigning World Champion San Antonio Spurs take their show on the road again tonight in a marquee match-up against the Dallas Mavericks.

    The Under has cashed six straight times in this series and we expect that trend to continue tonight. Those six meetings averaged 182.3 ppg which is a staggering 17 points under the average posted total of 199.3 ppg.

    The Spurs are making a good fist of defending their title, going 38-19 SU overall to be second in the Midwest. Meantime the Mavericks are 36-20 SU and will be desperate to win tonight and close the gap on the second-placed Spurs.

    San Antonio own the league's best defense at 83.7 ppg which is almost ten points under the NBA average of 93 ppg. And they tend to lift their renowned intensity against division rivals....the Under has cashed in 12 of their 15 clashes this season against the Midwest and 42 of 68 (.618) the last three seasons. The Spurs allowed just 77 points against Houston in their last game and the O/U is 10-22 this season following games in which they allowed less than 85 points.

    The Under has cashed in 8 of the Mavs last 11 games as the oddsmakers have well and truly factored in the public's love for betting them to go Over in almost every game. The most appropriate parallel to this game would be two games back when the Mavs hosted the number 2 defense of the Houston Rockets. That game saw 185 points scored which went Under the total of 190.5 and a similar result tonight seems likely.

    The Spurs will be seeking revenge tonight for two losses to the Mavs earlier this season and that is another strong factor in our Under play...the Under is hitting at a 63.6% clip this season and 61% the last three seasons when San Antonio are playing with revenge.

    We don't expect either of these teams to score 100 points tonight and will recommend the Under with confidence.

    Recommended Play: Under 190
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