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In Week One of the 2005 NCAA Football season, I got off to a bit of a rough start going 1-2-1 in The Docket and 2-5-1 overall for a negative 3.9 units. Not exactly what I had in mind for opening weekend but that means that it is time to make up some ground and I have found four games I like to get that started.
NOTRE DAME vs. MICHIGAN – September 10th, 12:00 PM EDT
With the fall of so many ranked teams last week I guess it is not too big of a surprise that Michigan remained at #3 in both the Coach’s and the AP Poll this week, although their lack of dominance over Northern Illinois should have raised a few eyebrows. The Big House is usually a very intimidating place for visitors but the Huskies showed a lot of grit in grinding out 411 yards against the Wolverines. After the game HC Lloyd Carr downplayed those numbers by saying Michigan had intentionally played a “vanilla defense”. I’m not so sure I’m buying into that, especially with the news coming out of Michigan this week that Carr is revamping his starting lineup.
Notre Dame made a widely publicized coaching change at the end of last season, getting rid of Tyrone Willingham and bringing in alum Charlie Weis from the New England Patriots coaching staff. Ara Parseghian was the last Notre Dame coach to enjoy a debut like Weis' as he had his Golden Domers well prepared last week in their opener at Pitt. The Irish took the Panthers apart in a 42-21 win and except for one interception, Junior QB Brady Quinn couldn't have run the Irish offense much better that he did, passing for 18 of 27 for 233 yards and two touchdowns. Quinn ran the Patriot style offense to near perfection, leading touchdown drives on five of Notre Dame's first six possessions. Another positive for the Irish defense is that they were able to hold Pitt QB Tyler Palko to 17 of 30 passing for 181 yards, partly because the Irish had the ball so much of the time.
While the Irish have lost the last three games they have played in Ann Arbor, they have covered in two of those match-ups and in five of the last six in this series. Incredibly, the underdog in games between these two teams is 18-3 ATS since they resumed their yearly meetings in 1978. For all of the glory that is heaped on Michigan year after year, the Wolverines are only one game over .500 ATS at home in the eleven years since HC Lloyd Carr took over. I’m not a big proponent of trends but those numbers are hard to ignore and if Weiss can break out a little of the magic he used so effectively with the Patriots, coupled with the new confidence he has instilled in his players, we could be watching an upset in this early game.
The Verdict: NOTRE DAME (+7)
NORTHWESTERN vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS – September 10th, 4:00 PM EDT
Northwestern put on quite a show for the home fans last week in their 35-17 victory over Ohio University. The Wildcats have been at the bottom of the pecking order in the Big 10 for a while now and played well as QB Brett Basanez was a solid 27 of 37 for 353 yards passing with RB Tyrell Sutton going for over 100 yards on the ground. The Big 10 beat up on the MAC last week, going 7-0 against the smaller conference and NU gets a chance to do it again this week.
The only problem with that is this week the Wildcats draw a very scrappy squad in Northern Illinois who has a history of making their opponents work for wins. The Huskies come into this game after gaining the cover in a 33-17 loss at The Big House last week. If not for five turnovers by NIU, the game might well have even been a bit closer as QB Phil Horvath completed 17 of 25 passes for 191 yards and the Michigan defense gave up a total of 411 yards to this upstart team. The turnovers were very uncharacteristic of the Huskies as they led the nation last year in fumbling the ball only once. The running back tandem of Garrett Wolfe and AJ Harris provide a very balanced attack behind a strong offensive line and that could well be the difference in the game against Northwestern.
Northwestern QB Brett Basanez is back for his third year and he appears to be getting worse each season. He finished out 2004 with only 12 touchdown passes but got off to a decent start last week, although Ohio U’s defense appeared to be napping through most of the game. The Wildcat’s defense is the weak spot on this team and was barely tested by the pathetic offensive play of Ohio last week.
The Huskies are a bit under most gamblers’ radar and have the opportunity to catch what will likely be an overconfident Northwestern team in a bit of a letdown. The chance to beat a Big 10 team on the road will be a major incentive and it appears that No. Illinois is up to the challenge. Michigan provided a great tune-up for the Huskies to play the spoiler in what amounts to their own back yard and provided they can avoid the turnovers, I expect them to do just that. A small money line play is in order here to go along with a big wager on NIU.
The Verdict: NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+2.5)
SOUTH CAROLINA vs. GEORGIA – September 10t, 5:30 PM EDT
Georgia got their season started last week by handing Boise State a loss, embarrassing them in the process. The loss for Boise was only their fourth in their last 43 games and the final score of 38-14 does not come close to indicating how the Bulldog defense completely dominated the Broncos’ attempts at offense. Boise QB Zabransky threw four interceptions and two fumbles before being benched just before halftime.
Steve Spurrier celebrated his return to college ball (after a humbling NFL coaching effort) with a win over Central Florida last week but he needed a fourth down stop by his defense with under three minutes to go to save a 24-15 victory. Now the old ball coach is rewarded with a trip to Athens to face the Bulldogs on whom he routinely ran up the score during his years at Florida. Ten years ago, as Spurrier was headed to Sanford Stadium for the first time, someone told him that no visiting team had ever scored 50 points on Georgia at home. The Evil Genius decided right then that he would to be the first and Georgia has never forgotten. Welcome back to the SEC Coach, I’m sure you were missed.
Last week, Georgia’s new quarterback DJ Shockley passed for 289 yards and tied the school record with five passing touchdowns. He also ran for 85 yards and a touchdown on five carries and is probably feeling that his time as backup behind former Bulldog QB David Greene might pay very off nicely. He looked at ease against Boise’s defense and his performance immediately drew rumblings of “Heisman Candidate” from observers around the country.
Considering that Central Florida dominated the line of scrimmage in the second half last week against the Gamecocks, South Carolina looks to be in trouble this week in Athens. Although QB Blake Mitchell passed for 330 yards last week, this inexperienced quarterback is in no way ready to be calling audibles when he lines up against Georgia in front of 92,000 fans.
Let’s get a couple of things straight. Central Florida plays in Conference USA where they have now lost 16 straight games, yet last week at home, Spurriers Gamecocks held on by the skin of their teeth with only a 20 yard edge in total offense. On the other side of the coin, Georgia plays in the SEC Conference and regularly takes on opponents like Tennessee, Florida, LSU, Auburn and Alabama. These guys ain’t scared of anybody and would like nothing better than to get a little payback here by punching Spurrier square in the mouth. After the way they handled Boise, I think they are probably feeling pretty good about their chances. It feels like the line in this game should be as much as a touchdown higher but has probably been held down to a reasonable number out of some kind of misplaced respect for Spurrier. I’ll jump on Georgia again this week.
The Verdict: GEORGIA (-17)
WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. TOLEDO – September 10th, 7:00 pm EDT
Last year Toledo was an absolute gambler’s darling and I played on the Rockets a total of six times, winning five of those games. Once again, they play a very weak MAC schedule with no real competition in conference until the last two weeks of the season when they host Northern Illinois followed by their closer at Bowling Green. The Rockets begin their quest to repeat as MAC Champs this week when they take on Western Michigan at home and that spells trouble for the Broncos as Toledo has covered 13 of their last 15 home games including 10 of their last 12 as double digit favorites.
Western Michigan’s cover last week against Virginia can be misleading as the Broncos were able to keep the score fairly close at 31-19 although they were 36 point underdogs going into that game. That result was much more of a case of mistake ridden play on the part of the Cavs than anything spectacular on the part of the Broncos, who failed to score a single offensive touchdown. New WMU HC Bill Cubit got his season underway last week without their starting quarterback, Ryan Cubit (coach’s son) who could be back in the lineup after being withheld last week with shin splints. One standout player on this team is Greg Jennings who tied a school record last week with 16 receptions. Unfortunately, there is a huge disparity in talent between Jennings and the rest of this team which is on an 11 game losing streak.
The big talent on the Toledo team is QB Bruce Gradkowski who has turned out to be one of the most accurate passers in the country, averaging 70% completions over the last two years for over 6,700 yards, 56 touchdowns and only 15 interceptions. Last week against Western Illinois, Gradkowski played only the first half and while he completed just 9 of 17 passes, two of those were for touchdowns and he ran for another. The Rockets led by a score of 41-0 at halftime and went on to record a 62-14 rout as they were the only team in the MAC to win their opener. Last season the Rockets averaged 459 yards and 33 points a game and don’t expect a letdown from this squad against inferior conference competition in 2005, particularly at home.
Gradkowski should absolutely shred the Bronco’s weak and inexperienced secondary and the closer than expected score in Western Michigan’s game last week is the only reason the spread for this one isn’t in the thirties. Against this bad football team, the Rockets could easily cover this number by halftime as Toledo accumulated nearly 650 yards of offense against them last year. This one should get real ugly real quick.
The Verdict: TOLEDO (-23)
NOTRE DAME vs. MICHIGAN – September 10th, 12:00 PM EDT
With the fall of so many ranked teams last week I guess it is not too big of a surprise that Michigan remained at #3 in both the Coach’s and the AP Poll this week, although their lack of dominance over Northern Illinois should have raised a few eyebrows. The Big House is usually a very intimidating place for visitors but the Huskies showed a lot of grit in grinding out 411 yards against the Wolverines. After the game HC Lloyd Carr downplayed those numbers by saying Michigan had intentionally played a “vanilla defense”. I’m not so sure I’m buying into that, especially with the news coming out of Michigan this week that Carr is revamping his starting lineup.
Notre Dame made a widely publicized coaching change at the end of last season, getting rid of Tyrone Willingham and bringing in alum Charlie Weis from the New England Patriots coaching staff. Ara Parseghian was the last Notre Dame coach to enjoy a debut like Weis' as he had his Golden Domers well prepared last week in their opener at Pitt. The Irish took the Panthers apart in a 42-21 win and except for one interception, Junior QB Brady Quinn couldn't have run the Irish offense much better that he did, passing for 18 of 27 for 233 yards and two touchdowns. Quinn ran the Patriot style offense to near perfection, leading touchdown drives on five of Notre Dame's first six possessions. Another positive for the Irish defense is that they were able to hold Pitt QB Tyler Palko to 17 of 30 passing for 181 yards, partly because the Irish had the ball so much of the time.
While the Irish have lost the last three games they have played in Ann Arbor, they have covered in two of those match-ups and in five of the last six in this series. Incredibly, the underdog in games between these two teams is 18-3 ATS since they resumed their yearly meetings in 1978. For all of the glory that is heaped on Michigan year after year, the Wolverines are only one game over .500 ATS at home in the eleven years since HC Lloyd Carr took over. I’m not a big proponent of trends but those numbers are hard to ignore and if Weiss can break out a little of the magic he used so effectively with the Patriots, coupled with the new confidence he has instilled in his players, we could be watching an upset in this early game.
The Verdict: NOTRE DAME (+7)
NORTHWESTERN vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS – September 10th, 4:00 PM EDT
Northwestern put on quite a show for the home fans last week in their 35-17 victory over Ohio University. The Wildcats have been at the bottom of the pecking order in the Big 10 for a while now and played well as QB Brett Basanez was a solid 27 of 37 for 353 yards passing with RB Tyrell Sutton going for over 100 yards on the ground. The Big 10 beat up on the MAC last week, going 7-0 against the smaller conference and NU gets a chance to do it again this week.
The only problem with that is this week the Wildcats draw a very scrappy squad in Northern Illinois who has a history of making their opponents work for wins. The Huskies come into this game after gaining the cover in a 33-17 loss at The Big House last week. If not for five turnovers by NIU, the game might well have even been a bit closer as QB Phil Horvath completed 17 of 25 passes for 191 yards and the Michigan defense gave up a total of 411 yards to this upstart team. The turnovers were very uncharacteristic of the Huskies as they led the nation last year in fumbling the ball only once. The running back tandem of Garrett Wolfe and AJ Harris provide a very balanced attack behind a strong offensive line and that could well be the difference in the game against Northwestern.
Northwestern QB Brett Basanez is back for his third year and he appears to be getting worse each season. He finished out 2004 with only 12 touchdown passes but got off to a decent start last week, although Ohio U’s defense appeared to be napping through most of the game. The Wildcat’s defense is the weak spot on this team and was barely tested by the pathetic offensive play of Ohio last week.
The Huskies are a bit under most gamblers’ radar and have the opportunity to catch what will likely be an overconfident Northwestern team in a bit of a letdown. The chance to beat a Big 10 team on the road will be a major incentive and it appears that No. Illinois is up to the challenge. Michigan provided a great tune-up for the Huskies to play the spoiler in what amounts to their own back yard and provided they can avoid the turnovers, I expect them to do just that. A small money line play is in order here to go along with a big wager on NIU.
The Verdict: NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+2.5)
SOUTH CAROLINA vs. GEORGIA – September 10t, 5:30 PM EDT
Georgia got their season started last week by handing Boise State a loss, embarrassing them in the process. The loss for Boise was only their fourth in their last 43 games and the final score of 38-14 does not come close to indicating how the Bulldog defense completely dominated the Broncos’ attempts at offense. Boise QB Zabransky threw four interceptions and two fumbles before being benched just before halftime.
Steve Spurrier celebrated his return to college ball (after a humbling NFL coaching effort) with a win over Central Florida last week but he needed a fourth down stop by his defense with under three minutes to go to save a 24-15 victory. Now the old ball coach is rewarded with a trip to Athens to face the Bulldogs on whom he routinely ran up the score during his years at Florida. Ten years ago, as Spurrier was headed to Sanford Stadium for the first time, someone told him that no visiting team had ever scored 50 points on Georgia at home. The Evil Genius decided right then that he would to be the first and Georgia has never forgotten. Welcome back to the SEC Coach, I’m sure you were missed.
Last week, Georgia’s new quarterback DJ Shockley passed for 289 yards and tied the school record with five passing touchdowns. He also ran for 85 yards and a touchdown on five carries and is probably feeling that his time as backup behind former Bulldog QB David Greene might pay very off nicely. He looked at ease against Boise’s defense and his performance immediately drew rumblings of “Heisman Candidate” from observers around the country.
Considering that Central Florida dominated the line of scrimmage in the second half last week against the Gamecocks, South Carolina looks to be in trouble this week in Athens. Although QB Blake Mitchell passed for 330 yards last week, this inexperienced quarterback is in no way ready to be calling audibles when he lines up against Georgia in front of 92,000 fans.
Let’s get a couple of things straight. Central Florida plays in Conference USA where they have now lost 16 straight games, yet last week at home, Spurriers Gamecocks held on by the skin of their teeth with only a 20 yard edge in total offense. On the other side of the coin, Georgia plays in the SEC Conference and regularly takes on opponents like Tennessee, Florida, LSU, Auburn and Alabama. These guys ain’t scared of anybody and would like nothing better than to get a little payback here by punching Spurrier square in the mouth. After the way they handled Boise, I think they are probably feeling pretty good about their chances. It feels like the line in this game should be as much as a touchdown higher but has probably been held down to a reasonable number out of some kind of misplaced respect for Spurrier. I’ll jump on Georgia again this week.
The Verdict: GEORGIA (-17)
WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. TOLEDO – September 10th, 7:00 pm EDT
Last year Toledo was an absolute gambler’s darling and I played on the Rockets a total of six times, winning five of those games. Once again, they play a very weak MAC schedule with no real competition in conference until the last two weeks of the season when they host Northern Illinois followed by their closer at Bowling Green. The Rockets begin their quest to repeat as MAC Champs this week when they take on Western Michigan at home and that spells trouble for the Broncos as Toledo has covered 13 of their last 15 home games including 10 of their last 12 as double digit favorites.
Western Michigan’s cover last week against Virginia can be misleading as the Broncos were able to keep the score fairly close at 31-19 although they were 36 point underdogs going into that game. That result was much more of a case of mistake ridden play on the part of the Cavs than anything spectacular on the part of the Broncos, who failed to score a single offensive touchdown. New WMU HC Bill Cubit got his season underway last week without their starting quarterback, Ryan Cubit (coach’s son) who could be back in the lineup after being withheld last week with shin splints. One standout player on this team is Greg Jennings who tied a school record last week with 16 receptions. Unfortunately, there is a huge disparity in talent between Jennings and the rest of this team which is on an 11 game losing streak.
The big talent on the Toledo team is QB Bruce Gradkowski who has turned out to be one of the most accurate passers in the country, averaging 70% completions over the last two years for over 6,700 yards, 56 touchdowns and only 15 interceptions. Last week against Western Illinois, Gradkowski played only the first half and while he completed just 9 of 17 passes, two of those were for touchdowns and he ran for another. The Rockets led by a score of 41-0 at halftime and went on to record a 62-14 rout as they were the only team in the MAC to win their opener. Last season the Rockets averaged 459 yards and 33 points a game and don’t expect a letdown from this squad against inferior conference competition in 2005, particularly at home.
Gradkowski should absolutely shred the Bronco’s weak and inexperienced secondary and the closer than expected score in Western Michigan’s game last week is the only reason the spread for this one isn’t in the thirties. Against this bad football team, the Rockets could easily cover this number by halftime as Toledo accumulated nearly 650 yards of offense against them last year. This one should get real ugly real quick.
The Verdict: TOLEDO (-23)
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