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These are all opinions. I'm not playing any of these unless there's some drastic line movement that leaves me no choice.
The only game I may play Saturday is Tenn over Cal particularly at +3.
Of the games listed below, the strongest leans are Nebraska, Bama and Rutgers.
I'll have some more opinions on the rest of the card later Saturday.
Michigan -26.5 over Vandy - Tough to lay a big number like this. Vandy lost QB Cutler to the NFL draft and a key linebacker. But they hung with some big names last year losing to Florida and South Carolina by a TD and beating Tennessee. Gun to my head I'd lay the big number. - Vandy on a 10-3 road dog run while Mich 3-8 as home favs.
Ohio State -17 over No Illinois - Gotta go with the value in this one as the game opened Ohio State -20.5 and is now -17. There were some -16.5's as well today. But be careful. Ohio State has TEXAS up next week in a HUGE game and could get caught looking ahead!
Wisconsin -10.5 @ Bowling Green - This game cirlced due to questionable status of Wisky QB Stocco. Last years game saw Wisky score a TD on six consecutive possessions.
West Virginia -22 over Marshall - Gun to my head and I'd lay the number but not really interested in WVA until I see them a few times. Yeah they were an impressive 11-1 last year and big things are expected this year, but let's not forget they play in the BIG LEAST and beat up on the likes of Syracuse and Pitt last year.
Stanford +12.5 over Oregon - Ducks have had Stanfords number winning and covering 5 out of the last 6 in series. Stanford returns their entire offense from a year ago. A team which hung with ND and took UCLA to OT. Once again gotta look for value in the numbers. This one opened -8 and is now -12.5. Laying -12.5 here is like paying full price for a TV that all your friends got on sale last week. Gotta take the points.
Rutgers +4.5 over North Carolina - You'll notice I keep talking about value and getting the best number. This is a prime example. It was once possible to take Rutgers +7 in this game. You can't expect to win long term if you take +4.5 on games where you once could have gotten a TD. The best way to approach a game like this is to either look closely at taking NC minus the spot, or pass the game. True, Rutgers may still be the right side at +4.5 with a team that scored 30+ points in 8 of their games last year. NC is 3-8 ats in home openers. At +7 I love Rutgers. At +4.5 I'd still take them as a gun to my head play. But the discipline to pass bad numbers will go a long way towards making you a long term winner.
Nebraska -23 over La Tech - La Tech returns just 2 defensive starters and is up against Callahans Nebraska offense that is finally starting to Gel. Romp!
San Jose +20 over Wash - Can't see layong 20 points with a team that was 2-9 last year. With a gun to my head in this one, I would probably elect to pull the trigger
Alabama -15 over Hawaii - There's a world of difference in class between these two. Hawaii was pasted last year anytime they played this level of opponent. USC, Mich St and Wisky all hammered Hawaii while Hawaii struggled to beat teams like San Jose St. Football is a religion in the South. In Hawaii, it's something to do at the beach. This game opened -17.
The only game I may play Saturday is Tenn over Cal particularly at +3.
Of the games listed below, the strongest leans are Nebraska, Bama and Rutgers.
I'll have some more opinions on the rest of the card later Saturday.
Michigan -26.5 over Vandy - Tough to lay a big number like this. Vandy lost QB Cutler to the NFL draft and a key linebacker. But they hung with some big names last year losing to Florida and South Carolina by a TD and beating Tennessee. Gun to my head I'd lay the big number. - Vandy on a 10-3 road dog run while Mich 3-8 as home favs.
Ohio State -17 over No Illinois - Gotta go with the value in this one as the game opened Ohio State -20.5 and is now -17. There were some -16.5's as well today. But be careful. Ohio State has TEXAS up next week in a HUGE game and could get caught looking ahead!
Wisconsin -10.5 @ Bowling Green - This game cirlced due to questionable status of Wisky QB Stocco. Last years game saw Wisky score a TD on six consecutive possessions.
West Virginia -22 over Marshall - Gun to my head and I'd lay the number but not really interested in WVA until I see them a few times. Yeah they were an impressive 11-1 last year and big things are expected this year, but let's not forget they play in the BIG LEAST and beat up on the likes of Syracuse and Pitt last year.
Stanford +12.5 over Oregon - Ducks have had Stanfords number winning and covering 5 out of the last 6 in series. Stanford returns their entire offense from a year ago. A team which hung with ND and took UCLA to OT. Once again gotta look for value in the numbers. This one opened -8 and is now -12.5. Laying -12.5 here is like paying full price for a TV that all your friends got on sale last week. Gotta take the points.
Rutgers +4.5 over North Carolina - You'll notice I keep talking about value and getting the best number. This is a prime example. It was once possible to take Rutgers +7 in this game. You can't expect to win long term if you take +4.5 on games where you once could have gotten a TD. The best way to approach a game like this is to either look closely at taking NC minus the spot, or pass the game. True, Rutgers may still be the right side at +4.5 with a team that scored 30+ points in 8 of their games last year. NC is 3-8 ats in home openers. At +7 I love Rutgers. At +4.5 I'd still take them as a gun to my head play. But the discipline to pass bad numbers will go a long way towards making you a long term winner.
Nebraska -23 over La Tech - La Tech returns just 2 defensive starters and is up against Callahans Nebraska offense that is finally starting to Gel. Romp!
San Jose +20 over Wash - Can't see layong 20 points with a team that was 2-9 last year. With a gun to my head in this one, I would probably elect to pull the trigger
Alabama -15 over Hawaii - There's a world of difference in class between these two. Hawaii was pasted last year anytime they played this level of opponent. USC, Mich St and Wisky all hammered Hawaii while Hawaii struggled to beat teams like San Jose St. Football is a religion in the South. In Hawaii, it's something to do at the beach. This game opened -17.
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