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3* Iowa St +14 over Iowa - This is an Iowa state team which we feel can make some noise this year. They return their entire offense from last years squad, which went 7-5 and had no trouble putting points on the board. They beat Iowa last year 23-3. They went to OT with Nebraska, destroyed Texas A&M and went to overtime with Kansas. They didn't set the world on fire but they were a very competitive team. Not slouches for sure. Get this........they have won 6 out of the last 8 against Iowa straight up! Each team here started the year 2-0 and really, neither has been anything to write home about. Yes, we are aware that QB Tate will be back in action this week. But a football team is more than just a QB. Where was the rest of the team last week in upstate New York. Syracuse isn't very good at all. It took overtime for Iowa to get the win. ALL the trends favor Iowa in this one as they are an astounding 18-2 against the spread at home and 16-2 ATS as double digit favorites. Not to mention 13-5 ATS in revenge games. But the first thing you have to ask yourself when you look at a game where you are backing the underdog is, can this team win this game straight up? In Iowa State, we think they can. Getting +13.5 points in a game that's not out of reach for a straight up win is something we can't pass up. Go State!
3* Tennessee +4 over Florida - We're going to excuse the Vols for looking terrible last week and almost losing to Air Force at home. Chalk it up to looking ahead to Florida and coming down from the high of their opening week upset win over Cal, our first 5* winner here on the Key release page. We think the Vol team that beat Cal will be the team we see on Saturday. This series has seen it's share of nail biters and we look for another one here. This is another game where the trends favor the other team. The Vols have been terrible at home where they are 1-10 against the spread their last 11. Also note the Vols lost cornerback Inky Johnson last week which should have Florida QB Leak licking his chops at his replacement. But these are the situations in college football that we just can't pass up and that are good to us to the tune of 55 to 60 times out of 100. We have a good football program in Tennessee, at home, as an underdog, seeking revenge and playing a team that is ranked higher than them. Vols win this straight up. Right now there are all +3.5's but wait for +4. Or use Skybook for the free half!
3* LSU +3.5 over Auburn - Another huge game involving teams that are among the best in the nation and loaded with talent year after year. LSU in off an 11-2 year while Auburn turned in a 9-3 slate a year ago. Trends in this one favor Auburn as the home team in this series has won the last 6 straight up and has covered 4 of those. But also remember that once a trend becomes lopsided to the point that it stands out, all the value in that trend is in taking the OTHER side as significant trends are always considered when posting a line. Last years game went to OT and the year prior saw a one point game. We think LSU is the better team and can't pass up the added value.
2* Texas -31.5 over Rice - Rice catching Texas in off their loss to Ohio St and a game which snapped their 21 game winning street. That doesn't bode well for Rice as Texas will be looking to make a statement here to get themselves back on the radar. Texas can name the score here and considering they are in a nasty mood, we figure the score they name will be more than the spot. Lay it.
2* TCU +2 over Texas Tech - TCU, which owns the longest current winning streak in the nation at 12, looking for a little revenge from when these two last met in 2004 as Texas Tech pasted TCU 70-35. Revenge only works if the team seeking it is good enough to get it. TCU is good enough.
2* Texas A&M -27 over Army - Another name your score game. With A&M obviously the one doing the naming. Talk about padding your schedule. A&M has played Citadel and La Lafayette so far this year. Now they take on Army, who had trouble with pathetic Kent State last week. But teams do this on purpose (pad the schedule). They WANT to destroy these teams. When the pollsters vote, they look at things like blow out wins and points scored. It looks impressive to see 63-10 scores on a teams record, regardless of who the opponent was. We think starting off the year with 3 patsys is a bit much, but such is the case here, so we'll lay it as the Aggies look to improve off their 5-6 season from a year ago. Also note that we are well aware that the tout rags are playing up the angle that Army has alot of Texas kids on their team. But the fact remains, if they were any good, they would probably have been playing somewhere else.
1* Michigan +6 over Notre Dame - It's against our religion to play a game at + 6 when we could have had +8 on Sunday night. So for now, this game way down at the bottom of our sheet. But we'll watch the number. If the Irish money comes in and gets us back to +7.5 or better, we'll boost this plays rating. This is a Michigan team largely intact from a year ago. A team that went 7-5 but could have easily won 10 or 11 games with a break here or there. Their losses last year were by 3 or 4 points with the exception of the ND game, which they lost by TD. They lost to Ohio State by just 4. The underdog in this series has covered 19 of 22!!! Games like this are why kids go to Notre Dame and Michigan. It doesn't get much bigger. We once again revisit our golden rule. When you look at a game where you feel the dog can win straight up, and you have some added motivation factors such as revenge, and playing a higher ranked team, you have all the ingredients for a best bet, providing you can get some cooperation from the line. A this point, we can't get our number so it's a small play. But we'll watch it and upgrade if the number moves.
3* Tennessee +4 over Florida - We're going to excuse the Vols for looking terrible last week and almost losing to Air Force at home. Chalk it up to looking ahead to Florida and coming down from the high of their opening week upset win over Cal, our first 5* winner here on the Key release page. We think the Vol team that beat Cal will be the team we see on Saturday. This series has seen it's share of nail biters and we look for another one here. This is another game where the trends favor the other team. The Vols have been terrible at home where they are 1-10 against the spread their last 11. Also note the Vols lost cornerback Inky Johnson last week which should have Florida QB Leak licking his chops at his replacement. But these are the situations in college football that we just can't pass up and that are good to us to the tune of 55 to 60 times out of 100. We have a good football program in Tennessee, at home, as an underdog, seeking revenge and playing a team that is ranked higher than them. Vols win this straight up. Right now there are all +3.5's but wait for +4. Or use Skybook for the free half!
3* LSU +3.5 over Auburn - Another huge game involving teams that are among the best in the nation and loaded with talent year after year. LSU in off an 11-2 year while Auburn turned in a 9-3 slate a year ago. Trends in this one favor Auburn as the home team in this series has won the last 6 straight up and has covered 4 of those. But also remember that once a trend becomes lopsided to the point that it stands out, all the value in that trend is in taking the OTHER side as significant trends are always considered when posting a line. Last years game went to OT and the year prior saw a one point game. We think LSU is the better team and can't pass up the added value.
2* Texas -31.5 over Rice - Rice catching Texas in off their loss to Ohio St and a game which snapped their 21 game winning street. That doesn't bode well for Rice as Texas will be looking to make a statement here to get themselves back on the radar. Texas can name the score here and considering they are in a nasty mood, we figure the score they name will be more than the spot. Lay it.
2* TCU +2 over Texas Tech - TCU, which owns the longest current winning streak in the nation at 12, looking for a little revenge from when these two last met in 2004 as Texas Tech pasted TCU 70-35. Revenge only works if the team seeking it is good enough to get it. TCU is good enough.
2* Texas A&M -27 over Army - Another name your score game. With A&M obviously the one doing the naming. Talk about padding your schedule. A&M has played Citadel and La Lafayette so far this year. Now they take on Army, who had trouble with pathetic Kent State last week. But teams do this on purpose (pad the schedule). They WANT to destroy these teams. When the pollsters vote, they look at things like blow out wins and points scored. It looks impressive to see 63-10 scores on a teams record, regardless of who the opponent was. We think starting off the year with 3 patsys is a bit much, but such is the case here, so we'll lay it as the Aggies look to improve off their 5-6 season from a year ago. Also note that we are well aware that the tout rags are playing up the angle that Army has alot of Texas kids on their team. But the fact remains, if they were any good, they would probably have been playing somewhere else.
1* Michigan +6 over Notre Dame - It's against our religion to play a game at + 6 when we could have had +8 on Sunday night. So for now, this game way down at the bottom of our sheet. But we'll watch the number. If the Irish money comes in and gets us back to +7.5 or better, we'll boost this plays rating. This is a Michigan team largely intact from a year ago. A team that went 7-5 but could have easily won 10 or 11 games with a break here or there. Their losses last year were by 3 or 4 points with the exception of the ND game, which they lost by TD. They lost to Ohio State by just 4. The underdog in this series has covered 19 of 22!!! Games like this are why kids go to Notre Dame and Michigan. It doesn't get much bigger. We once again revisit our golden rule. When you look at a game where you feel the dog can win straight up, and you have some added motivation factors such as revenge, and playing a higher ranked team, you have all the ingredients for a best bet, providing you can get some cooperation from the line. A this point, we can't get our number so it's a small play. But we'll watch it and upgrade if the number moves.