Weds hoops

[spang]

1-1 tues
20-11 YTD

Couple lines grabbed me right off the bat, will have more later

ODU +2
Kent St -4

[spang]

Correction

Got kent @ -3' not 4

[spang]

Delaware/ Loy of Maryland UNDER 143 double play

Really like this one and think the number will fall before tip

[spang]

More plays than I generally play but i like them all

Added plays

Marshall / Morehead over 134.

Saw the Herd the other night and came away somewhat impressed in their progress. They are pretty athletic and like to push Think Jirsa finally has the herd pointed in th right direction.Morehead should not mind a quick pace as well


E Mich +9 vs. Detroit
I really thought the Titans might have a decent team this year with Cotton and Coville leading the way, but Detroit has flat out looked awful thus far. I have serious doubts that they can beat anybody by double digits. Good chance for Carlos Medlock and the Eagles to get off my shit list and covering a 9 point spread is certainly within their abilities.

[fico720]

Hey Spang,

I like the Kent State pick...tough team and should take this game over early.

Also leaning on Michigan St +5.5 (Why is that line so high?)
Ohio St +8
Bradley -4
Hofstra pick

looking at these late ones if i do good on the early plays:

Cal-Santa Barbara -4.5
San Francisco +4

[spang]

Hey Spang,

I like the Kent State pick...tough team and should take this game over early.

Also leaning on Michigan St +5.5 (Why is that line so high?)
Ohio St +8
Bradley -4
Hofstra pick

looking at these late ones if i do good on the early plays:

Cal-Santa Barbara -4.5
San Francisco +4

Sorry Fico, I was away and did not have time to respond.

Well tonight served as a stark reminder as to why I largely stick to total plays. I dropped all 3 sides, and none were even close to covering. I was fortunate to cash my 2nd double play of the year on the delaware total, and Marshall went over easily. chalk it up as a 3-3 day so I got juiced for a bit.

YTD closes for the day at 23-14

[woodee12]

Hey Spang- Whats your main capping strategy for capping totals? Do you just look at recent performance and more of a teams style of play-most likely both.

But you are definitely solid and have it working. Just interested b/c I can't seem to ever get a good take on the totals.

Thanks and good luck.

[spang]

Woodee, Many factors including those that you mentioned as well as past history between the two sides, key injuries, matchups ( pay special attention to teams that frequently go with 3 guards and often try to out run bigger teams. (aka. Ohio State last night}

Most importantly for me though, is that in the early part of the season most teams have inflated offensive numbers due to games against much easier foes. That is why the vast majority of my plays are under the total this time of year, but that will change as the season progresses. Take a look at Missouri tonight for a good example. They have great offensive numbers but look who they have come against? The likes of Lipscomb, Coppin St. and NC A&T. Can the game still go over? sure can but I'm willing to bet that it doesn't.

So to sum it up, there is no set system, just a few variables and looking into a teams past competition are the keys early in the year.

[fico720]

Hey Spang,

Got burned again by Ohio St +8 (lost by 9) and Michigan State -5.5 (lost by 7). Oh well...today's a new day!

What do you have on tap today?

I'm looking at Manhattan +10.5
and Indiana St +5.5

Anyone else out there have any insight?

[spang]

Hey Spang,

Got burned again by Ohio St +8 (lost by 9) and Michigan State -5.5 (lost by 7). Oh well...today's a new day!

What do you have on tap today?

I'm looking at Manhattan +10.5
and Indiana St +5.5

Anyone else out there have any insight?

Fico, see the other thread, I accidently titled it weds instead of thursday