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There's lots of talk about "public" sides and wiseguys sides, going against the public, and so on, so let's discuss how you can determine those sides and potentially use that info to your advantage.
For starters, not all games have a clear cut "public" side and sharp side. Some do. But quite a few other games have lots of the public, AND sharps on the same side.
Think about it, if you through a dart, you'd end up on some of the sharp sides. So, naturally, there's going to be sides that have both, games that are mixed, and so on.
Many games divide the sharps....there's no such thing as every sharp bettor in the world being on one side of a game.
Lot's of books and sites now offer betting percentages. These percentages don't tell you how much money is bet on one side, they tell you the percentage of bets taken on one side.
Here's a strategy you can use.
Use sportsbook.com for betting percentages. Why? Because they are one of the largest books in the world, and have a very large sqaure clientel.
Use Pinnacle Sports for line movement. Why? Because they have virtually no "public" action anymore. Unless you consider their non american customers the "public". Not many of them are firing away at opening nfl lines a week ahead of time.
Every sharp player in the world plays at Pinnacle. Pinnacle still controls the marketplace. If a line moves at Pinnacle, it moves everywhere else shortly thereafter, including Vegas.
Let's take a look at this weeks Wild Card games......
Skins at Seattle
Pinny opened this game Seattle -5 -102........all the early action was on Washington. The line is now -3.5 +104....most all of the movement was in the first 24 hours.
So, in this game, many of the sites that list betting percentages have the Skins getting roughly 70% of the wagers. But note the early movement on the game.
This game is not a clear cut example of "going against the public" using these percentages. There is sharp action on the Skins, and there's likely to be sharp action on Seattle as well when the price is right.
Jags at Pittsburgh - Another game where there are a large number of wagers one way, on the jags, to the tune of 77% at sportsbook.com.....but check the early wagering at Pinnacle - They opened Pitt -1 +112 and the early action was on the Jags. The game flipped to Jags -1 -112 in less than an hour and has climbed ever since.
So, yes, there is alot of public action on the Jags, but there is also sharp action.
You'll see sharp action on this game at Pitt +3, so again, no clear way of going against the public here. If this game falls Jags by 2, you can be sure there will be sharp guys who won on BOTH sides.
Giants at Bucs
The Giants would fall under the heading of a public side, for sure. This game opened up Tampa -1 -124 and has climbed ever since. So, the game moved Tampa's way yet the bettiing percentages all favor the Giants. More bets on the Giants, yet the line moved the other way.........taking Tampa here would fit under "going against the public"
Titans at Chargers - Again, this one opened SD -7 AND IS NOW -10 at Pinnacle.
Don't assume that a bunch of squares decided to pound this game when it was posted on 12/30.......sharp action moved this number at first. Sure, the public will hop on board and play the heavily favored Chargers now, and the betting percentages will favor San Diego, but this isn't a clear cut example of going against the public either.
Sharp players layed -7.........the squares/public will lay -10 or more on gameday.....Any sharp action on game day will be on Tenn + 10 or more.
The difference between a sharp and a square isn't ALWAYS the side they are on. It's the price.
The lesson here?? Don't take these betting percentages you see posted at face value. They don't tell the whole story. Blindly betting games based on these percentages will not put you "against the public" or with the sharps.
Read more into it........look at some sharp books.......Pinnacle, Grande, CRIS.....read their line history and try and look for patterns in their action.....
For starters, not all games have a clear cut "public" side and sharp side. Some do. But quite a few other games have lots of the public, AND sharps on the same side.
Think about it, if you through a dart, you'd end up on some of the sharp sides. So, naturally, there's going to be sides that have both, games that are mixed, and so on.
Many games divide the sharps....there's no such thing as every sharp bettor in the world being on one side of a game.
Lot's of books and sites now offer betting percentages. These percentages don't tell you how much money is bet on one side, they tell you the percentage of bets taken on one side.
Here's a strategy you can use.
Use sportsbook.com for betting percentages. Why? Because they are one of the largest books in the world, and have a very large sqaure clientel.
Use Pinnacle Sports for line movement. Why? Because they have virtually no "public" action anymore. Unless you consider their non american customers the "public". Not many of them are firing away at opening nfl lines a week ahead of time.
Every sharp player in the world plays at Pinnacle. Pinnacle still controls the marketplace. If a line moves at Pinnacle, it moves everywhere else shortly thereafter, including Vegas.
Let's take a look at this weeks Wild Card games......
Skins at Seattle
Pinny opened this game Seattle -5 -102........all the early action was on Washington. The line is now -3.5 +104....most all of the movement was in the first 24 hours.
So, in this game, many of the sites that list betting percentages have the Skins getting roughly 70% of the wagers. But note the early movement on the game.
This game is not a clear cut example of "going against the public" using these percentages. There is sharp action on the Skins, and there's likely to be sharp action on Seattle as well when the price is right.
Jags at Pittsburgh - Another game where there are a large number of wagers one way, on the jags, to the tune of 77% at sportsbook.com.....but check the early wagering at Pinnacle - They opened Pitt -1 +112 and the early action was on the Jags. The game flipped to Jags -1 -112 in less than an hour and has climbed ever since.
So, yes, there is alot of public action on the Jags, but there is also sharp action.
You'll see sharp action on this game at Pitt +3, so again, no clear way of going against the public here. If this game falls Jags by 2, you can be sure there will be sharp guys who won on BOTH sides.
Giants at Bucs
The Giants would fall under the heading of a public side, for sure. This game opened up Tampa -1 -124 and has climbed ever since. So, the game moved Tampa's way yet the bettiing percentages all favor the Giants. More bets on the Giants, yet the line moved the other way.........taking Tampa here would fit under "going against the public"
Titans at Chargers - Again, this one opened SD -7 AND IS NOW -10 at Pinnacle.
Don't assume that a bunch of squares decided to pound this game when it was posted on 12/30.......sharp action moved this number at first. Sure, the public will hop on board and play the heavily favored Chargers now, and the betting percentages will favor San Diego, but this isn't a clear cut example of going against the public either.
Sharp players layed -7.........the squares/public will lay -10 or more on gameday.....Any sharp action on game day will be on Tenn + 10 or more.
The difference between a sharp and a square isn't ALWAYS the side they are on. It's the price.
The lesson here?? Don't take these betting percentages you see posted at face value. They don't tell the whole story. Blindly betting games based on these percentages will not put you "against the public" or with the sharps.
Read more into it........look at some sharp books.......Pinnacle, Grande, CRIS.....read their line history and try and look for patterns in their action.....
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