College Hoops Week of Jan. 21

[woodee12]

64-60 YTD

Monday:

Portland -1 over San Diego...Going against the grain here with the home team.

Possibly playing Texas but waiting to see what the line does...Wish I would have grabbed it earlier. Okie State looks like a strong home dog here but I juts don't think they have it against a strong Texas team. Okie lost to Iowa State on the road Saturday and I caught a few minutes of the game. ISU is better than I thought but haven't beat anyone good yet. Okie is just average too and texas need road wins like this to rise to the top of a top-heavy Big 12.

[dragon1952]

I took Texas -3 and then with them leading by 10 at HT I took OSU -1. Hope I didn't screw things up

[brad4498]

Dragon - i did the same...how bout that last second 3 to kill the middle. Oh well...thought we had there for a second

[dragon1952]

Well it worked out I guess. My question is...why even attempt a shot with .03 on the clock and down by 5? point-fucking-oh three? Man, I bet there are a lot of pissed Texas backers about now

[woodee12]

Would have been a nice win for the Okie backers. I actually took Texas but bought them to 2 b/c I had a weird feeling about that line. Happy with the push now, but what a freaking bad push. Should had been a W.

I thought Portland may have been a W too as they pulled back in the game late and were up when I went to bed, but lost by 3.

I am looking at Drake + the points at Creighton. Both good teams and Drake juts hit the top 25 yesterday.

[woodee12]

I did Play Drake at +5.5 over Creighton. Sticking to my guns on this one, as I have seen some people on Creighton. Think this is a tight game that Drake can win.

Northern Illinois -2 over Ball State...Gone against Ball state at home so have todo it on the road. Line now -1. Just think the homer gets the job done.

No other opinions tonight. Looked at New Mexico and Tennesee. Tenny looks like one of those road teams who is better but could get bit in Kentucky so I will sit back and watch this one.
Utah has been unpredictable all year and NM has been very good. Looks like an easy one on NM but will have to pass on them too.

[brad4498]

My plays for today:

I love clemson -11.5 over wake forest. I have this line at -16...so to me there is considerable value on Clemson in this one.

I really love Ohio State -7 over Illinois. My line has this game at -14...so even better value on this one. OSU coming off 2 close road losses to some very capable teams while Illinois is coming off a home win vs Michigan and a road loss vs Purdue. I think OSU gets it done tonight.

Last play of the day is a bit iffy. I like Michigan with the points 17.5 at Wisconsin. Wisconsin is 49-2 at home under Bo Ryan in Big 10 games....so i don't think they come close to losing. Something like 85% of Wisconsin's home wins are by 10 or more points under Bo Ryan but there are a lot of softies in that number. However, Wisconsin in the Big 10 this year has failed to cover a 15+ point line. I don't think Michigan will keep it closer than 10 but I do like their chances to keep it around 15. My line had the game being Wisconsin by 19.5...but I just can't take the badgers here. Even giving them their 50% FG % in the big 10, and 35% FG % defense in the big 10..i only got to -19.5 for the line. I'm just not a believer in Wisconsin being able to win by more than 15 against anyone in the Big 10 based on what i've seen this year. That being said..all it takes is michigan to shoot 25% and they'll get beat by 25. But I like Michigan to keep it close.

[woodee12]

Added Michigan +18 and Clemson -11 too. Both for 1/2 unit. Think Michigan hangs just enough and they don't quit like you mentioned once before.

[brad4498]

less than 5 mins to go in each of the following games:

Michigan looks solid..close enough at this point that they could win.

Clemson is down big enough that they won't cover. They may still win but they won't cover. Disappointed in this Clemson here. Early numbers i've looked at show that Clemson isn't shooting particularly well.

[woodee12]

Adding:

Colorado State +9 for 1/2 unit over Air Force

[garister]

I was wondering why u like Colo State today, I was leaning AF. Good Luck no play for me.its 8 1/2 on my book now

[brad4498]

gotta love when a team blows a 15 point lead in the last 5 mins of the game. On top of that, they still had a chance to cover but couldn't hit their free throws. Oh well...1-2 on the day..very easily could have been 2-1. I still think Ohio State was teh play..but just like i've noticed in a lot of the big 10 games...the teams that get down about 15 points..won't roll over and die..and usually get back to around 10 or less. In this case..it was what i would consider the sportsbetting version of a bad beat..there of course are worse ways to lose..but up 15..doubling the spread..5 mins left...and then not cover because missed free throws and a huge collapse.

[woodee12]

That was a bad read on CSU and a loss. Wish I would have held off but it was one of those I circled early and did not want to leave it off.

Ohio State did blow it big time. I passed on that game.

Michigan made it a game! I think what made it a play for me was Brad saying a few weeks back how he noticed Michigan fighting until the end. That spread looked too big to me and it was since they only lost by 3.

I actually got a win on NIU as I grabbed it at -1 but FSM has it as a push for me. Clemson did not show up. Drake came back from a 6 point deficit at half to win in OT. CSU was actually down 1 at half but got smoked in the 2nd half.

One game that sticks out to me today is UConn -2 at Cinnci. Cinnci off a win vs. Pitt giving us some extra value here on the better team. I am laying the 2, even on the road. Uconn played Sunday and beat Marquette.

Looking over the Big 12 card too. Nothing really jumping out at me. Kansas is favored by 25 over Iowa State...Was going to be all over KU if the line was 18 or less but I think that is a bit too steep for me and I will watch and cheer for my ISU team as a fan but not a bettor.

[woodee12]

Wednesday Plays:

Lasalle +1 over Charlotte

NC State -2 over GTech

UConn -2 over Cinnci

[brad4498]

Indeed Michigan was great-they almost pulled out a W...which was extremely improbable. One thing that I have been noticing with them lately is that Manny Harris is the real deal. The kid can play..and I think he may have finally realized that he can single handedly take over a game. Watch out for Michigan to take down some bigger teams if Harris has a solid game. If the guys around him can give him a little help.....michigan might actually be considered decent.