College Hoops--Week Starting Jan.28++$$$

[woodee12]

Not a bad week for me last week after I let the dust clear and took a bit of a break. I did not really play too much except for a couple on Sunday and sat back and watched things unfold. I do think selectivity is the key and if there is a play that may have the slightest chance not grading out as a play, it is wise to pass. I have to keep telling myself this.

And also another golden rule some of us learned last week, is that a line that looks too good to be true, usually probably is I.e. Dayton +11 over Xavier last week. I would say 90% of the time, if the line looks wacked out, go the other way that you think or pass like someone said.

So onto Monday where nothing really stciks out to me yet. Going to look at theta Okie/Okie State game as I think this one may be tight. Okie won on the road saturday and I think that gives us some good value on the doggie Cowboys.

[woodee12]

4 plays for my monday.

Louisville +2 over Uconn

San Fran +1 vs. Santa Clara

Boise State +2 over Fresno--Line moved but I grabbed the 2 this morning. Now a pk I think.

Okie State/Okie UNDER 134

[garister]

2-1 woodee nice start to the week, I was just watching the action.

[woodee12]

Thanks. Lines are getting tight it looks like. Louisville could have been a loss for a lot if you did not get that early number. I actually bought the 1/2 on that one too.

San Fran was a bad play--they are not good and that BS Eddie Sutton 800 win crap shaded my capping.

Okie State decided not to score for about 10 minutes in the 1st half so that helped the under. I actually grabbed Okie -7 for the 2nd half after I watched them man-handle Okie State in the first half--They have no inside game and that will hurt them down the road if they are knocking down their outside shots. Okie may be a team to watch with their big men and if their PG stays healthy.

[woodee12]

Going with 3 today:

Nohting to scientific. Hope for another 2-1 day with 3-0 being a bonus.

Wake -1 vs. Miami...Home team wins.

Bama +5 over Tenny...Like the way bama looked Saturday and a strong HD tonight.

Witchita State -1 over Mizzou State...Home team, thats all.

Looked at Colorado +6 at Iowa State and may play it later. Still think that ISU is not that great and they showed it on the road at K-State. But home court does scare me a bit vs. soft colorado team. May be back with more info on this later.

[garister]

good luck wood-

Everyone I like in College tonight is visiting and Im not going to risk $$ on them

Ohio st, VCU, SD State(rams have looked awful),

[zshimer]

Like the Wake Forest pick.... also going with Bucks +5 in the NBA.

[woodee12]

Adding Colorado +6 over ISU

[brad4498]

5/6 last week in the big ten and 4/7 in the acc. Looking for another solid week from these conferences.

For tonight:

I like Wake Forest at home -1.5. My rough prediction for the game shows miami 77 wake 75...but with wake being at home..I like them to get it done. This game really could go either way.

I like Ohio State tonight even though they are on the road. As I said before Penn State has gotten blasted since losing Claxton. No reason to believe it won't continue until they show me otherwise. I've got ohio state by 13 in this one so at -7 its a steal. Rough sketch of the final score 69-56. Dangerous part in this game is that Ohio State usually doesn't put up more than 70..75 tops...so if PSU scores at all..its trouble.

Lastly I like Florida State +4 at Va Tech. I have the game sketched out as a 66-65 victory for Va Tech. Which would equal a Florida State cover. Going with the road dog here..but again this game could go either way especially if it is close with free throws down the wire.

Good luck to all..hoping for a 2-1 night like woodee said...3-0 is a super bonus.

[brad4498]

well..i got my 2-1. Can't complain. OSU got it done, Wake got lucky, and FSU dug to big of a first half hole to be able to fully come back from. They came close, but their inability to hit shots in the last minute was the difference. Va Tech shot better than I anticipated, but for their part so did FSU. Didn't see this game but both teams shot around 50% so they couldn't have been playing much D as these teams certainly aren't offensive juggernauts.

Woodee- you had your 2-1..but then with the colorado play you dropped to 2-2. I honestly didn't like the Colorado play. I think they might be a team best to stay away from unless they are getting some points at home..because they play well at home. But you never know what team is going to show up...they got hammered last night, but yet they've taken care of business at home.

3 Big 10/ACC games on the slate today. I should have some picks posted later in the day.

[woodee12]

Yeah, that colorado play was shitty. I watched the game and they were actually up by 7 in the first half but decided to score about 15 points from there on out to hit their 41 for the game. ISU did not impress me too much either and if they were playing a good team they would have got beat by 50.

I actually thru a ML parlay in there too with Ohio State/GMason so I came out on the plus side for the night.

I have a bunch I like tonight by looking at the lines. Couple juicy lines in my opinion...A couple I like right off are Dayton -8 over St.Louis and Air Force +5 over BYU. Both at home.

[zshimer]

A few early leans for the day....
Cincinnati +14
Missouri -5
Houston +9.5

Still undecided about this Houston play... I know Memphis is explosive and can score in bunches, but i think Houston keeps it close so I'll lean towards taking the points with them at home. What do you guys think?

[woodee12]

Here are my 3 early plays where i think lines will move later:

Dayton -8 over St.Louis...Already beat St.Louis this year on the road.

Air Force +5 over BYU...Not sold on BYU on the road and AF plays D.

UCF -2 over UAB...Bought 1/2...Better home team vs. bad roas team.

Staying with the home teams agian on these plays.

May have 1-2 more later but these are my favs of the card after a quick run through. At this point in the season I play more on feel than anything else, not many stats but just what I have observed about the teams and the lines that the oddsmakers have been putting on these teams.

[dragon1952]

That last Dayton/St. Louis matchup was a pretty even game. Each team scored 30 in the 1st half and then 25 each in the 2nd half. Dayton pulled out an improbable 11 pt win as they dominated in OT 13-2.

[brad4498]

I'm not sold on Dayton. That St. Louis game was close and they aren't a bad team. To me this one just seems too iffy.

Air force is also iffy for me. I like them because they are at home..but 5 is not enough for me to really like them in this game.

I like UAB over UCF..even though UCF is at home I think UAB is the better team and has the ability to win on the road.

Not so sure about Houston either. Even though they have played well..Memphis has been pretty solid ATS. With teams like Kansas, and Memphis, UNC, and Duke you are better off just playing them every game and at the end of the year you are likely going to come out a winner. If you try to guess which games they won't cover you could end up losing the advantage that is there. These teams records against the spread at this point are enough that if you played on them every game you would be doing very well at this point.

Back with my big 10/Acc plays in a few