MLB Baseball--Plays and discussion

[woodee12]

I am ready to grind out some cash for the upcoming football season. Smart, selective picks from here on out. Actually won a couple small plays yesterday. Going to limit the plays to see what teams do out of the gate from the all-star break. I am looking for some teams that are well-rested and have well-rested arms in the bullpen mainly. I have got beat a lot by bad bullpens in the first half, so that is going to be a key factor in my selections from here on out.

One for Friday:

Atlanta/Washington UNDer 8.5...Hudson/Redding...2 decent pitchers and 2 low scoring offenses. Close, low-scoring game from what I see.

[woodee12]

Couple more for friday--

Baltimore -125 over Detroit...Why wouldn't you play the Tigers as a dog here? Thats why I am going opposite. KIind of like Boston being a dog but you know their road woes so I am skipping that one. Like Guthrie over gallarag in the pitching match up too.

Padres +112 over Cards...Cards bullpen is the crap even if they have the lead they cannot hold it

Jays+150 over Rays...Nice price on Burnett against struggling Rays.

[woodee12]

Lots of people on the Twins. I may throw a Texas play in there too. Too many on them for my liking!

[dragon1952]

Friday July 18

2-team parlay #1
Angels -144 vs Red Sox - (Lackey 6-2, 2.46 vs Buchholz 2-4, 5.70) - Pretty good price for the Angels at home with Lackey going, although he is coming off of two bad starts in a row after a 6 game stretch that saw him only give up 6 runs total and go 5-0 with a no-decision. Buchholz has given up 16 runs and 23 hits over his last 3 starts in which he has only lasted a total of 13 innings. Possibly a good chance of an OV 7.5 if Lackey doesn't return to form.
Minnesota -123 vs Texas - (Perkins 6-2, 4.14 vs Millwood 6-5, 5.11) Pretty nice price for the home team Twins who are 13-2 in their last 15 home games and 32-18 overall at home this year. Perkins hasn't given up more than 3 runs in his last 7 starts and is 4-0 with 3 no-decisions over that same period.

2-team parlay #2
Baltimore/Detroit UN 9.5 -105 - (Guthrie 5-7, 3.49 vs Galarraga 7-3, 3.27) - Two pitchers with ERA's under 3.50. Galarraga has only given up 17 runs total over his last 9 starts and Guthrie has only given up 22 over his last 9 starts. If the bullpens don't screw things up this could be a decent under shot.
Dodgers -116 @ Arizona - (Kuroda 5-6, 3.43) Arizona - Doug Davis 3-4, 3.80) - Kuroda has been very good lately and LA now only a game behind the floundering Diamondbacks. Time for a little payback for Arizona's earlier success vs the Dodgers.

2-team parlay #3
St Louis -133 vs Padres - Cards have out-scored the Pads 23-10 and have won 3 of 4 in this series this year. Maddux 0-5 with 7 no-decisions over his last 12 starts. San Diego only 14-29 away this year.
Florida -108 vs Philadelphia - (Nolasco 10-4, 3.70 vs Moyer 8-6, 3.95) I really like Ricky Nolasco. He is 9-1 with 2 no-decisions over his last 12 starts. He is 4-0 at home during that same period, an in those 4 home wins he has only given up 4 runs on 16 hits total in 28 innings of work. I am also leaning towards the UN 9 runs in this game as Moyer hasn't given up more than 3 runs in any of his last 7 starts.

[dragon1952]

Recap - Yesterday I hit parlay #1 and got 1 wrong each on #2 and #3. Both of my total leans won with the under in the Phil/Fla game and the over in the Ana/Bos game.

Sunday - July 19
St Louis RL -1.5 +150 - (Wellemeyer 7-4, 4.04 vs Wolf 6-9, 4.66) Like I mentioned yesterday, the Cards have the Pads number this year winning 4 of 5 so far. The Pads are a miserable 14-30 on the road. Wolf is 1-5 in his last 6 starts giving up a total of 23 runs on 37 hits (7 HR) and 19 walks in only 29 innings, or only 4.85 innings per start avg. Wellemeyer has hit a rough spot lately also as his ERA has jumped from 2.92 to 4.04 over his last 5 starts where hes has gone 0-3 with 2 no-decisions and given up 21 runs and 37 hits over a 24.2 inning stretch. Leaning towards OV 9 runs at even odds here.
Angels +108 vs Red Sox - (Saunders 12-5, 3.07 vs Beckett 9-5, 3.94) - Good home dog opportunity here. Not sure why the Sox are favored. Boston has had it's troubles on the road and now facing a solid Angel team with All-Star Joe Saunders going for his 13th win. Saunders has gone 3-2 and only given up 9 runs over his last 5 starts (33.2 innings). Beckett has given up a few more runs lately but has been the beneficiary of decent run support. Both pitchers have fared well vs the respective clubs but will look for the Angels, who clobbered the Red Sox yesterday, to come through for their 4th win in a row.
Minnesota -110 vs Texas - (Hernandez 9-6, 5.44 vs Harrison 1-0, 6.52) - Hernandez can certainly give up a few runs, but the Twins are now 14-2 in their last 15 home games and 33-18 overall at home this year after defeating Texas yesterday 6-0. It seems the Twins just aren't getting much respect with the odds-makers. So even with Hernandez starting, I'll gladly go with the hot home team vs a pitcher making only his 3rd career start, and very first road start, and who only lasted 2.2 innings vs the White Sox last time out.

2-team parlay #1
St Louis -138 vs Padres - (Wellemeyer 7-4, 4.04 vs Wolf 6-9, 4.66) - See above
White Sox -142 vs Kansas City - (Floyd 10-5, 3.63 vs Meche 6-9, 4.71) - I have no idea why this line is so low. Chicago is 33-13 at home this year vs KC's 21-30 road record. Chicago has owned the Royals in winning 6 of the 7 match-ups this year. Over the past 4 years Chicago owns a 40-20 record vs the Royals, which improves to 25-7 when the games have been played in Chicago. Floyd is 7-1 with a 2.57 ERA in 10 home starts this year. And Meche got clobbered pretty good last month in his start in Chicago giving up 5 runs and 8 hits in 5.2 innings and taking the 'L'. On 6/3, Floyd held the Royals to only 2 runs on 6 hits over 7 innings in KC for the 'W'. I don't get it.

2-team parlay #2
Milwaukee -140 @ San Francisco - (Sheets 10-3, 2.85 vs Sanchez 8-5, 3.97) - Looking for the Brew Crew to make a move in the second half. All-Star Ben Sheets going today following Sabathia's 9-1 W yesterday too bad for the Giants. Possible low-scoring game as Sanchez hasn't been too shabby himself.
Arizona/LADodgers UN 7.5 runs -120 - (Haren 8-5, 2.72 vs Billingsley 9-8, 3.25) - Good pitching matchup between All-Star Haren and Chad Billingsley. Billingsley has only given up 10 runs total over his last 6 starts (5-1) and Haren has only given up 9 runs total over his last 9 starts, obviously without much run support.

[dragon1952]

Recap of Saturday - Hit 2 out of 3 on the straight bets winning with Anaheim and Minnesota. Missed on St Louis -1.5 as they only won by a run. Hit parlay #2 with Milwaukee and Arizona/Dodger UN 7.5. Hit the lean on OV 9 Cards/Pads. Won with the Cards on parlay #1 but missed badly with the White Sox.

Sunday - July 20 I sleep late so here's a couple I like.

2-team Parlay
Cards -145 vs San Diego - (Garcia NR vs Baek 2-4, 5.14) I don't care who's pitching for St Louis, the Pads suck. The Cards have now won 5 of 6 from San Diego this year. Cards get the sweep.
Minnesota -135 vs Texas - (Baker 6-2, 3.47 vs Padilla 10-5, 4.70) The Twins now 15-2 last 17 home games and 34-18 overall at home. Padilla's ERA has been on the rise in climbing from 3.16 on 5/17 to current 4.70.

Leans -
NYY/Oakland UN 8 - (Pettitte 10-7, 4.03 vs Duchscherer 10-5, 1.82) Duchscherer's ERA says it all. And Oakland having trouble scoring. Pettitte held them to a run on 5 hits over 8 innings last month. The day before that Duchscherer held the Yanks to a run on 5 hits over 7 innings.


Also looking at Angels, Cleveland and Cincinnati.

[dragon1952]

Recap of Sunday - Went 1-1 on the parlay with a tough Twin loss. They only gave up 1 run on 3 hits and still lost. Won with the Cards again vs the hapless Padres. Went 3-1 on the leans, winning with the NYY/Oak UN 7.5, Angels and Cleveland and a tough loss with the Reds who lost in extra innings.

Monday - July 21st
All new match-ups to start off the week. San Diego moves on to Cincinnati and you can bet I'll be on the Reds. Rick Harden and the Cubs face Randy Johnson and the fading Diamondbacks. I like that one at. The hot Brewers (who just added Ray Durham) move on to St Louis. I wonder how the Cards will fare against a real team. They had to come from behind in 3 of the games vs the Pads. Boston will be glad to move on to Seattle, I'm sure. The overnight line shows Lester just a -128 favorite over Washburn. And red hot Minnesota moves on to New York and might be a nice dog in the first game with Blackburn facing fat ass Ponson? I'll sleep on it.

[woodee12]

Monday-

Up and down weekend for me. I lost saturday but won Sunday. I bet my overall saturday record is probably the worst day for me for some reason.

3 pack for Monday--

Pirates +135 over Houston...More of a value play here wiht Pitts facing Runleavs Hernandez and I don't think he should be a -155 favorite anytime. Pitts pitcher is not great but worth a shot in a shoot out. Over is 10.5 now and that may be worth a look too.

Brew Crew +100 over STL...Cards are scraping by and now they get a hot, good team to deal with tonight. Pinero is Pinero and he is barely hanging on to his starting job at the moment. McGlung is not great for Milwaukee but a slight edge. both teams are coming off good series over bad teams but I see Milwaukee staying hot and taking this series. I may bet them at +100 for the series too with Sheets on the mound on Tuesday.

Tigers -105 over Royals....A text book everyone on the tigers day but I see Minor pitching them into a winning ticket over KC. Hate this kind of play but too many advantages not to take the Tigers here.

[dragon1952]

OK...after sleeping on it some of those didn't look as good. Maybe later on in these series. So..........
Monday - July 21

Oakland +174 @ Tampa Bay - (Eveland 7-6. 3.49 vs Kazmir 7-5, 3.04) Going to take a chance on this one between two slumping teams as the price is nice. And Eveland did pitch a gem against the Rays earlier in the year in pitching a complete game, 3 hitter in which he only gave up 1 run. Kazmir has done well vs the A's in the past, but has faltered a bit recently as he has gone 1-4 with a couple no-decisions over his last 7 starts. During that time his ERA has crept up a bit from 1.40 to 3.04. Eveland has not given up more than 3 runs in any of his last 8 starts, and only twice in 19 starts this year.

Florida -109 vs Atlanta - (Volstad 2-0, 0.84 vs Campillo 4-4, 3.06) Atlanta with a very poor 15-32 road record. Florida at 28-21 at home. 21 year old Chris Volstad will make only the 2nd start of his career at the MLB level, and very first home start so he should be pumped. In his first start he went 1 out shy of a complete game and held the Dodgers to only 1 run on 5 hits with 6 SO's and only 1 BB. In one other relief appearance he pitched 2 innings vs the Rockies and gave up no runs on 2 hits to pick up the 'W'. Campillo has pitched very well this year but has only managed a 2-4 record over his last 6 starts and has given up 4 dingers in his last 3 games, whereas he had only given up 4 previously in his first 8 starts. Not sure if that means anything, but Florida is leading the majors with 140 HR's (compared to 95 for the Braves). Florida did well vs Campillo early last month in tagging him for 4 runs on 6 hits, including 2 HR's and knocking him out after only 4 innings. Also leaning towards the UN 9 runs in this game.

2-team parlay #1
Pirates/@Houston OV 10.5 -125 - (Van Benschoten 1-2, 9.77 vs Hernandez 0-3, 10.29) Two rag arms going at it in a hitter-friendly park. Both have been sent down to the minors already. Hernandez has been brought up to fill in for the injured Oswalt. I can't believe they don't have anyone better down there. He only lasted 4 innings earlier this month vs the Pirates and gave up 10 runs on 13 hits with 4 BB and 2 HR's before getting yanked. He even sucked when they sent him down. In that same series, Van Benschoten got tagged for 4 runs on 7 hits and walked 6 in lasting only 4.2 innings.
Cubs -136 @ Arizona - (Harden 5-1, 2.34 (0-0, 0.00 with the Cubs) vs Johnson 6-7, 5.23) In his first starts for the Cubs, Harden went 5 innings in giving up no runs on 5 hits and struck out 10. Johnson has won 2 in a row now after an 8 game winless stretch that saw him go 0-6 with a couple no-decisions. Arizona has seen their once formidable lead evaporate to nothing and now actually find themselves 2 games under .500 and tied with L.A. They are only 26-38 playing outside of their division. The Cubs, on the other hand, are 35-21 outside of their division.

2-team parlay #2
Boston -142 @ Seattle - (Lester 7-3, 3.38 vs Washburn 4-8, 4.83) Not much to say about this one. Boston has struggled on the road and Seattle has struggled, period. Just a gamble that Boston prevails with Lester on the mound as he hasn't actually been tagged with the 'L' in his last 8 starts and has 4 wins over that same period.
Florida/Atlanta UN 9 EVEN - (Volstad 2-0, 0.84 vs Campillo 4-4, 3.06) Pitchers listed must start. See above write-up on the Florida/Atlanta game.

[woodee12]

Like that Florida play--Going to add that to my plays and tail you on it.

Alos adding:

Cleveland +175 over LAA...Let down maybe?

Over 9.5 Yanks/Twins (+105)...As you said, dough-boy Ponson on the mound vs. Blackburn. See a 15-14 game here!

[woodee12]

One last one that i have batted back and forth all day--

OVER 10 SD/Cinnci...SD bullpen got some work to say the least at STL over the weekend and their bats actually worked well. Cinnci is tough on Righties and think they light Banks up.

[woodee12]

5-1-1 for me and probably the best day I have had all year with a couple nice doggy wins.

Early leans for me today are:

Florida
Toronto
Cubs

[woodee12]

Ended up playing those 3.

Cubs -110 over Dbacks...Marquis must go. Think cubs bats wake up tonight vs. petit and Marquis has been solid and off a good rest.

Jays -103 over Orioles...No real reason that I can think of excpet I am waiting for the Jays to wake up too. Marcum over Olson is a solid match up in the Jays favor.

Marlins -110 over Braves...Braves still do not impress me on the road. Marlins offense is too loaded not to score some runs.

[dragon1952]

Nice day woodee!

I missed my 2 straight bets as they both got shutout 4-0. I did hit parlay #2 and got 1 out of 2 on the other. The loss was a tough one as the Cubs only gave up 2 runs on 2 hits but failed to score themselves.

Tuesday - July 22
Straight bets

Mets/Phillies OV 7.5 EVEN - (Santana 8-7, 3.10 vs Blanton 0-0, 0.00) - Joe Blanton, who was 5-12, 4.96 for Oakland, gets his first start as a Phillie vs the red hot Mets at Shea Stadium. He's given up 4 or more runs 9 times in his 20 starts. Lately he's had a couple good ones mixed with some really bad ones. In two of his last 5 starts he went 7 innings and only gave up a run each. In the other 3 starts he only lasted 13 innings total and gave up 21 runs. Bottom line is that he can get torched. And I seriously doubt that the Phillies will get blanked as they are 2nd in HR's in MLB and 2nd in the NL in runs scored. The Mets are tied for 3rd in the NL in runs scored.

Washington EVEN @ San Francisco - (Bergmann 1-6, 4.03 vs Zito 4-12, 5.62) - Never thought I'd be picking the Nats. Not that Washington's road record is very good or anything, but the Giants home record is certainly lacking at 17-31. Plus, they have only won once in their last 10 games. Washington has picked it up recently and are actually 4-4 in their last 8 games and have won 2 in a row. Their bats came alive in Atlanta where they scored 29 runs in the 3 game series. And over their last 8 games they have scored 53 runs. Bergmann deserves better than his 1-6 record would imply as he has given up 1 run or less in 7 of his 13 starts and 2 runs or less in 9 of them. The Giants are 5-14 when Zito starts.

San Diego -116 @ Cincinnati - (Peavy 7-6, 2.66 vs Cueto 7-9, 4.92) - Peavy rarely has 2 bad outings in a row so I'll look for him to be back in form. Prior to his last outing where he got tagged for 4 runs over 7 innings, all homers, he had a stretch of 6 games where he only gave up 7 runs total and no runs in 3 of them.

2-team parlay #1

Tampa Bay -149 vs Oakland - (Sonnanstine 10-4, 4.5 vs Braden 1-0, 4.80) Dallas Braden comes out of the bullpen to replace the traded Joe Blanton. Braden wasn't too successful last year as a starter in compiling a 1-8, 7.31 record. Oakland has lost 6 games in a row now and have only managed to scored 9 runs total in those games combined while giving up 25. Rays have won 7 of Sonnanstine's last 8 starts and 14 of 19 overall.

Red Sox -158 @ Seattle - (Matsuzaka 10-1, 2.65 vs Dickey 2-4, 3.73) - Will look for the Sox to make it 2 in a row over the worst team in the A.L. The Mariners, at 38-61, would actually be 6 1/2 games behind the next worse team, the last place A.L. Central Cleveland Indians. The Red Sox are 13-3 when ace Matsuzaka pitches this year.

2-team parlay #2

B]St Louis -142[/B] vs Milwaukee - (Lohse 12-2, 3.35 vs Suppan 5-6, 4.71) -
The Cards have lost once in Lohse's last 12 starts, a stretch that has seen him go 10-0 with 2 no-decisions. Suppan has only lasted 15.2 innings total over his last 4 starts during which he has been tagged for 21 runs (18 earned) on 30 hits.
Colorado/Los Angeles UN 10.5 -125 - (Jimenez 5-9, 4.20 vs Kershaw 0-2, 4.42) Jimenez has given up 3 runs or less in 17 of his 21 starts resulting in a 5-16 'under' record. Kershaw, back up from the minors where he only gave up 2 runs in 18 innings over 3 starts, will be aiming to stay here this time.


Leans
I'm putting this as a lean as I usually suck big-time when it comes to picking Yankee games.
Yankees -129 vs Minnesota - (Rasner 5-7, 4.97 vs Slowey 6-6..4.26) - The Yanks are hot and have won 4 in a row, 9 of 12 and 8 home games in a row. They seem to have the Twins number when they play in New York as Minnesota has only won 3 of the last 10 meetings there and 6 of the last 20.

[woodee12]

2-1 for me on Tuesday.

Wednesday--

Early action

Astros -135 over Pitts...Moehler has pitched well of late and cannot see Pitss sweeping Stros on the road.

Small parlay--

Rays/Reds