MLB Baseball--Plays and discussion

[woodee12]

One more afternoon play-

KC -110 over Detorit...Why not, with Greinke on the mound and the public all over Detorit?

[dragon1952]

Recap of Tuesday -
Tough day for me. 1 of 3 right on the straight bets hitting with the NYM/PHI OV and then the Pads blew a 3 run lead and lost in extra innings and Washington lost in S.F. On parlay #2 I lost 2 very tough to swallow games as the Cards blew a 3 run lead by giving up 4 late runs and on the Col/LAD under 10.5 it was only 6-0 in the bottom of the 8th when the Dodgers inserted a rag arm for mop-up duty who promptly gave up 6 hits and 4 runs. Still had a chance in the top of the 9th but Matt Kemp hit a lead off homer to screw the under by a half a stinking run. The Red Sox hit for me on parlay #1 but I missed badly with Tampa Bay. My lean with the Yankees did win though.

Wednesday - July 23
Straight bets

Florida -105 vs Atlanta - (Nolasco 10-5, 3.78 vs Hudson 10-7, 3.31) - Ricky Nolasco is 9-2 with 2 no-decisions over his last 13 starts, including 4-1 at home. In his last 5 home starts he has only given up a total of 8 runs over 35 innings. Florida is 13-6 overall when Nolasco starts this year. Hudson is 0-4 with 2 no-decisions his last 6 road starts. Atlanta is only 16-33 away this year.

Washington +110 @ San Francisco - (Balester 1-2, 5.87 vs Correia 1-5, 5.81) - Gotta go with the Nats again as the Giants are only 1-10 when Correia starts this year. San Francisco is only 2-9 in their last 11 games.
Arizona +111 vs Chicago Cubs - (Davis 3-4, 4.14 vs Lilly 9-6, 4.49) - Arizona certainly seems to have the Cubs number when they play them at home as they have won 8 of the last 9 meetings there and 27 of the last 34. Chicago is 1-4 on the current road trip and have been held to 2 runs or under 4 times.

NYM/Phi OV 9 EVEN - (Maine 8-7, 4.22 vs Myers 3-9, 5.84) - I'm going to go with the over in this match-up again as these are 2 of the top scoring teams in the N.L. and Myers likes to give up lots of runs. Myers has given up a staggering 24 HR's this year. He's given up 9 over his last 4 starts, a stretch in which he has surrendered 20 runs on 26 hits in only 21 innings. Maine can give up a few runs too as he has given up 14 runs on 15 hits and 15 walks over his last 4 starts and has only averaged around 4.2 innings per game.

2-team parlay

Baltimore -112 vs Toronto - (Guthrie 6-7, 3.60 vs Burnett 10-9, 4.84) - Over his last 8 starts Burnett has faced the O's twice giving up 15 runs on 17 hits in only 9.2 innings. Guthrie has also faced Toronto twice, both on the road, giving up just 2 runs and 10 hits over 14 innings. Now he gets them at home. Prior to last night's win, Toronto was in a bit of a road slump winning just 5 times in 20 tries. Baltimore is 28-19 at home this year. The OV 8.5 runs at EVEN odds might be worth a look as the OV is 9-1 in the 10 Bal/Tor meetings this year and 14-1 in the last 15 meetings.
NY Mets -133 vs Philadelphia - (Maine 8-7, 4.22 vs Myers 3-9, 5.84) - The Phillies are only 4-13 when Myers starts this year and are only 1-11 in his last 12 road starts

[dragon1952]

Friday - July 25

2-team parlay #1
Tampa Bay -108 @ Kansas City - (Jackson 5-7, 4.25 vs Bannister 7-8, 5.49) - Bannister has given up 23 runs on 29 hits including 5 HR's over his last 4 starts totaling only 18.1 innings. He got shelled earlier this month in Tampa Bay.
Minnesota +185 @ Cleveland - (Hernandez 10-6, 5.29 vs Lee 13-2, 2.29) - The Twins 6-3 vs Cleveland this year. Cleveland may start looking at some younger players soon sine their season is about shot anyway.

2-team parlay #2
Pirates -126 vs Padres - (Duke 4-7, 4.92 vs Baek 2-4, 4.66) - Pirates have played pretty well at home vs Padres ugly 15-35 road record.
Colorado/Cincinnati UN 8.5 -120 - (Cook 12-6, 3.58 vs Volquez 12-3, 2.49) - All Star pitching match-up.

[woodee12]

On 3 of your 4 plays already. Passing on the SD/Pitts game.

I am also looking at Baltimore, Colorado, and St.Louis

[woodee12]

Tigers/Sox UNDER 10.5

Cards +168 over Mets

Baltimore +115 over LAA

Yanks +1.5/Rockies +1.5 ...Parlay

Thats all I have-short on time.

[dragon1952]

I don't think I have ever had as many 1 and 1/2 run losses as I've had in the last week. I should probably take a break and let this trend pass.

[dragon1952]

Recent trade news

Well evidently the Pirates pulled Xavier Nady out prior to the 2nd inning on Friday as he was traded to the Yanks. Just my luck that they pull their best player when I've got money on them. This will add a big bat to the Yankees line-up as Nady is currently hitting .330 with 13 HR, 26 2B and 57 RBI, despite missing a couple weeks to injuries.
CC Sabathia has been a huge lift to the Brewers as he has now gone 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA since his acquisition. With Sabathia, Ben Sheets (10-3, 2.87 and Manny Parra (9-3, 3.72) the Brewers have one of the best 1,2,3 punches in baseball.
Arizona picked up closer Jon Rausch from Washington. Rausch was 4-2 with a 2.98 ERA and 17 saves. Not sure this will turn the Diamondbacks season around as I'm not sure that was their main issue, but it certainly won't help Washington much.
The Cubs picked up Rick Harden from the A's, which should help their chances . In 2 starts Harden has pitched to a .073 ERA giving up only 1 run and 6 hits over 12 innings with a staggering 20 strike outs but he is only 0-1 with a no decision. He got the start today vs the Marlins and it looks like he went 5 innings giving up only a single run on 2 hits with 10 more strike outs....amazing!
The Dodgers picked up infielder Casey Blake from Cleveland as the Indians continue to throw the towel in. Blake at .289 with 11 homers and 58 RBI should help the Dodgers who are starting to get healthier with Nomar Garciaparra and Andruw Jones finally back in the lineup.

[dragon1952]

Saturday July 26

Yankees +106 @ Boston - (Pettitte 11-7, 3.86 vs Wakefield 6-7, 3.69) - Going with the hot Yanks who have won 7 in a row and 12 of 15.

[dragon1952]

More - Saturday July 26

Twins -102 @ Cleveland - (Baker 6-3, 3.26 vs Carmona 4-2, 3.10) - The Indians throwing in the towel and re-tooling for the future. Batting AVG and RBI leader Casey Blake was the recent victim getting traded to the Dodgers today. Baker has pitched extremely well in 2 starts vs the Indians this year in giving up just 2 runs on 13 hits over 14 innings. Carmona coming off of the DL and making his first appearance since May 23rd.

Dodgers RL -1.5 +105 vs Washington- (Lowe 7-8, 3.97 vs Perez 3-7, 3.99) - Just when it looked like the Nat's bats were going to come alive they reverted back to normal. They've scored only 9 runs in 4 games on their current West Coast swing, losing all 4 by a combined 16-9. Odalis Perez has pitched well against his former team in the past but I will look for the Dodger offense to be able to out-score the weak-hitting Nats by at least 2. Lowe has only given up 2 runs on 7 hits over 14.2 innings in his last 2 home starts.

Colorado +110 @ Cincinnati - (De La Rosa 4-5, 6.71 vs Bailey 0-3, 6.29) - The Reds have lost in all 5 of Homer Bailey's starts this year. He has given up 8 HR's in just 24 innings, an average of around 1 per every 3 innings, and has also issued an average of 1 walk every 2 innings. The combination of HR's and walks can get you mucho trouble. The Rockies are 7-1 in their last 8 games, but have not fared as well on the road lately, although they did beat the Reds yesterday. But I'll count on Bailey's trend to continue and the Rockies bats to stay hot.

Pirates +102 vs San Diego - (Van Benschoten 1-2, 8.27 vs Banks 2-4, 3.51) - Van Benschoten's ERA is a little scary, but the Pirates have won in 3 of his last 4 starts. In contrast, the Padres have only won in 1 of Bank's last 7 starts and are a pathetic 16-35 on the road this year. They certainly don't deserve to be favorites. The Padres have won 2 in a row on the road only twice all year, so I'll look for them to continue that trend.

[dragon1952]

4-1 for Saturday

Sunday July 27

Minnesota -115 @ Cleveland - (Blackburn 7-6, 3.83 vs Sowers 1-5, 7.33) I usually get suckered in on these that look like locks but can't see Cleveland winning here.
Braves +120 @ Philadelphia - (Campillo 5-4, 2.83 vs Blanton 0-0, 7.50) Blanton was 5-12, 4.96 with the A's and got rocked in his first start as a Phillie giving up 5 runs on 8 hits including 2 dingers in 6 innings of work. The OV 9.5 runs at EVEN odds looks really good here.
Cincinnati +110 vs Colorado - (Fogg 2-2, 7.09 vs Jiminez 6-9, 3.98) - Most of the damage to Fogg's ERA came early in the season in a 2 inning stint vs the Cubs where he gave up 9 runs in 2 innings. In his last 3 starts he's given up just 5 runs on 15 hits over 17.1 innings. Jiminez has been solid in going 5-2 over his last 7 starts and giving up just 8 runs total over his last 5 starts. But I just can't see the Reds getting swept here as that has only happened once this year.

[woodee12]

I was on the Reds too. Colorado spanked them pretty well.

I like the Angels +145 at Boston tonight as probably my only side play. Dice-K is on the mound vs. weaver but I see a bit of a Yankee hangover with Boston agains the best team in the west. I will take LAA at that price anyday!

Lets keep grinding it out. I had a profitable week last week and look to do the same again this week. Slow but sure!

[dragon1952]

Recap of Sunday - Won with the Twins, lost with the Reds and got screwed out of my pitching match-up in the Braves/Phillies game due to a weather delay. Hit with the OV 9.5 lean in that game though.

Monday July 28
straight bets
Dodgers RL -1.5 +110 vs Giants - (Kuroda 5-7, 3.98 vs Correia 1-5, 5.71) The Giants have only won twice in Correia's 11 starts this year. Kuroda has pitched much better at home this year with a 3-0 record with 5 no-decisions. Over his last 6 home starts he's only given up 8 runs total over 41.5 innings for a 1.73 ERA.

Detroit -109 @ Cleveland - (Rogers 8-6, 4.48 vs Byrd 4-10, 5.28) - The Indians will be on my go-against list for the time being as they have thown in the towel with their recent trades of C.C. Sabathia and Casey Blake. Cleveland has lost 4 of their last 5. Detroit has won 5 of their last 7. Cleveland has only won in 5 of Byrd's 19 starts this year.

2-team parlay #1
Rockies -107 @ Pittsburgh - (De Los Santos NR vs Snell 3-8, 6.10) Rockies calling up De Los Santos from Triple A, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2000. Can't be a heck of a lot worse than Snell. The Pirates just dropped 3 in a row at home to the pathetic Padres. You wonder if the trade of popular Xavier Nady had anything to with that. Meanwhile, the Rockies have won 9 of their last 10 and have scored a whopping 76 runs during that streak.
St Louis -113 @ Atlanta - (Looper 9-8, 4.49 vs Morton 2-3, 6.00) Charlie Morton stepping in for the injured Tim Hudson. Braves missing 2 of their top 3 offensive threats in Chipper Jones and Brian McCann. Will take a shot on the slumping Cards vs a team missing about a 3rd of their offensive production.


2-team parlay #2
Texas -111 vs Seattle - (Feldman 4-3, 4.80 vs Hernandez 7-6, 2.95) - Hank Blalock is finally back in the already formidable Ranger line-up. Rangers have beat Hernandez twice this year already. Seattle won for the first time in 8 games yesterday and are only 19-33 on the road. Feldman is 3-0 with 3 no-decisions over his last 6 starts.
Milwaukee -162 vs Cubs - (Sabathia 4-0, 1.36 vs Lilly 10-6, 4.49) Sabathia has been sensational for the Brewers going 4-0 since his acquisition. His last 3 starts have been complete game outings in which he has only given up 3 runs on 15 hits with 26 strike outs over the 27 inning period. He is 7-0 over his last 8 starts and has only given up 9 runs total over those 63 innings with 67 strike outs, and has lowered his ERA from 4.81 to 1.36.

[woodee12]

Like your Tigers and Cards play.

Adding them to my plays.

Also adding:

Mil/Chi UNDER 7.5

Tor/TB UNDER 8

Twins -112 over Sox

[dragon1952]

Recap of Monday-
Decent day for woodie yesterday.....ugly day for me. All I can say is....

But I will not be deterred because!......well, because I don't have anything better to do.
Tuesday - July 29
straight bet
Cubs +114 @ Milwaukee - (Zambrano 11-4, 2.96 vs Sheets 10-3, 2.87) Great pitching match-up. Zambrano has allowed only 1 run on 10 hits in 2 starts vs the Brewers over a 13 inning stretch. Sheets also has 2 starts vs the Cubs and has only given up 3 runs on 5 hits over 11.1 innings. All of those meetings were early in the season however. The Brewers have cooled off a bit after their torrid hot streak going 1-3 over their last 4 games. The Cubs have gone 4-2 since Alfonso Soriano's return to the lineup after a lengthy absence. It looks like he is getting his swing back already as he has gone 5 for 9 with 2 HR's , 4 RBI and 5 runs scored over the last 2 games, both wins for the Cubs. The Cubs may be ready to take off again with Soriano back and Harden in the fold now.
2-team parlay #1
Dodgers -123 vs Giants - (Johnson 0-0, 2.57 vs Cain 6-8, 3.82) - The Dodgers pounded Cain pretty good earlier this month in S.F. scoring 5 runs on 8 hits in 6 innings. Cain has never earned a W vs the Dodgers at 0-4, 5.30 lifetime over 7 starts. The Giants have beat LA twice in a row only 2 times in the last 44 meetings. Jason Johnson has only had 2 relief appearances this year giving up 2 runs on 5 hits over 7 innings. Leaning towards the OV 7.5 at +105 here as I think both starters give up a few.
Mets -135 @ Florida - (Perez 6-6, 4.15 vs Olsen 6-5, 4.07) - Perez has been fantastic over his last 5 starts where he has only given up 5 runs total on 21 hits with 39 strike outs over 33.2 innings. In contrast, Olsen has given up 21 earned runs over the same number of starts on 35 hits, including 8 HR's, over only 31 innings. The Mets are 4-0 vs the Marlins this year when they start a left-hander (Perez twice and Santana twice). Florida's team BA drops from .263 to .223 facing lefties.
2-team parlay #2
Rockies -130 @ Pittsburgh - (Rusch 4-3, 5.74 vs Herrera 1-1, 9.75) - Rusch is 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA over his last 3 starts. Colorado is 9-2 in their last 11 games. Herrera only lasted 6 innings total in his first 2 starts giving up a whopping 13 runs on 19 hits. That was until the Padres made him look like Cy Young in his 3rd start where he went 6 innings giving up no runs on 6 hits for the win. The Padres do that quite often. Unfortunately for Herrera, one of those first 2 starts was vs the Rockies who blasted him out of the game after only 1.2 innings, torching him for 7 quick runs on 8 hits.
Philadelphia RL -1.5 -105 @ Washington - (Myers 3-9, 5.82 vs Balester 1-2, 5.75) Scary giving up a run and a half with Myers pitching but the Nats getting shut down by some pretty mediocre pitchers (Barry Zito, Kevin Correia). If the Phillies can't out score this team by 2 I'll eat my hat.

Who's hot -
1 Anaheim Angels - Have won 10 of last 12 and coming off of away win vs Boston ace Matsuzaka.
2 Colorado Rockies - Have won 9 of last 11 games and have scored 80 runs over that span.
3 Milwaukee Brewers - Have won 6 of last 7
4 Minnesota Twins - Cooled off a bit then have won 3 in a row outscoring opponents 22-6.
5 San Diego Padres - Have won 4 in a row scoring 26 runs in those games.

Who's cold -
1 Washington Nationals - Have lost 6 in a row in scoring only 9 runs total and getting shut out 3 times.
2 Oakland A's - Have only won 2 games in their last 12 games and have been held to 3 runs or less in 8 of those games.
3 Cincinnati Reds - Have lost 4 in a row in scoring only 7 runs total, and have lost 6 of their last 8.
4 Seattle Mariners - Have finally won 2 in a row but are only 5-13 over their last 18 games and have been held to 3 runs or less in 10 of those and 2 runs or less in 7.

[woodee12]

passed on tuesday-

Wednesday

Yanks/Red Sox Parlay

Under 8.5 Philly/Washington

Under 8 KC/oak

maybe more later.