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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    1,253

    Dingers NFL Picks Week 1

    Developed my own system about 5 years ago. I tweak it every year looking for a solid formula. System involves Strength of Schedule, points, Off/Def yardage, mistakes and so on.

    Last 4 years
    Top Pick: 36-28 (56%)
    Big Five: 173-157 (52%)
    Money: +$132

    I don't make my own picks and let the system come-up with its own number.
    Compare to the Vegas line and look for differences.
    Here's what it likes in week 1.

    Oak +3 4 Stars (Top pick)
    Cle +4 3 Stars
    Atl +3 2 Stars
    Sea 0 2 Stars
    KC +16.5 1 Star

  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Posts
    70
    Why do you like Oakland so much ? Looks like your first week will hang on the outcome of the Oakland/Denver game.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    335
    Even though JaMarcus Russell from Oakland is new don't count him out yet. I mean he was #1 draft pick...
    Also McFadden was awesome playing at Arkansas. Should be fun watching.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    1,253
    I have zero say in picking the Raiders...just a system built on crunching numbers in different stats. I look for big discrepancies in my line and Las vegas line. A quick look back at last year the Raiders played a strong schedule and held its own, while Dever played a softer schedule and struggled.

    I think the Raider Defense will be game difference.

    Looking back at last years Super Bowl...my system liked the Giants 4* stars last year and posted my pick on Bettors world.

    The problem with my system its based alot on 2007 stats and takes about week 5 to start hitting its stride.

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