Betting against movements

[BigD59]

I did a little research on the outcomes of betting against line movements this football season. The season is still quite young, but thought this might be interesting to some of you. For those unfamiliar with betting against the line movement, here is an example. Team A opens as -3 vs. Team B. 1 Hr prior to kickoff Team A is now -4.5 vs. Team B. Betting against the line movement would cause you to play on Team B who is now receiving 4' instead of 3.

Listed below is the record of betting against the movement for both NCAA and NFL. The opening and ending lines were taking from www.scoresandodds.com. Games with no movement we're not included.

Bet against 1/2 pt movement
NCAA 9-9 50%
NFL 2-1 66%

Bet against 1 pt movement
NCAA 6-11 35%
NFL 1-2 33%

Bet against 1' pt movement
NCAA 1-11 9%
NFL 0-1 0%

Bet against 2 pt movement
NCAA 1-8 11%
NFL 2-2 50%

Bet against 2' pt movement
NCAA 2-5 29%
NFL 0-0

Bet against 3 pt movement
NCAA 1-0 100%
NFL 0-1 0%

Bet against 3' pt movement
NCAA 1-1 50%
NFL 0-0

Bet against 4 or more pt movement
NCAA 1-2 33%
NFL 0-0

NCAA Lines with No Movement
Favorites 9-4 69%

NFL Lines with No Movement
Favorites 3-1 75%


After digging into to the information presented above it appears the most profitibable games to bet (AT THIS POINT) are the following:

Bet NCAA games with the movement changes ranging from 1-2' pts (78%)

NCAA Favorites with no line movement (69%)

NFL Favorites with no line movement (75%)

Now this information is based on a very small percentage of games so it is potentially skewed somewhat. I think it'll be interesting, however, to follow this throughout the season. Good Luck!

[Bettorsworld]

There's an art to line move study........there are many ways to break down the data and use it to your advantage.

The key is to know which books to watch, especially early in the week. There are a couple of books where the action is heavily slanted with mostly sharp action while yet others it's slanted the other way.....a little half point move on Sunday night at a sharp book can be very meaningful.

Mix in all the various betting percentages that are publicly available and you now have a recipe for sucess without ever knowing a single players name or stat.

Nice post BigD - Good stuff.

[bigdogdan2]

What are a couple of good books to watch? Betcris?

[aquinof]

nice insight!

[Sportsdataguy]

Good Post.

I would like to see this information with something closer to a year's worth of information. I really think there is something to betting on the opposite site of moving lines.

[TheSkeptic]

I think this approach has some merit, but there definitely needs to be more data.

The earlier trends seem to me that you go AGAINST movements of more than say 2.5 points and go WITH movements of 1.5 or less.

Problem is, when do you lock in...right before kick off? Isn't most of the sharp money placed on the opening line?

Definitely keep these numbers updated so we can draw more informed conclusions!!

[o2manscot]

When analyzing line movements, I definitely pay more attention to those that move the "wrong way", or against the betting percentages. Seems like that is an indication of sharp money on the side against the public.

[BigD59]

Bet against 1/2 pt movement
NCAA 11-15 42%
NFL 3-2 60%

Bet against 1 pt movement
NCAA 13-16 45%
NFL 3-2 60%

Bet against 1' pt movement
NCAA 5-16 24%
NFL 1-1 50%

Bet against 2 pt movement
NCAA 2-11 15%
NFL 2-5 29%

Bet against 2' pt movement
NCAA 2-5 29%
NFL 1-1 50%

Bet against 3 pt movement
NCAA 1-0 100%
NFL 0-2 0%

Bet against 3' pt movement
NCAA 1-2 33%
NFL 0-0

Bet against 4 or more pt movement
NCAA 2-3 40%
NFL 0-0

NCAA Lines with No Movement
Favorites 13-8 62%

NFL Lines with No Movement
Favorites 5-1 83%



These are the numbers through 3 NCAA weeks and 2 NFL weeks.

Bet WITH the NCAA line movements from 1'-2' pts (32-9, 78%)

Bet WITH the NFL line movement of 2 pts (5-2, 71%)

Bet NCAA favorite with no line change (13-8, 62%

Bet NFL Favorites with no line change (5-1, 83%)



Still not of ton of games played yet to support this, but it's something interesting to follow and take note of.

[BigD59]

Bet against 1/2 pt movement
NCAA 11-15 42%
NFL 3-2 60%

Bet against 1 pt movement
NCAA 13-16 45%
NFL 3-2 60%

Bet against 1' pt movement
NCAA 5-16 24%
NFL 1-1 50%

Bet against 2 pt movement
NCAA 2-11 15%
NFL 2-5 29%

Bet against 2' pt movement
NCAA 2-5 29%
NFL 1-1 50%

Bet against 3 pt movement
NCAA 1-0 100%
NFL 0-2 0%

Bet against 3' pt movement
NCAA 1-2 33%
NFL 0-0

Bet against 4 or more pt movement
NCAA 2-3 40%
NFL 0-0

NCAA Lines with No Movement
Favorites 13-8 62%

NFL Lines with No Movement
Favorites 5-1 83%



These are the numbers through 3 NCAA weeks and 2 NFL weeks.

Bet WITH the NCAA line movements from 1'-2' pts (32-9, 78%)

Bet WITH the NFL line movement of 2 pts (5-2, 71%)

Bet NCAA favorite with no line change (13-8, 62%

Bet NFL Favorites with no line change (5-1, 83%)



Still not a ton of games played yet to support this, but it's something interesting to follow and take note of.

[BigD59]

Listed below is the record of betting against the movement for both NCAA and NFL. The opening and ending lines were taking from www.scoresandodds.com. Through 4 weeks of college action and 3 weeks of NFL.


Bet against 1/2 pt movement
NCAA 15-23 39%
NFL 3-4 43%

Bet against 1 pt movement
NCAA 16-19 46%
NFL 5-2 71%

Bet against 1' pt movement
NCAA 6-20 23%
NFL 3-2 60%

Bet against 2 pt movement
NCAA 4-14 29%
NFL 2-6 25%

Bet against 2' pt movement
NCAA 7-5 58%
NFL 1-2 33%

Bet against 3 pt movement
NCAA 2-1 66%
NFL 0-2 0%

Bet against 3' pt movement
NCAA 2-3 40%
NFL 0-0

Bet against 4 or more pt movement
NCAA 2-3 40%
NFL 0-0

NCAA Lines with No Movement
Favorites 13-8 62%

NFL Lines with No Movement
Favorites 5-1 83%