MLB Playoffs

[woodee12]

I like the Dodgers here as a dog, and the under is tempting but feel like it is one of those where it could go over late when it gets to the bullpens. Lidge had LA baffled but before him, they could score some runs.

Odds are too high for me but saw an UNDER 3.5 (-150) in the first 4.5 innings of play.

I think it will be a low-scoring win for the Dodgers.

Billingsly got rocked at Philly but is far better at home than on the road.

LA +109 is my play

with a lean towards the under at this point but no play yet for me on it.

[woodee12]

Going to add another exotic bet to the mix tonight--

Kemp is going to be hitting behind Manny tonight--

Kemp -120 over Jason Werth...Most Total bases.

[dragon1952]

Man, I can't believe the Dodgers will go down without at least swinging. I'm going to go with the over. In the 12 games between these teams, one team has scored at least 5 runs in 9 of them. 7 of the 12 have totaled 9 runs or more, and 2 more have landed right on 7. Ryan Howard is overdue for a blast, and that middle of the Phillie lineup is scarier. As much as I'd like to see the Dodgers, I'm going Phillies and over.

[jpehl]

dragon I know the game started but I actually took the over as well. No side but was leaning towards the phillies

[woodee12]

Well, I guess I had to lose one after a decent run.

I did hit the Kemp play over Werth and had the undr in another small parlay with a hockey total.

So basically broke even on the day with a small profit.

Do you lay the price with the Red Sox toinight? Thats the question! At -153 as I type which is pretty steep against a hot TB team.

Dice-K--I think Boston wins but I don't think I want to pay that much in case they don't.

What do you guys think. Value is on the Rays, but logic is on the Sox

[jpehl]

Im thinking about sticking with the hot hand. Books have continued to give TB great value throughout the playoffs. It is possible that kazmir does give up 6-7 runs while dice k gives 2-3. Maybe the play is on the over. I dont know right now. Sorry just thinking out loud. Anyone else?

[woodee12]

I have to roll with the Red Sox here after I looked and thought about it a bit more.


Conspiracy theory is that MLB would love to have this series go 7 and the rays to win it in 7, so that the stroyline is there. I think they would like to drag this series on for a few more days. Thats the conspiracy theorist in me saying 'what if' there is behinds the scenes work going on with the networks.

(Stupid thought and I can't believe I just wrote that) B ut anyway boston has that going for them...

Besides that, I see Dice_k coming out dominant tonight. Shuts down the rays bats and holds them to 1-2 runs and Ortiz wakes up tonight to help bostong's offese.

My play is Boston -150.

[dragon1952]

Some ramblings about the game.
Boston has done real well vs Kazmir. They had a .324 BA against him over 4 starts totaling 18 innings in the regular season. He gave up 19 runs on 24 hits, including 6 dingers, and as many walks as SO's (14-14). 3 of those starts happened to be against Matsuzaka who, during the regular season, held TB to a .228 BA and gave up just 5 runs over 15 innings on 13 hits with 17 SO's, 11 walks and just 1 HR, but Boston actually lost 2 of those games. For some reason, they yanked Matsuzaka after exactly 5 innings in all 3 of those starts. In the first game he left after 5 with a 4-1 lead and the bullpen blew it for him by giving up 6 in a 7-6 loss. In the second game he left after the 5th down 3-2, got off the hook when Boston scored 2 in the 8th before Papelbon blew the save in the 9th. In the 3rd game he left after the 5th with a 12-1 lead in an eventual 12-5 win. In the post-season Matsuzaka went 7 against TB and didn't give up a single run on a 4 hitter. In the 3 matchups vs Kazmir, the run totals were 13, 9 and 18, with Boston scoring 23 and TB scoring 17. But the Red Sox bullpen gave up 12 of those runs. When the Red Sox bullpen came into play it looked like an easy over. But you know they aren't going to use that strategy here facing elimination. They can use Beckett or Lester if they have to. I like the Red Sox to score some runs for sure, but not sure I would feel real good about the over unless they can score around 7 themselves. I really reached on the over last night because it was a small bet, but I really liked the Phillies. Kind of the same situation tonight. I'm with woodie, I really like the Red Sox.

[jpehl]

You guys have been sharper than me and my gut tells me TB but then again Kazmir is questionable. Im just not going to play but the gut says TB. Screw it I like action and really think I will lose. small play on TB +140. Good luck

[jpehl]

Im a little baffled, I never quit watching a game. I turned it off at the top of the seventh. Checked my account just a few minutes ago and bam lost. Oh well nice call guys. Man havent seen the highlights yet but that loss can hurt.
jpehl

[dragon1952]

I don't believe it....what the hell happened? I quit watching in the top of the 7th also and I just now saw that they came back and won. Holy shit! Tough loss man....sorry.

[woodee12]

If I ever bitch about a bad beat, remind me of that game--I can't believe it!

Wow--I was at a bar and bet my buddy a buck when they were down 5-0 that the Sox would come back at 20 to 1...He was not too happy to pay me that 20!

Crazy! I hope TB comes back and goes to the series but that was a nice win. I may be done for this series from the wagering standpoint!

[jpehl]

Im more mad that I missed it than losing the bet. The bet was small but damn.
jpehl

[jpehl]

Man really wanted to take TB today but not much value there. Any ideas guys

[dragon1952]

I think TB puts them away today. The Rays bats have been hot. Maybe -1.5 at +140 if you really want TB? They jumped all over Beckett last time.