thoughts & views on Saints / Vikings MNF

[cowboyfan2]

lets start an open thread on tonight's game - thoughts views etc....

Saints -3 (-110) vs Vikings

i know i'm square but i like the home team here on MNF...feel the spread is reasonable and i think New Orleans will be pumped about being in the MNF spotlight....not talking like the Falcons MNF game they played post Katrina in Sept 2006 but there should be some emotion in the air tonight

i think the Vikings are a decent outfit - maybe an 8-8/9-7 team this year...good defence and good running game

just dont think that the Vikes can stop the NO passing game or play from behind...and i think they will be playing from behind....just not a good matchup here for the Vikings considering their QB situation and passing game

what do you think??? 3 points for the home team on MNF is reasonable

[juluvg]

I like the Saints in this spot. They don't depend on the run as much and with home cooking, they seem to play alot better also. Also on the over as every mnf game this year has gone over so i'm gonna ride the over train until it stops. Best of luck. Where did you get -3 -110? I see 3.5 and cost me -135 to buy down to 3.

[cowboyfan2]

i use bowmans - its still posted -3 (-110)

[dragon1952]

If you look at New Orleans ATS record as a favorite during the Brees era (2006-present) it doesn't look real encouraging.
5-11 as a home favorite
9-13 as any favorite
3-4 as a home favorite of 4 or less
However, they are 7-4 in their last 11 tries as any favorite, and they are 2-0 as a favorite this year, both at home.
Hard to tell about Minnesota as they went from Brian Johnson to Tarvaris Jackson and now to Gus Frerrotte. Going back to the start of 2006 they are 6-5-2 as any road underdog, and 3-2-2 as a road underdog of 4 or less, and they are 0-2 as a road underdog this year. It looks like the Saints are improving in the role of favorite.
Minnesota is averaging right around 18 pts per game, both at home and on the road. They are giving up more on the road with 24 to Green Bay and 30 to Tennessee.
New Orleans is averaging around 28 pts per game and have held opponents to around 18 pts per game at home.
Minnesota has had to settle for a lot of FG's...10 FG's to 6 TD's. And they have just 2 passing TD's.
Drew Brees has 8 passing TD's already, and two 3 TD games. And they have 5 rushing TD's also. Reggie Bush can score anytime he touches the ball. The Saints have the big play capability with 6 passing plays of 40 yds or more, whereas the Vikings have just 1.
The Saints OL has given Brees time to throw and have only given up only 4 sacks all year.
The Vikings got to Jake Delhomme 5 times, but only had 2 sacks against Manning, and they didn't have any against Aaron Rodgers or Kerry Collins. If Brees has time to throw he will pick them apart.

I would expect both teams to hit around their averages in this game, which would make it around 27-18, 30-20...or something similar to the Tennessee/Viking score of 30-17 last week.

[Dinger]

My system has the Saints Favored by one point. If I had to bet I would lean towards the Vikings and the 3 points

[dragon1952]

Wow...I feel sorry for Ed Hochuli's crew. They can't do shit right anymore. Sean Peyton really made a bad call on that onside kick. You're up and moving the ball with ease on a team that is offensively challenged and you are winning the field position game. Why give a team that can't move the ball the length of the field good field position and a free 3 pts? The momentum changed there a little.

[jpehl]

Dragon,
What happened with the refs, missed it was watching baseball.

[dragon1952]

Well I guess the main issue was a pretty blatant face mask on Reggie Bush that was missed. He fumbled on the play and Minnesota recovered. It should have been a 15 yd penalty and the Saints ball inside the 20. Instead Minnesota gets it and, although they don't score, the field position and momentum was greatly affected. There was a fumble by Peterson that was possibly the correct call. The refs called down by contact and the review upheld it, but it was one of those that could have gone either way. Had it been called a fumble I don't think there was enough evidence to reverse the call. It was just that, after the blown face mask call it was too close for comfort and the fans were about ready to kill someone. Hochuli looked visibly distraught though when he gave the explanation. Something like 'even though the ball had started to come out it was still in his hand' ? lol.
Bottom line though is the Saints blew chance after chance by turning the ball over. And the on side kick was a huge momentum killer if you ask me. An on side kick in the 1st Q when you're up 10-0 on a team that can't move the ball very well? Minnesota only moved the ball 4 yds in 4 plays but still had a FG try and made it. So, even with all the other crap that happened, those 3 pts were still the deciding pts in the game. And you lose field position and a shot at a Reggie Bush punt return because now they get to kick off. That was an incredibly stupid call.

[jpehl]

I remember back when Peyton was a first year head coach and he did the same thing to Dallas, attempting to kick an onside kick up by 14. Unfortunately, Dallas was not prepared and lost the ball. Thought then it was crazy and am glad to see it came back to bite him in the ass. Did anybody get a good look at Sean Peyton, did he dye his eye browls or what. Looked kind of freaky to me.
jpehl

[dragon1952]

If I had put my money on Minnesota, they would've looked like Kansas City did against Carolina on Sunday. Instead, I put my money on New Orleans and they tried to look like Kansas City At least I got my money back on the Saints -6 2nd half. But I lose my Saints wager and a parlay with Saints and the over with Ana/Bos UN. I swear....how do you get burned deep twice in a row on 3rd and forever?

[jpehl]

Can you let me know next time so I can go against you.Jk

[dragon1952]

There's gold in them thar hills buddy