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Some teams I'm looking at today. I may not take them all, but these are some I like.
TCU -15 @ UNLV - TCU 5-0 in conference play averaging 33 ppg and giving up just 6. In those 5 games they have allowed 3, 7, 7, 7 and 7 pts. UNLV 0-4 in conference play averaging 28 ppg and giving up 38.5. TCU averages 216.8 ypg rushing and UNLV gives up 229 ypg rushing and 440 ypg total. TCU gives up an avg of just 30 ypg rushing so UNLV will have to pass, which is their forte with 17 passing TD's and just 4 INT's. But TCU leads the conference in passing efficiency defense with 13 INT's and just 6 TD passes allowed. TCU also leads the conference in turnover margin, total defense and kickoff return avg, and they are 2nd in punt returns, total offense and scoring offense. TCU has won the L4 vs UNLV by 24, 15, 48 and 23.
Louisville -13 @ Syracuse - Syracuse is 0-3 in conference giving up 212 ypg rushing and 437 ypg total. They have given up 18 passing TD's and 12 rushing TD's, both tops in the conference. Louisville has balance on offense rushing and passing for almost 200 ypg each with 13 rushing TD's and 10 passing TD's. Louisville is 1st in the conference in rushing defense (75 ypg ) and 3rd in total defense. Syracuse is last in scoring offense, scoring defense, rushing defense, total defense, total offense and punt returns, and next to last in passing offense and passing efficiency. Syracuse 2-7-1 ATS their L10 home games.
Virginia -2 vs Miami - Virginia has awakened and has won their last 4 games in a row and are now leading the ACC Coastal division at 3-1. They beat Maryland 31-0, East Carolina 35-20, North Carolina 16-13 and Georgia Tech 24-17. The Cavs have beat Miami the past 2 years 48-0 and 17-7. Virginia is 2nd in the conference in passing offense, and Miami only has 3 INT's all year, the lowest in the conference.
Michigan -2 @ Purdue - Purdue was a mess of a team anyway, and now they are likely going to have to go with 3rd string QB Justin Siller. Coming in for Painter last week he was 10 of 17 for 73 yds, 0 TD's, 1 INT and 4 sacks. Purdue has lost 5 in a row and only managed 6 pts vs Minnesota last week. Purdue gives up 175 ypg rushing so I would expect Michigan to pound them with the running game and stack the box against Purdue RB Kory Sheets and dare them to pass.
Tulsa -7 @ Arkansas - Arkansas playing better of late but Tulsa coming in averaging over 600 yds of offense per game including 255 on the ground and Arkansas giving up 166 ypg rushing. And Tulsa QB David Johnson with 32 passing TD's! Tulsa averaging 55 pts per game and Arkansas giving up 32. No way Arkansas can keep up.
Tennessee +5.5 @ S. Carolina - I know the Vols suck this year, but S. Carolina no great guns either. They don't have a running game and their QB'ing is extremely inconsistent and mistake prone. Tennessee has won the last 2 meetings and 11 of the last 12 meetings SU, and the visitor is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Fulmer on the hot seat and needs a win badly.
and finally.....
Texas -3.5 @ Texas Tech - As much as I'd like to see Texas get pounded, I just don't think it will happen. Texas has had their number and they have been up to the task lately. Everybody is on the Red Raiders saying this is the best team they've had and this is their best chance. But I think this is also one of the best Longhorn teams too. Texas is 8-1 SU vs Tech the last 9 and 6-3 ATS. Tech QB Harrell does so well because he gets so much time from his OL. Watching him against Kansas it was like 4 or 5 seconds to look around before he finally took his pick of receivers, and he could have had more time to look around if he'd wanted to. Texas leads the Big 12 in sacks with 3.6 per game on average, and they are 3rd in tackles for loss with an average of 6.8 per game, so they do get into the backfield. I think Texas pulls it off and disappoints everyone.
TCU -15 @ UNLV - TCU 5-0 in conference play averaging 33 ppg and giving up just 6. In those 5 games they have allowed 3, 7, 7, 7 and 7 pts. UNLV 0-4 in conference play averaging 28 ppg and giving up 38.5. TCU averages 216.8 ypg rushing and UNLV gives up 229 ypg rushing and 440 ypg total. TCU gives up an avg of just 30 ypg rushing so UNLV will have to pass, which is their forte with 17 passing TD's and just 4 INT's. But TCU leads the conference in passing efficiency defense with 13 INT's and just 6 TD passes allowed. TCU also leads the conference in turnover margin, total defense and kickoff return avg, and they are 2nd in punt returns, total offense and scoring offense. TCU has won the L4 vs UNLV by 24, 15, 48 and 23.
Louisville -13 @ Syracuse - Syracuse is 0-3 in conference giving up 212 ypg rushing and 437 ypg total. They have given up 18 passing TD's and 12 rushing TD's, both tops in the conference. Louisville has balance on offense rushing and passing for almost 200 ypg each with 13 rushing TD's and 10 passing TD's. Louisville is 1st in the conference in rushing defense (75 ypg ) and 3rd in total defense. Syracuse is last in scoring offense, scoring defense, rushing defense, total defense, total offense and punt returns, and next to last in passing offense and passing efficiency. Syracuse 2-7-1 ATS their L10 home games.
Virginia -2 vs Miami - Virginia has awakened and has won their last 4 games in a row and are now leading the ACC Coastal division at 3-1. They beat Maryland 31-0, East Carolina 35-20, North Carolina 16-13 and Georgia Tech 24-17. The Cavs have beat Miami the past 2 years 48-0 and 17-7. Virginia is 2nd in the conference in passing offense, and Miami only has 3 INT's all year, the lowest in the conference.
Michigan -2 @ Purdue - Purdue was a mess of a team anyway, and now they are likely going to have to go with 3rd string QB Justin Siller. Coming in for Painter last week he was 10 of 17 for 73 yds, 0 TD's, 1 INT and 4 sacks. Purdue has lost 5 in a row and only managed 6 pts vs Minnesota last week. Purdue gives up 175 ypg rushing so I would expect Michigan to pound them with the running game and stack the box against Purdue RB Kory Sheets and dare them to pass.
Tulsa -7 @ Arkansas - Arkansas playing better of late but Tulsa coming in averaging over 600 yds of offense per game including 255 on the ground and Arkansas giving up 166 ypg rushing. And Tulsa QB David Johnson with 32 passing TD's! Tulsa averaging 55 pts per game and Arkansas giving up 32. No way Arkansas can keep up.
Tennessee +5.5 @ S. Carolina - I know the Vols suck this year, but S. Carolina no great guns either. They don't have a running game and their QB'ing is extremely inconsistent and mistake prone. Tennessee has won the last 2 meetings and 11 of the last 12 meetings SU, and the visitor is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Fulmer on the hot seat and needs a win badly.
and finally.....
Texas -3.5 @ Texas Tech - As much as I'd like to see Texas get pounded, I just don't think it will happen. Texas has had their number and they have been up to the task lately. Everybody is on the Red Raiders saying this is the best team they've had and this is their best chance. But I think this is also one of the best Longhorn teams too. Texas is 8-1 SU vs Tech the last 9 and 6-3 ATS. Tech QB Harrell does so well because he gets so much time from his OL. Watching him against Kansas it was like 4 or 5 seconds to look around before he finally took his pick of receivers, and he could have had more time to look around if he'd wanted to. Texas leads the Big 12 in sacks with 3.6 per game on average, and they are 3rd in tackles for loss with an average of 6.8 per game, so they do get into the backfield. I think Texas pulls it off and disappoints everyone.
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