SD/PITT ENDING

[Boone Moone]

That's exactly what they do 'Strides.............For us, it's a helluva nice handicapping angle...........You've heard me referring to myself as a "line-reader" for the past 5 years here, and that's why I never offer write-ups with my picks........because most average bettors probably wouldn't buy into my logic.........but just one example, last weekend's Chicago/Green Bay game "total" kept going down even though the higher percentage of money kept coming in on the "Over" (about 63%-64% -- that's about a 2-1 ratio of bettors playing this game going with the over)............Opened at about 44-44.5, and steadily crept as low as 42 at one point and finally ended up going out at 43 by game time -- despite the fact that more money was being bet on the "Over"..........Trapping indeed.........Keep an eye out for this.

No strategy or system is foolproof of course, but sometimes you can make a pretty nice buck if you can see through the smoke..........Good Luck.

[Bettorsworld]

You have to remember something. Those percentages you see, are not money bet. They are number of bets. Big difference.

You can have 70% of the action one way on a game as far as the number of bets, yet still have a balced book based on money wagered.

The $50 and $100 small players may come in and play the over in a game (they always do) while a few sharps and larger players play the under. Hence, the line move to the under while the percentages say over.

Also remember, bookmakers know their clients. They can tell a square from a sharp after one bet. Maybe two. Many books deal two sets of lines or more. There are plenty of stone cold squares that many books would let bet 10 dimes on a game without moving the number at all......yet there are plenty of sharps that would be limited to a dime on the same game AND the book would move the number.

Point being, there is no such thing as an intentionally set trap in bookmaking. Especialy not an NFL game.

The NFL is the most heavily bet sport out there. There is absolutely no reason to attmpt to "lure" bettors to bet one side or another. Why would they when there is so much volume on the NFL they'll make money regarless of who wins.

The last time a sportsbook tried to "lure" bettors to one side of a game was the Super Bowl between the Pats and Rams. Every book in the world at the Rams -14 yet Aces Gold hung a 14.5. They attracted HUGE Pats money and consequently, hung a sign on their door after the Super Bowl stating they could not pay their clients.

The only reason there would be, to lure bettors to one side, would be if they already knew the outcome.

Let's assume for a second, that was the case. Who, exactly is in on this great big conspiracy? Is it the bean counters and corporate execs that now run all the Nevada properties? Most of whom are terrified to take a real bet these days?

Is it some group of offshore bookmakers that conspire with NFL officials?

Is it the shady street books that are rigging all these games?

Is there a secret meeting of bookmakers each week, where they all decide which games they are going to fix each week, so they know where to set their lines on Sunday Nights to lure all the unsuspecting bettors?

Who writes these marvelous scripts?

When Pittsburgh picked off that pass in the final minutes, did the refs all get together and say, shit, that wasn't in the script, now what do we do?

"Ah, screw it, we know we need to make the Chargers cover, so we'll just take away the touchdown and then we'll come out after the game and tell everyone we blew the call. Whoops."

What never gets brought up are the bad calls and freak endings that cost bookmakers money, and there are just as many of them as there are the other way. Who's fixing in that case? The players?

When you take into considertion all the different plays that make up an NFL game, and the number of people that would be required to be "in on the fix" you realize just how unlikely that is.

Bookmakers are the last ones that would want or need a fixed outcome. Any established book with volume will grind out a profit.

The ones who might be interested in an attempted fix, would be individual bettors or groups of bettors.

Is it possible that a referee, th emost likely weak spot in the chain, could attempt to fix a game? Yes. I'll give you that. Just look what happened in the NBA.

Have there been attempts by INDIVIDUALS or a group of individuals, to fix a game or group of games? Sure, it's happened in college football and hoops more than once in the last decade alone.

But the bookmakers? What bookmakers? All of them? Some of them? One of them? Who exactly is "THEY" ???

Sorry - had to put my 2 cents in here.

[widestrides]

Jeff,

But why didn't the line move up? The 65-35% on the Steelers was actual money not number of bets. And the line went down!


I agree that there was and can be no big conspiracy. Too hard and complicated to fix an NFL game. But if the books found themselves with too much $ on the Steelers, could someone threaten or pay off someone, to at least get an edge if not a certain outcome?

[RAW]

Very interesting....it makes me wish I knew some "sharps" to put on my friends list.

[Boone Moone]

99 times out of a hundred, I agree with you Jeff after you illustrate the cold facts fo my sometimes-blind-ass...........But I just can't on this one, because history tells me different...........This is another one of those issues that could turn into an endless thread with posts from many different points of view..........but this tampering with the outcome of games has taken place many times before, and that was when the amount of money involved was a mere pittance of what it is today.

About the biggest crock of shit I've ever heard is when a Vegas bookmaker takes to the airwaves or the newspaper or whatever and states the old: "Well we just try to put up a number to get equal play on both sides because we make money off the "juice" anyway"................Horseshit.................If that were the case, then why is it after every big game (like Sunday's), or the Super Bowl or World Series or whatever, there's always an article or report about how Vegas cleaned up on the big game............Who's being naive now?........Do they think the gamblers are that stupid?.............Vegas isn't what it is because they've been breaking even all these years, trust me.

You kind of answered your own question Jeff as to how a game could possibly be fixed in this day and age, with so many people involved and what not -- when you referred to the NBA scandal..............Just ask former NBA ref Tim Donaghy who he was in contact with............It just takes a simple phone call, that's all.

Last Point: Why are only certain calls reviewable ?...........And it seems like the most important ones aren't.............Or should I ask Ed Hochuli ?...............How many times during a game do you hear the TV or Radio announcer say "Well it all depends on the where they spot the ball".............and different umpires strike zones and so on..................Like it or not, admit it or don't...........they truly control the outcome of the games.............It's that simple............and that's coming from a guy who was on "the right side of the fix" on Sunday to boot...............Good Luck.

[Bettorsworld]

Widestrides question first - consider the source. The quote in the article linked in this thread is from a guy who runs a website similar to bettorsworld. He sells picks. He's speaking in general terms with those figures.

But even if those numbers were correct, it's not as big of a deal as you may think. The bookmakers balancing their books, is somewhat of a fallacy. Sure, that is the goal, to balance the books. But it rarely happens. Most times, bookmakers are left with decisions on all of their games. In otherwords, they need one side or another to win or lose on a particular game.

Look at it like this. Let's say you have a small book. You had 10k bet total on the pit sd game. you had 6500 bet on the steelers and 3500 on sd.

pit wins and covers, you pay out 6500 and take in 3850 from sd backers for a loss of -2650

sd wins and covers you collect 7150 from pit backers and pay out 3500 to sd backers for a profit of 3650.

So the bookmaker here is risking 2650 to win 3650 on the sd/pit game. Not a bad deal considering all of you bettors are laying -110 to win 100 eh?

Books have those decisions week in and week out. It's impossible to lose long term with those odds...that's how they profit....not from balanced books.

So, the books won a decision on this one game, as a result of that blown call. Again, the figure of 100 million quoted, was "worldwide". Are the UK books in on this conspiracy?

What about the bookmakers in San Diego that were likely overloaded with Charger money? Do they not get to be on this big scheme? Why are they left out?

How come when someone loses on a bad call, the game is fixed. Yet, when someone wins on a bad call, it's because they are a genius?

As for the refs, yeah, that can happen. A bad seed. The ref got mixed up with some old high school buddies, one of which booked offshore for a few years at a popular book......these guys are far from even capable of pulling of a monster conspiracy along the lines you are talking.

A few individuals scheming to fix some games here and there is a far cry from the conspiracy you are talking about which could only be described as EPIC.

There's a saying. "3 can keep a secret if two are dead".

In this case, the number of people that would have to be in on this would be in the hundreds, yet somehow they all manage to keep this big secret hush hush and continue to "trick" the bettors every week.

It's really kind of comical.

And my question was never answered?

Who is "they".

Who is in on it?

How do "they" choose which games they are going to fix each week?

Are they all fixed?

What about the decisions that go against the books?

What about the offshore books, that have gone out of business and stiffed clients? Were they not able to get in on the "fix"

If I opened an offshore book tomorrow, could I somehow join the fix club?


What about the oddsmaking firms such as Las Vegas Sports Consultants that provide initial send out numbers to the books. Are they in on it to?

How many people are involved in setting these trap lines? Is there one mastermind, or is it a group effort? Do they set the line to be off just enough so as not to be too obvious?

Where was everyone BEFORE the game started suggesting that something was fishy with the steelers line?

Are the players in on it too?? Do they make field goals hit the cross bars and drop passes on purpose? Or is all this fixing only at the referee level?

How do they fix all these other games every week? The Steeler game is being mentioned because of the crazy ending, but I assume these fixes are a weekly occurrence. To think how good these fixers are at pulling this off each week that no one ever cries foul unless something happens like in the steeler game.

They fix the world series too? Hmm.

The bottom line is, sure, there can be some bad apples and shady characters that attempt to pull this stuff off at times. A bad apple ref with shady friends. A 20 year old kid in college ball player that will never play pro, looking to make a score, etc. That can and will happen.

But to think there is some widescale fixing conspiracy going on in the NFL is just plain nonsense.

[Bettorsworld]

One footnote -

Of course Vegas wasn't built on the house breaking even. Nor was it built on sportsbook revenue.

Most corporate bean counters in the game today would rather not even bother with having sportsbooks. The amount of money they make off the books is miniscule when compared to the money made from their table games and slots.

As long as people are willing to pony up to slot machines, craps tables and roulette wheels, all of which can't be beaten without cheating, vegas and the "house" will prosper.

Basically, casino games are legally fixed to favor the house. With all the guaranteed gazillions they earn from that, why bother to sceheme and pull off these giant conspiracies for a few peanuts?

[Boone Moone]

OK ...............I'm sold..............Now I can go back to bettin' with both hands again !!!........Yessssss !!!!!!!!!

[hart attack]

After seeing all the information on these coincidences I am convinced that THIS particular game was indeed "tampered" with to manipulate the point spread.

I find it very hard to believe that an organization like the NFL could allow such a horrendous error to happen naturally. I am not claiming every game is being messed with, but this one was.

It wouldnt take more than a single official to affect the outcome of a game. You dont need 100s of people to do it. IF this game was not fixed, then someone MUST be fired as such total incompetence cant possibly be tolerated. There can be NO excuse for what was allowed to happen. This was not a "bad or missed call". This was a blatant changing of the events of the game.

Even Stevie wonder could see that.

[jpehl]

I agree but ultimately the only people who were affected were gamblers. We have no leverage, you have to think if you guys are making such a stink about the situation someone in the NFL has waived a red flag and said something. I agree 100% the refs have been absolutely horrendous this year. Just throwing an idea out there but maybe the NFL has placed so many ticky tacky rule changes in the last year or two that the refs are over whelmed. I dont know it sucks.

[Boone Moone]

The last two posts pretty much sum up the sentiments of the entire forum, as far as I'm concerned...........not much more to add to that.

[dragon1952]

I agree but ultimately the only people who were affected were gamblers. We have no leverage, you have to think if you guys are making such a stink about the situation someone in the NFL has waived a red flag and said something. I agree 100% the refs have been absolutely horrendous this year. Just throwing an idea out there but maybe the NFL has placed so many ticky tacky rule changes in the last year or two that the refs are over whelmed. I dont know it sucks.

I have been wanting to go on a rant about this for some time. Thanks for the opening

I think the problem with football is that there are way too many penalties in the first place, period. They make it too difficult to comply. And most of them are too subjective, and also based too much on what officials think they saw.
We've all seen penalties called, that on replays show they never really occurred....and vice versa. What is a penalty to one official may not be to another, and what looks like a penalty may not really be one. I think another problem is that the officials don't take into consideration the speed of the game. Way too many late hits are unavoidable. The defensive player has to commit to a move towards the player with the ball at some time. You can't take it back once you've committed yourself. Also, even though you see the QB's arm moving forward, how do you know for sure that he isn't faking a throw? Bottom line, too many penalties period, penalties that are too subjective hence not accurately distributed, ticky tack penalties where you barely touch a QB or someone going out of bounds, and lots of penalties called for hits that are 100% clean. And they are all playing a large part in the outcomes of the game. That's what I like about baseball. very rarely is there a bum call that decides a game. In the NFL, and probably basketball, penalties are what decide the outcome of games in many, if not most cases.
Here are some of the worst.
1) Illegal block in the back on KO's and punt returns (BTW, is there such thing as a 'legal' block in the back?). One of the most exciting plays in football, the run back, is way to often negated because somebody got shoved in the back. The problem is, many times it is so far away from the runner that it wouldn't have affected the play anyway. What I'd like to see is, if it is so far away from the play that it wouldn't have affected the outcome, then penalize the returning team maybe 5 yds from the end of the play. Don't bring it all way back! Which in many cases is half the distance to the goal line. That's way too severe, and potentially a game deciding penalty for something that wouldn't have mattered anyway. And if it happened close to the play where the player pushed could have potentially made the tackle, place the ball at the spot of the foul. You've already taken away a nice return, why the additional backwards yardage?
2) Personal fouls - A ridiculous penalty of 15 yds that often negates TD's or big plays when it's called on the offense, and is 15 yds and an automatic 1st down when called on the defense. In the first place, many of these are late hits on the QB or hits out of bounds, that were borderline at best, or a lineman grabs a face mask away from the play. And it's basically a safety issue. And even if they are blatant, the penalty is too great and game changing. Games shouldn't be decided because someone was 'naughty'. An example: It's late in the 4th Q and you are up by either less than a FG or less than a TD. Your defense stops the other team at the 50 on 3rd down forcing a punt and possibly sealing the win. But wait, late hit on the QB. You got there just as he let go, and the only reason he let go was because you were about to plow him under, the pass was just tossed away in desperation or wasn't anywhere near being completed, you make a fantastic play to hold them of 3rd down, and all of a sudden it's on the 35 yd line and a 1st down? So in many cases you end up losing a game that's been played with blood, sweat and tears for 60 freakin' minutes because of something that didn't even affect the play? Because in the judgment of an official someone was naughty?

In baseball, that would be like if a pitch gets away from the pitcher and hit's the batter or comes close to his head, so you get flagged for a personal foul and the team that's up gets to put 2 guys in scoring position and the count on the batter gets reset to 0-0. Or you hit one in the gap with the bases loaded and slide into 2nd base with your cleats up and knock the 2nd baseman on his ass, and they throw a flag and make everyone go back to their base and you do the play over.
In the first place, 15 yds is too big of a penalty for anything...it's practically 1/6 th of the field! And then to add a 1st down on top of it? That's crazy. I think that no penalty should be greater than 10 yds, and they should do away with 'automatic' 1st downs awarded because of penalties. Getting a new set of downs is an enormous penalty. And on top of that kind of yardage! In many cases you might as well award points. 1st downs and large chunks of yardage should be earned, not given away.
The only exception, of course, would be penalties that affected the outcome of the play. Pass interference, holding, grabbing the runners face mask, because those kinds of penalties may have prevented the yardage and 1st down anyway.
Another thing I hate is false starts and 6 men on the line of scrimmage. Big effing deal. So a guy lines up a foot behind where he was supposed to because he looked down the line wrong. And so what if you twitch. As long as you don't disrupt the play by causing someone else to jump. Many times you don't even see anyone move until you see the replay. And it certainly didn't affect the play. Why do they have to make it so hard to comply? The rules should be simpler. There are just way to many things that don't necessarily affect the play that ends up deciding the outcome.
In no other sport that I can think of, are their such enormous and game changing penalties for such bullshit. If a player commits a personal foul that doesn't actually affect the play, make him sit out a certain number of downs or something. Or tack on 5 or 10 yds, but not an automatic 1st down too.
For me it's just getting to be almost unwatchable anymore, with all the delays and penalties, and commercials and reviews and 2 minute warnings, all the crap they try to fit into the game that just interferes with it, like interviews, side line reporters, color commentators, too many graphics and explanations and pontificating loudmouths, and then the bullshit penalties deciding the outcomes. I swear, if I didn't gamble I don't think I'd even waste my time watching the games.
End of rant.

[dragon1952]

Damn, did I write all that

[Bettorsworld]

Just to be clear - I will give you the referee angle, or the bad player or group of players angle. Heck, it's happened plenty of times where they have been caught (the usually are)

It's the widespread conspiracy theory that I say is nonsense. It's the folklore of losing bettors.

But I have an open mind. There are folks who believe the Kennedy assasination was a conspiracy. They have provided lots of facts and evidence over the years. They have connected the dots to the point that any reasonable person would have to admit a conspiracy was likely.

No one has ever provided me with that evidence here in this thread. My questions remain unanswered. Tell me how it all works. Tell me who exactly is involved. Tell me who "THEY" is. Connect the dots to support your argument.

--------------------------

Having said all that.......there was a good book put out, I think it was about 10 years ago that touched on precisely this subject. The author actually did try to connect some dots. You guys who buy into this would really love this book. I wish I could remember the name of it. If I do, I'll post it. It's a good read.


On that note

[Taxman]

I am being sarcastic here.

Are all of the games fixed? Here is an example of a fluke play that cashed for me on Sunday.

I really liked the under in the BAL/NYG game. Total is 40.5, NYG wins 30-10. A play omitted was the missed extra point. Thank you very much for the hook!

For as long as I have watched sports, there will ALWAYS be at least one play a game were a call was missed (ball instead of a strike which was down the heart of the plate, good spot or poor spot, touchy foul, and so on). Or watch about the half court shot in the NCAA finals a couple of years ago, did the kid have the points and fortunate enough to hit a 40 footer?

The point is, the uniqueness of the emotional roller coaster of the Pitt game amplified the end result.

I can remember, I think last year or two years ago, quite possibly and SEC game? Against or on Kentucky? Where they scored a TD at the end of the game but elected not to kick the extra point. As such, I lost by one instead of pushing.

In my opinion, it's hard to fix a game. There will be more times than not when you will be effected by a blown call.