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Championship College Football Saturday Discussion

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  • Championship College Football Saturday Discussion

    Big 12 and SEC championships are the marquee games with the surprisng SEC clash of BC and VT, that is intriguing.

    My early leans are

    Florida -9.5 (probably will grab some florida at this number early) and watch the line and see if I want more later on in the week.

    Mizzou +17 over Okie

    VT +1 over BC...no real opinion here so i will probabal ywatch in what shuld be a good game.

    I think Florida rolls but I want to hear from anyone making a case for Bama and that Snake Saban.

    Mizzou got caught looking ahead but I think they can play a shootout game against Okie and stay in the game until the 4th quarter. I think we are gettng some added points with the way Okie finished and the way mizzou tanked against KU last week. If Okie would have won by a few and Mizzou would have beat KU, I think th eline would be more around 14 points where it opened. But whats in the minds is what happened saturday, and the value play in my eyes is in Mizzou at this point.

    let me know what you guys are thinking!

  • #2
    florida should cover double digits vs bama. w/o harvin it tightens a little bit.

    mizzou is getting 17?? hard not to take that much in a game with a good team. neither team has a clue how to play defense so what is the total?? 145?

    also like va tech a little bit.

    florida is the play

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    • #3
      I think both Oklahoma and Florida cover in landslides.

      Alabama simply does not have the offense to hang with Florida. Their qb is a game manager and that will not work when you need to score points.

      I was really expecting the Oklahoma line to be in the 23 or 24. I had Kansas on Saturday and I can't be as nice to say that Mizzou was looking ahead. I think they wanted no part of that game and they got beaten up in the process. If that had been played earlier in the year, they would have crushed Kansas but now their spirit is broken.

      I really think Mizzou will put up little or no fight and Oklahoma cruises to a huge first half lead and both teams go on cruise control for the 2nd half.

      Swicat

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      • #4
        You may be right swicat. Florida has a great offense, but make no mistake about it, this will be the best defense by far they have faced this year. #1 in scoring and total defense in the sec. Everybody acts like Florida is playing Iowa st or washington st. I mean they are the only 11-0 and number 1 in the nation. They also beat the only team that beat Florida. I guess I will be alone in this Saturday. I you guys are right, then vegas is going to make a killing on this one. I mean I've never heard of a number one team ever get so little respect. I think everyone is going to be surprised!!!

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        • #5
          Come on, Easy on the Iowa State Bashing! I think ISU could beat Wazzu!

          Wonder what the betting is lokking like on the Florida/Bama game as far as money? I am questioning my florida play a bit now, but going to stick with it b/c usually my gut is right.

          I am laying offf Mizzou as Okie could crush them easily. May look at the Under just as a contrarian play as many will be on the under there.

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          • #6
            I don't like to play college teaser but I think I found a solid one for this Saturday--

            Army +17.5 over Navy
            BC/VT UNDER 46

            7-point tease.

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            • #7
              I recently read an article that pointed out that the favorites have won the conference championships with a record of 8-1-1 ATS over the past 2 years.
              The average cover was by almost 2 TD's.
              What's kind of funny though, is that Oklahoma was just a -3 point favorite last year against Missouri in the Big 12 championship, and this year with pretty much the same teams Oklahoma is now -17? BTW, during the regular season last year, Oklahoma was a -13.5 home favorite against Missouri in a 41-31 win, but non-cover.
              Another interesting thing. Last year the largest line in the 5 championship games was -7.5 and the others were -7, -4.5, -3 and -3. The year before, the lines were -2.5, -3, -3, -3.5 and -5.
              This year we've got a -17, -15, -13, -10 and a PK.
              Since there is a lot of public action on these games, with most of it on the favorites, the public probably cleaned up big-time the past 2 years. You wonder how much the lines are padded this year as a result. There is likely some value in the dogs.
              Take Buffalo +15, for example. Ball St may be 12-0, and Buffalo just 7-5, but Buffalo started out 2-4 and had to play at Pittsburgh and at Missouri. They covered both of those games as +13 and +34 dogs, losing to Pittsburgh by just 11 and losing to Missouri by just 21. They also had to play Central and Western Michigan early, but lost by a combined margin of just 8 pts. with one game going to OT. Since then they've gone 5-1 with the loss by just 3 pts. The Bulls have turned the ball over just 11 times all year. QB Drew Willy has 22 passing TD's to just 5 INT's. And they have a RB in James Starks who has rushed for over 1200 yds and 14 TD's, and a WR in Naaman Roosevelt that has nearly 1200 yds in receptions and 10 TD's. They are averaging just over 30 pts per game.
              Tulsa, at -13 over East Carolina, recently gave up 70 pts to Houston and struggled mightily to beat Marshall last week in a 38-35 win, and now play the top defensive team in Conference USA who just hung 53 themselves on UTEP.
              We are all probably pretty familiar with Oklahoma/Missouri and Florida/Alabama already, but the dogs definitely have good chances of covering in those games, if not winning SU.
              In the ACC game, I'm leaning towards Boston College -PK, even with freshman Dominique Davis at QB. Virginia Tech will have a hard time putting points on the board against the Eagles 'D' who are giving up just 17 ppg and only 87 ypg rushing, and have 32 sacks and 25 INT's in just 11 games. Boston College has already beat V.T. 28-23 this year. The Hokie offense managed just 3 FG's, 14 FD's and just 240 total yds of offense in that game, and if Boston College hadn't turned the ball over 5 times (2 INT's returned for TD's and 3 fumbles) they wouldn't have even got that probably. If the Eagles can hang onto the ball this time, it should be no contest.

              Comment


              • #8
                Very nice write-up Dragon.........I'm looking forward to this Saturday as much as everyone else.........I agree with you on the East Carolina choice.....I'll take a good defense against a good offense any day of the week, and if I'm getting a 13-point head start along with it, then it's time to go to the window.

                I'm also leaning toward the UNDER on the USC/UCLA game out here..........UCLA has some big problems with their offense and I would be serioulsy surprised if they were to score in this game.........The UCLA offense was responsible for 28 of the points that Arizona State scored last week, and now they go up against one of the best defenses in the nation...........Can anyone say 42-0 USC ?

                I'm still all over Florida as well........They will maintain a comfortable lead throughout the game, and anything Alabama does, the Gators will do better.........Heck, if they were in San Diego tonight, they'd probably beat the Raiders and the Chargers..........They both suck !!!

                Good Luck.
                ;)

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                • #9
                  I was looking at that USC?UCLA under too. My only fear is that USC goes over by themselves! Looks like its at 47 now.

                  I really don't think UCLA scores either.

                  Maybe USC OVER 40.5 as a team? or UCLA UNDER 7.5 as a team--Those are the current lines?

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                  • #10
                    Believe it or not, the USC offense is a little skiddish lately..........The defense has been setting them up in some pretty good situations, but the offense isn't what it was earlier in the season.

                    I'm a little worried about the chance that USC could win this thing 24-0 or 27-0 or even 31-3 and not cover the huge spread.........UCLA's Offensive Coordinator is none other than Norm Chow, who won a couple of National Championships with Pete Carrol and USC before jumping ship and going to the Tennessee Titans for 3 years and settling in with UCLA..............Now I know he hasn't been able to come up with the brilliance on offense with the injury-plagued Bruins this year that he enjoyed at USC, but he might know a couple of things about the USC offense and their schemes
                    and tendencies in certain situations, to muddle the picture even further.

                    I'm not going to put all of my eggs in one basket here because there are plenty of other games to be had, but I'm just saying that for myself, I think the UNDER play on this game is a little stronger than a play on the Trojans themselves............JMO -- Good Luck to you !!
                    ;)

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                    • #11
                      Great points, and I agree.

                      Under looks to be the play! You could alos see Carroll pulling up at the end if he has a big league with Chow on the other sideline.

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                      • #12
                        What would worry me is the UCLA turnovers. They've turned the ball over 15 times in their last 4 games. They had 4 TO's against Arizona St last week (3 INT's, 1 fumble) and every single one was returned for a TD. And they are getting worse as the year goes on. They've got 28 total TO's and over half of them in the past 4 games. Even Washington got 3 picks. And now they play the best overall defensive team they've seen. This one could get ugly.

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                        • #13
                          I am going with USC-32 also.

                          Harvin is out for Florida I just heard. Going to stick with Florida as my play but going to add the UNDER 55 as a play as well.

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                          • #14
                            Well, I think I've got a new found respect for Alabama.That game was closer than the score indicated. And I've got a new found disrespect for USC. What a sorry-ass team that is. They are so far ahead of every team they play, and they know it. All they've got to do is show up in most cases and believe me, that's about all they do too. And it all comes down to the good-guy head coach. Yeah he does get wins out of them but they sure don't play anywhere near their capability. I'm sure he helps immensely with recruiting, but any coach in the country could get this kind of effort out of them.

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                            • #15
                              You're right dragon, I have been all along bias with bama. I have a new respect for florida. I still think bama is a good football team, but clearly Florida was the better team today. I'm on Oklahoma tonight, which will probably will curse them, but I hope it is florida and oklahoma. That would be a great national championship game. I love both qbs. and these two teams deserve to be in the national championship. Good luck to all!!!!!!!

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