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Chicago is currently a -3 pt favorite, but New Orleans has been +3 at -120 to -115 odds all week at my book. Both teams are at 7-6 and still alive in the NFC wild card race, but there are 4 teams ahead of them. Tampa Bay is at 9-4 and Dallas and Atlanta are both at 8-5. Philadelphia is at 7-5-1, if you want to call that 'ahead'. Both teams would likely have to win out to have a chance, as well as have some help in the form of losses by those other teams.
Chicago is 4-2 at home with all of their wins being by at least 4 pts, but only one by more than 7. At 7-6 overall, 4 of their wins are against teams with a combined record of 6-33. They blew winnable games at Carolina and vs Tampa Bay due to late-game collapses, and probably won one vs Philly they shouldn't have due to an Eagle goal line failure late in the game. They lucked out by facing a Colts team that wasn't ready in the 1st game of the season, and got Philly without Westbrook.
New Orleans has had trouble winning on the road at 1-5, but in 3 of those games they were in it till the end. They lost at Denver by 2 pts due to Martin Gramatica missing a 43 yd FG the week following a loss at Washington where they blew a 9 pt 4th Q lead. They lost last week at Tampa Bay in a wind and rain storm on a last minutes FG, in a game they held the Bucs to just 254 total yds and 11 FD's. They lost a controversial game at home against the Vikings by 3 pts where Gramatica again missed 2 crucial FG attempts and a blatant face mask on Reggie Bush was not called that would have sustained a drive nearing the red-zone.
The Saints have had to deal with injuries to Marques Colston, Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey who have all missed significant time. Plus they had to play the equivalent of 4 road games in a row in the middle of the season due to the London game against the Chargers.
I think you can tell that I'm not real impressed with the Bears. I think they caught a couple of lucky breaks with Indianapolis and Philly. They played Detroit twice and St Louis once, plus got Jacksonville after they'd thrown in the towel. They got 3 home games in a row wrapped around their bye week.
On the other hand, the Saints have caught a few unlucky breaks in games, they had the 4 road games sandwiched around their bye, they've had a ton of injuries to key players. But I think the Saints are coming on as of late. They've won 3 out of 4 and everyone is getting healthy. They got Pierre Thomas going good while Bush was out, and now they've got a running game going that racked up 184 yds last week against Atlanta.
Chicago has gone 3-3 since their bye, but the wins have been against 0-13 Detroit, 2-11 St Louis and a 4-9 Jacksonville team that has now lost 6 of their last 7 games (the win was against Detroit).
The Bears have the NFL's 28th ranked passing defense, giving up an average of 234 yds per game passing and 15 TD's. And they haven't exactly been facing a ton of elite QB's. Now they get Brees who's averaging 315 yds and 2 TD's per game, with all of his weapons finally healthy, and a semblance of a running game. The Bears do rank in the top 10 in rushing 'D', but over the past 5 games they have given up a lot of yards on the ground, like 119 to Jacksonville, 178 to Minnesota and 200 to Green Bay. The only way they stopped Tennessee is by keying on the run exclusively and daring the Titans to throw. Collins obliged them with 289 yds and 2 TD's. The Bears can't key on the run against the Saints. They can't key on anything.
The Saints obviously don't have the greatest defense either, but they have done a little better against the run lately. If they can concentrate on clock-hogging running games and force the opposition to pass, that's more time for Brees to be on the field and most teams aren't going to beat the Saints in a shootout. I don't think Chicago will be able to stop the Saints enough to make this a winnable game for their offense. Personally, I think the Saints win this game SU.
Chicago is 4-2 at home with all of their wins being by at least 4 pts, but only one by more than 7. At 7-6 overall, 4 of their wins are against teams with a combined record of 6-33. They blew winnable games at Carolina and vs Tampa Bay due to late-game collapses, and probably won one vs Philly they shouldn't have due to an Eagle goal line failure late in the game. They lucked out by facing a Colts team that wasn't ready in the 1st game of the season, and got Philly without Westbrook.
New Orleans has had trouble winning on the road at 1-5, but in 3 of those games they were in it till the end. They lost at Denver by 2 pts due to Martin Gramatica missing a 43 yd FG the week following a loss at Washington where they blew a 9 pt 4th Q lead. They lost last week at Tampa Bay in a wind and rain storm on a last minutes FG, in a game they held the Bucs to just 254 total yds and 11 FD's. They lost a controversial game at home against the Vikings by 3 pts where Gramatica again missed 2 crucial FG attempts and a blatant face mask on Reggie Bush was not called that would have sustained a drive nearing the red-zone.
The Saints have had to deal with injuries to Marques Colston, Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey who have all missed significant time. Plus they had to play the equivalent of 4 road games in a row in the middle of the season due to the London game against the Chargers.
I think you can tell that I'm not real impressed with the Bears. I think they caught a couple of lucky breaks with Indianapolis and Philly. They played Detroit twice and St Louis once, plus got Jacksonville after they'd thrown in the towel. They got 3 home games in a row wrapped around their bye week.
On the other hand, the Saints have caught a few unlucky breaks in games, they had the 4 road games sandwiched around their bye, they've had a ton of injuries to key players. But I think the Saints are coming on as of late. They've won 3 out of 4 and everyone is getting healthy. They got Pierre Thomas going good while Bush was out, and now they've got a running game going that racked up 184 yds last week against Atlanta.
Chicago has gone 3-3 since their bye, but the wins have been against 0-13 Detroit, 2-11 St Louis and a 4-9 Jacksonville team that has now lost 6 of their last 7 games (the win was against Detroit).
The Bears have the NFL's 28th ranked passing defense, giving up an average of 234 yds per game passing and 15 TD's. And they haven't exactly been facing a ton of elite QB's. Now they get Brees who's averaging 315 yds and 2 TD's per game, with all of his weapons finally healthy, and a semblance of a running game. The Bears do rank in the top 10 in rushing 'D', but over the past 5 games they have given up a lot of yards on the ground, like 119 to Jacksonville, 178 to Minnesota and 200 to Green Bay. The only way they stopped Tennessee is by keying on the run exclusively and daring the Titans to throw. Collins obliged them with 289 yds and 2 TD's. The Bears can't key on the run against the Saints. They can't key on anything.
The Saints obviously don't have the greatest defense either, but they have done a little better against the run lately. If they can concentrate on clock-hogging running games and force the opposition to pass, that's more time for Brees to be on the field and most teams aren't going to beat the Saints in a shootout. I don't think Chicago will be able to stop the Saints enough to make this a winnable game for their offense. Personally, I think the Saints win this game SU.
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