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Part I
It may be HOT and many folks are still on vacation, but August kicks off the best time of the sports betting calendar: Football season! Competition on the field won't be as intense as September, of course, as wins won't be as important as evaluating young talent and trying to keep players healthy. However, there will be betting lines available on preseason pro action and it's possible to cash winning tickets this time of year. Here are some things to keep in mind when watching preseason football.
Coaching Strategy: An understanding of what coaches are trying to accomplish each week in August is essential. With four preseason games to play, NFL coaches will typically go with starters one quarter or less in the first August game, one quarter-plus in second game, the first half and into the third quarter in the third game, and then very little in the fourth game. Keeping starters healthy while getting them some competition against the opponents' first stringers are the obvious reasons.
Coaches will often use "vanilla" offenses, working on short passes and running plays. This is why preseason totals are lower than the regular season. For example, in the first two preseason games last August, the high-powered Colts' totals were 41 and 40, yet in the first two games of the regular season Indy's totals were 44 and 47. In the third preseason game, with starters projected to play more, the Colts' total against ....Denver.... jumped up to 45. Working on basic plays and keeping things simple are usually the case for the first two weeks of preseason.
Newspapers: Keeping tabs daily on what local beat writers are commenting on is important. Many times coaches will hint at potential strategy, such as "We're going to open up the passing game a bit in the first half this week." Or, "Our starters will play two series just to get their feet wet." These tidbits are key and a good sports bettor knows how to evaluate coaching comments, injuries, and how strategy changes may influence the side and total.
A few years ago in a preseason game, the Atlanta Falcons coach was furious with his team's play the week before and announced that the starters would play the entire three quarters. The line jumped from ....Atlanta.... as a 2-point favorite all the way to 5, and went off at 6 by kickoff. Sharp bettors wasted no time in hammering the Falcons, who won and covered the game easily, all because of the extensive game plan revealed by the coach.
Quarterback Play: Quarterback is the single most important position on the football field. Think of the Super Bowl matchups the last decade: How many below average QBs have gotten their team to the big game? The Ravens in 2000 with Trent Dilfer is probably the only one. QB play is essential and a key this time of year as starters don't play the whole game. When wagering on a favorite in preseason, it's smart to carefully evaluate the No. 2 and 3 QBs as they often play as much as the starter or more. A team with a great starter expected to play just two series, with a rookie or poor backup QBs playing most of the game can be at a disadvantage.
Coaches: Coaching is such an important part of football, as so many players need to be organized and taught various roles each week. Some coaches are more demanding in preseason, while others are more laid back. Notice that Bill Parcells is 55-21 SU, 48-24-1 ATS all time in preseason, while Bill Belichick is 27-18 SU, 25-19-1 ATS. Mike Shanahan has an August record of 35-20 SU, 31-22-2 ATS, while Dennis Green is 32-19 SU, 29-21-1 ATS. A couple of young coaches who have terrific preseason marks are new Chiefs coach Herman Edwards (15-6 SU, 14-7 ATS) and Carolina's Jon Fox (11-5 SU, 10-4-2 ATS). A year ago, ....Denver.... was 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in preseason, while the Jets (under Herm Edwards) were 3-1 SU/ATS in preseason, then stumbled through a 4-12 regular season.
Home Field: While home field is a big edge when games count in the post and regular seasons, home field is far less important in preseason, especially in Week 4. In Week 4 of the 2004 preseason, the home team went 9-7 SU, but the visiting team went 11-5 against the spread. In Week 4 of the preseason last August, the home team went 7-9 SU, and was a poor 5-11 against the spread
Check out the blog section of myspace under my username for more info during the season
It may be HOT and many folks are still on vacation, but August kicks off the best time of the sports betting calendar: Football season! Competition on the field won't be as intense as September, of course, as wins won't be as important as evaluating young talent and trying to keep players healthy. However, there will be betting lines available on preseason pro action and it's possible to cash winning tickets this time of year. Here are some things to keep in mind when watching preseason football.
Coaching Strategy: An understanding of what coaches are trying to accomplish each week in August is essential. With four preseason games to play, NFL coaches will typically go with starters one quarter or less in the first August game, one quarter-plus in second game, the first half and into the third quarter in the third game, and then very little in the fourth game. Keeping starters healthy while getting them some competition against the opponents' first stringers are the obvious reasons.
Coaches will often use "vanilla" offenses, working on short passes and running plays. This is why preseason totals are lower than the regular season. For example, in the first two preseason games last August, the high-powered Colts' totals were 41 and 40, yet in the first two games of the regular season Indy's totals were 44 and 47. In the third preseason game, with starters projected to play more, the Colts' total against ....Denver.... jumped up to 45. Working on basic plays and keeping things simple are usually the case for the first two weeks of preseason.
Newspapers: Keeping tabs daily on what local beat writers are commenting on is important. Many times coaches will hint at potential strategy, such as "We're going to open up the passing game a bit in the first half this week." Or, "Our starters will play two series just to get their feet wet." These tidbits are key and a good sports bettor knows how to evaluate coaching comments, injuries, and how strategy changes may influence the side and total.
A few years ago in a preseason game, the Atlanta Falcons coach was furious with his team's play the week before and announced that the starters would play the entire three quarters. The line jumped from ....Atlanta.... as a 2-point favorite all the way to 5, and went off at 6 by kickoff. Sharp bettors wasted no time in hammering the Falcons, who won and covered the game easily, all because of the extensive game plan revealed by the coach.
Quarterback Play: Quarterback is the single most important position on the football field. Think of the Super Bowl matchups the last decade: How many below average QBs have gotten their team to the big game? The Ravens in 2000 with Trent Dilfer is probably the only one. QB play is essential and a key this time of year as starters don't play the whole game. When wagering on a favorite in preseason, it's smart to carefully evaluate the No. 2 and 3 QBs as they often play as much as the starter or more. A team with a great starter expected to play just two series, with a rookie or poor backup QBs playing most of the game can be at a disadvantage.
Coaches: Coaching is such an important part of football, as so many players need to be organized and taught various roles each week. Some coaches are more demanding in preseason, while others are more laid back. Notice that Bill Parcells is 55-21 SU, 48-24-1 ATS all time in preseason, while Bill Belichick is 27-18 SU, 25-19-1 ATS. Mike Shanahan has an August record of 35-20 SU, 31-22-2 ATS, while Dennis Green is 32-19 SU, 29-21-1 ATS. A couple of young coaches who have terrific preseason marks are new Chiefs coach Herman Edwards (15-6 SU, 14-7 ATS) and Carolina's Jon Fox (11-5 SU, 10-4-2 ATS). A year ago, ....Denver.... was 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in preseason, while the Jets (under Herm Edwards) were 3-1 SU/ATS in preseason, then stumbled through a 4-12 regular season.
Home Field: While home field is a big edge when games count in the post and regular seasons, home field is far less important in preseason, especially in Week 4. In Week 4 of the 2004 preseason, the home team went 9-7 SU, but the visiting team went 11-5 against the spread. In Week 4 of the preseason last August, the home team went 7-9 SU, and was a poor 5-11 against the spread
Check out the blog section of myspace under my username for more info during the season
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