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Saturday, Sept 26 CFB Plays

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  • Saturday, Sept 26 CFB Plays

    5* MARYLAND +2 over Rutgers (played earlier in the week)
    5* NORTH TEXAS +5.5 over Middle Tennessee St
    5* RICE +7 over Vanderbilt
    2* STANFORD -8.5 over Washington
    2* VIRGINIA TECH +3 over Miami
    2* NORTH CAROLINA ST -1 over Pittsburgh
    2* MARSHALL +3 over Memphis
    2* NEW MEXICO -10.5 over New Mexico St



    MARYLAND +2 over Rutgers: Maryland comes in here off a SU favorite loss to Middle Tennessee State last week, and that came on the heels of them barely squeaking out a win against James Madison. While that might seem like a team to fade in this spot, I am thinking just the opposite as they are playing a Rutgers team that is not much better struggling with Florida Intl and getting blown out by Cincinnati. Maryland is 24-15-2 ATS over the years at home off a loss, including 14-6 ATS in the dog role. Despite their struggles, Maryland is scoring points putting up 38 and 31 respectively last two games, and league wide we find that non-conference home dogs that have scored 30 or more points in consecutive games are 27-11 ATS since 1996. I’ll ride Maryland here to bounce-back here this week.

    NORTH TEXAS: Middle Tennessee is in a definite let down spot here off their upset win over Maryland last week. North Texas also qualifies in a very strong 60-22 ATS system play that is detailed in our vault that is based in part on Middle Tennessee’s 52-13 blowout win of North Texas last year. I will take North Texas here plus the points.

    STANFORD: Washington off their huge upset win over USC is ripe to letdown here versus Stanford. USC has been the stepping stone last few years, and interestingly, road dogs off a straight-up win over the Trojans are 3-15 ATS last few years. Look for Stanford to bring Washington back to life here today.

    MARSHALL: Marshall qualifies in a situation I just discovered while researching this game. That situation is to play on any game 3 away dog of less than 7 points if they are 2-1 on the season and now playing an opponent with 1 or no wins. That angle is 26-10-1 ATS since 1980, and Memphis has a long history of failure as small favorites going 8-23 ATS over the years when favored by 3 or less points, including 2-8 ATS last 10 in that role. Taking points here with Marshall.

    NEW MEXICO: New Mexico qualifies in a solid 20-6 ATS system play detailed in our handicapping vault, and New Mexico is 13-1 SU last 14 versus New Mexico St winning those games by an average 25.6 pts per game. Lay the points.

    RICE: Qualifies in the same 20-6 ATS vault handicapping system as New Mexico above the Owls are 20-4 ATS since 1996 when getting less than 10 points at home as home dogs. That’s more than enough to make this one a 5* play against a Vanderbilt team that is just 2-7 ATS last 9 as away favorites.

    VIRGINIA TECH: Miami is on the wrong side of a 32-13 ATS system detailed in our vault making Virginia Tech the play here, and the Hokies are 9-1-1 ATS last 11 as home dogs. Take the points.

    NORTH CAROLINA STATE: Pittsburgh is on the wrong side of the same system as Miami above making North Carolina St the play here.
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