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Dragon's NFL picks - Week 4

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  • Dragon's NFL picks - Week 4

    12-5 for the season on posted plays here (12-3 on initial plays, 0-2 on added plays)

    This is a tougher week for me than the 1st 3 weeks for some reason. I guess I'll go with a couple home dogs to start.

    Denver +3 vs Dallas - Denver at 3-0 on the year, having played a fairly easy schedule with a miracle win at Cincinnati, and then cupcakes Cleveland at home and Oakland on the road. Still, in 3 games, they've only given up 1 TD and 3 FG's, and just 644 total yds of offense, and are winning the TO battle 8-2. That puts their defense at 1st in pts allowed, 1st in yds allowed and tied for 1st in sacks (10). And they are 2nd overall in TO margin with +2 per game. They appear to be getting better every week as a team.
    Dallas coming off of 2 emotional, nationally televised home games in a row, one against hated division rival NY Giants, trying to get their 1st win in their new stadium, and finally getting it last week with a huge defensive effort against the Panthers. You wonder if they aren't in for a slight letdown in this spot. I'll take the points and the home team.

    Jacksonville +3 vs Tennessee - The Jags lost a 2 pt game on the road at Indy, played a poor game at home and got got blitzed by Kurt Warner and the Cards, and then won a big road game against the Texans last week.
    The Titans though are at 0-3, have given up nearly 900 yds through the air in their 3 games, and will be without top DB Cortland Finnegan this week. Albert Haynesworth having been lost through free agency, and some of the magic has disappeared, this is not the same Titan team as a year ago. Not sure how they can be road favorites at this point. They can't win with just Chris Johnson. I feel Jacksonville should be the 3 pt favorite here.

    Now some favorites

    NY Giants -9 at Kansas City - The 3-0 Giants, coming off of a 24-0 road win over Tampa Bay, are 6th in the NFL in total offense and 2nd in total defense. The 0-3 Chiefs are 30th in total offense and T21st in total defense. In the 2 real games the Chiefs have had this year (Oakland excluded), they have been held to an average of just 192 yds of total offense. In those same 2 games, Flacco and Kolb have combined for 634 yds passing and have led their offenses to 901 total yds., 53 FD's and 72 pts.

    New Orleans -7 vs NY Jets - I realize the 3-0 Jets have been tough so far, but they haven't faced a team that has been clicking on all cylinders like the Saints have. New Orleans is the top rated offense by far, and what is surprising is that they are the #2 rushing team in the NFL. They have won all 3 games by at least 18 pt. margins. And they have been playing some defense too. The Saints have too many weapons to keep track of. Maybe not another blow out, but at least a TD win.

    Pittsburgh -6.5 vs San Diego - I'm picking this game because of the 'stink factor'. Pittsburgh appears to be really struggling at 1-2, and the Chargers are flying pretty high at 2-1 and are fan favorites, yet they are -6.5 dogs! Both of the Steelers losses have come on the road, and in the last 15 secs of the game. They are only giving up an average of around 290 yds a game. Roethlisberger has completed 71.6% of his passes so far for 860 yds (avg 286 ypg), and has 4 capable receivers with Hines Ward at 18 catches for 242 yds, Santonio Holmes at 15 catches for 232 yds, Mike Wallace at 12 catches for 147 yds and TE Heath Miller at 11 catches for 111 yds. The Chargers are banged up a bit with starters C Nick Hardwick and run stuffing DT Jamal Williams out, and RB Tomlinson and LB Shawne Merriman both at less than 100%. It looks like RB Parker will be out for the Steelers, but not sure it matters much as the line hasn't changed. I'm not falling for this one.

    And this one isn't a pick, just a thought. As much as I like Baltimore and am tempted to take the +2 at New England, I just have a feeling the Pats pull this one out.

  • #2
    This week is tough

    Have to agree here this week I'm waffling a lot. I'm 10-5 so far btw.
    I have to admit I like anyone playing Cleveland!

    CINCY -6

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    • #3
      Ravens are my highest ranked team, while the browns are the lowest ranked team. Dragon is on fire!

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      • #4
        Like the Giants to roll the Chiefs and maybe Jax at home plus the points in a division game.

        I originally like Denver, SD and the Jets, but now waffling on all 3 of those games so better lay off.

        Maybe play Denver/Dallas and New Orleans/Jets over and Pitt/SD under?

        GL

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        • #5
          4-0 on the day, with both dogs winning SU. I'm loading up on my last play as it is now at Pittsburgh -5.5

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          • #6
            Nice Work! Thanks for the plays today.

            Swicat

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            • #7
              Thanks Swicat.

              Also playing a 6 pt teaser for fun. Pays around -110 odds.

              Pit +1/2
              OV 37

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              • #8
                Looking good already for the big sweep!

                Congrats!

                I tailed you on the Giants.

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                • #9
                  Good Job Today,

                  You must be going through mixed emotions for this last game.
                  good luck

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                  • #10
                    Big Ups Dragon!

                    Another week of excellent picks. Just as great was the analysis; well thought out, well reasoned. Very persuasive. Props to you. Thank you for that, sincerely.

                    R.

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                    • #11
                      Thanks guys....appreciate the props. I'm not counting my money on the Steelers just yet as that usually ends up biting me in the ass.

                      garister.....I'm a mercenary and will diss the home team in a minute if I think I can make a buck out of it

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                      • #12
                        Wow......I can't believe I actually had to sweat that one out. It ain't over till it's over.

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                        • #13
                          I had given up and gone away on that one and couldn't believe the score when I checked again.

                          Great calls today! And even your afterthought on NE came in.

                          SD used to have a decent Defense. They got shredded. And now Denver has a good D. Go figure.

                          Carolina and Tennessee are 0-7.

                          Redskins lose to the lowly Lions but squeak by the Rams and the Bucs and are 2-2, same as Dallas. Go figure!

                          State of Missouri is 0-8! Figures.

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                          • #14
                            Despite the loss tonight, I think San Diego and Denver will go down to the wire again for the division title.

                            They have the 2 games against each other, but San Diego just has @NYG, vs Phi and @ Dal , and maybe @ Ten as their toughest match-ups. Denver's got NE, Pit and NYG at home and also Bal, Ind and Phi on the road. That evens things out a bit.

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                            • #15
                              very impressive... nice job Dragon!

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