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Tommy Gold NHL 2009/2010 - Picks Tracking

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  • #91
    Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills

    Whoever will be the Buffalo Bills starting quarterback, QB Trent Edwards or QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, I believe that Houston will have an edge on this match up, since QB Matt Schaub is doing a superb season and he has already 16 touchdowns. With such quality recievers like WR Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels, it's not a surprise at all. On the offense, Houston is very strong on the passing game and their rushing game has improved a lot too, so this will be a good option for this game since the Bills D is having a lot of difficulties to top this kind of game. I can't deny how good the Bills are defending lately against the passing game, getting a lot of interceptions, but I believe that the Texans O will prevail on this one and let the Buffalo defense in trouble.

    Texans D has some shortcomings and they conceed several points throughout the game, but this Bills O is not much better, because so far, they have few points scored. WR Terrell Owens is now even criticizing himself instead of his teammates, but this is more showtime than anything else. Overall, I think that these Texans are better than the low scoring Bills, Houston's passing game is very strong and their running game is becoming dangerous and therefore, I believe that the Houston Texans will win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


    Pick: : Houston Texans -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes

    Comment


    • #92
      2009.11.01 results:

      San Jose Sharks @ Carolina Hurricanes: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +210 (3.10) The Greek (1-5: WIN)

      2009.11.01 finished with a 1-0 and +2.1 units won/1 units risked.
      NHL 2009-2010 season record: 23-37 (-5.8 units lost/60 units risked)



      For today, I've only this pick:

      Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers

      With Smith in the nets and a 4.5 conceeded goals average record when playing on the road, we have here a spot to take some advantage. This seems easy. However, this is just a stat. So, I will continue with some explanation about Tampa Bay, as we won the last 2 reads i've done about this team.

      The Lightning are a special team with extra-confidence when they play at home. But today they will play on the road. In 4 games, they've got 3 regular time losses and one loss in OT. The last two road games, they lost 1-7 and 1-4. Before those 2 games, they won 2 at home, so we can't excuse them with things like "they weren't in their best form". They had also their roster without injuries.

      What can I say about this? They are very weak on the road, with huge problems on the nets, particularly when Smith is their goaltender. It's true that they have very talented players in their first line, but they've got some kind of syndrome, as they usually play bad on the road. Moons' players. Moody players.

      Philadelphia after a good start lowered their performance until they've got that 6 days rest. Since then, they only lost to Sharks and Capitals, but the loss against San Jose was at home. They've scored more than 3.80 goals per game at home, as they are a very offensive team that loves to give good shows and in my opinion, the Flyers are a team that can beat anyone at home.

      Therefore, what can we think about this game? Tampa Bay will attempt to approach this game with a lot of cautions, as they know how bad they are on the road and how much they need St Louis, Lecavallier and so on to play well. Yet, these players can't produce enough on the road and more than that, these players need confidence from the team to play well. That trust will not travel with the team, as they are coming from a bad loss at home, after the draw with Devils for one goal.

      In the other side, the Flyers gave a blowout win last game, winning 6-1 at home against a lousy Hurricanes team. But if we watch the last home games, they gave another blowout win against Florida, and losing in RT and won in OT with teams with a even away record. So, we can see that Philadelphia takes advantage from teams that approach the games with some fears. In their home field, they dictate the law and another blowout victory for the Flyers seems probable.


      Pick: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +175 (2.75) The Greek

      Comment


      • #93
        2009.11.02 results:

        Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +175 (2.75) The Greek (6-2: WIN)

        2009.11.02 finished with a 1-0 and +1.75 units won/1 units risked.
        NHL 2009-2010 season record: 24-37 (-4.05 units lost/61 units risked)

        Comment


        • #94
          TG and Garister, any thoughts on ATL + 1.5 vs. the Habs tonight?

          On Saturday, Toronto played Montreal tough. Komisarek took a
          stupid penalty in the 3rd period and Montreal scored as he left the box
          to go up by two, but Toronto came right back with two goals in the
          last three minutes. Montreal looked vulnerable.....

          Comment


          • #95
            Originally posted by Krichinsky
            TG and Garister, any thoughts on ATL + 1.5 vs. the Habs tonight?

            On Saturday, Toronto played Montreal tough. Komisarek took a
            stupid penalty in the 3rd period and Montreal scored as he left the box
            to go up by two, but Toronto came right back with two goals in the
            last three minutes. Montreal looked vulnerable.....
            Montreal finally got a win streak at home.... So, they should have confidence enough... However, Atlanta seems a team with NBA factor (your star is out? Bookers give them great lines? Don´t hesitate to take them!
            ). I will pass this game because it can go for anywhere, as I think Atlanta exaust their game without Kovalchuk. At anytime they will have an awful game, and I dont want to bet on them in that day.
            In the other side, just like you say, Montreal is not reliable enough for me, at least for now....

            Comment


            • #96
              yeah, you are right on about ATL. I was looking at that little window
              when the "team" puts out a little more effort to compensate for a loss
              of top scorer. Thanks.

              I don't think Caps will have same issue.

              Comment


              • #97
                Wow...three different Trashers get their first goal of the season.

                Comment


                • #98
                  2009.11.04, 4 picks:

                  New York Islanders @ Buffalo Sabres: New York Islanders ML +170 (2.70) Bookmaker

                  San Jose Sharks @ Columbus Blue Jackets: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +245 (3.45) 5Dimes, SJS PL -1.5 +261 (3.61) Pinnacle

                  Carolina Hurricanes @ Florida Panthers: Florida Panthers 3Way (1X2) +120 (2.20) Bookmaker

                  Calgary Flames @ Dallas Stars: Calgary Flames 3Way (1X2) +140 (2.40) Bookmaker. CGY 3Way (1X2) +160 (2.60) Bwin, Centrebet

                  Writeups will be posted later in the day.

                  Comment


                  • #99
                    2009.11.04 results:

                    New York Islanders @ Buffalo Sabres: New York Islanders ML +170 (2.70) Bookmaker (3-0: LOSS)
                    San Jose Sharks @ Columbus Blue Jackets: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +245 (3.45) 5Dimes, SJS PL -1.5 +261 (3.61) Pinnacle (2-3 SO: LOSS)
                    Carolina Hurricanes @ Florida Panthers: Florida Panthers 3Way (1X2) +120 (2.20) Bookmaker (3-0: WIN)
                    Calgary Flames @ Dallas Stars: Calgary Flames 3Way (1X2) +140 (2.40) Bookmaker. CGY 3Way (1X2) +160 (2.60) Bwin, Centrebet (2-3 OT: LOSS)

                    2009.11.04 finished with a 1-3 and -1.8 units lost/1 units risked.
                    NHL 2009-2010 season record: 25-40 (-5.85 units lost/65 units risked)




                    2009.11.05, 2 picks:


                    Montreal Canadiens @ Boston Bruins

                    For this match up, we would have a perspective when the season started, a good game. However, this teams were disappointing, showing only in few games the talent they got in their rosters. In this moment, Montreal are showing some improvements, with 5 of their 7 wins, appearing in their last 6 home games. However, when we though that Montreal was getting strong, they went to Pittsburgh to a blowout loss, and achieving another loss in the next game, at Chicago.

                    So, Montreal is not a reliable team. Knowing they are coming from a home loss, where they were trying to use their home advantage to rise their game, we can view here a spot: as a non reliable team, they are without confidence, as their efforts for the 6 straight wins at home, were smashed. Montreal as showed as well problems in their defense, taking most of their wins to OT, resulting from a power defense that shows problems when pressured, often allowing goals in the last minutes.

                    Boston, is a curious team, as they usually alternates a win with a loss. But for the first time this season, they got 2 straight losses, and worst, 0 goals on that games. They are on red alert about their offense, struggling with Savard injury. But even with Savard out, they already proved that they can score, and had improve their defense game to cover that powerless offense. In their last games, they are allowing just 1.60 goals per game.

                    So, for this game, I will take Boston 3way, but that's because this teams some times don´t play as we expect, otherwise, I would take PL. Montreal with huge defensive problems, coming from a loss, and know that tomorrow, when they return to home, they got to win to any cost to continue showing their fans improvement. So, I expect a cautious Canadians team, playing just the enough to don´t be humiliated. Boston, have offense problems, but will not miss this opportunity, facing a awful defensive team. With their defense, which will be the key for victory, they can with calm improve their offense.

                    Don´t forget the confidence, Montreal is not a reliable team, as Boston is more than accustomed to losses, normally giving great responses, as I expect today.


                    Pick: Boston Bruins 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker



                    Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators

                    After a nice start, Senator lost some of they fuel, with 4 losses in last 5. Despite the recent form, we can build a probable scenario for today's game. This because Senators had almost a week off, playing last game 5 days ago. So, they had time to think what was missing in the last games, and how to return to initial form. Don´t forget that they got the will, as they are angry because of the last loss, a defeat at home against Atlanta, due to a sensational perform of Atlanta´s GK. So, they know what they are capable, they know how to play well, and make sure they can seek luck.

                    Tampa, is a team that I already described many times. Home team. They live under the talent of their first line, but that talent needs to be stimulated by the supporters. In foreign pavilions, they usually can´t get that talented, and their first away win, yesterday, was because of Toronto demerit. If we look before yesterday, they lost 3 away games for 3 or more goals. Curious is the fact that they suffered the biggest defeat two weeks ago at this field, losing 7-1 to Senators. But they already gave their revenge, winning 5-2 at home.

                    So, for this game, I think we have a great value on Senators PL. Is not so risky as it seems, and the odds are with 0.40 plus than what I think it would be fare. Senators, despite the last results, had time to think their game. This game is the perfect game to them, they know how to break this team, as they won 7-1 two weeks ago. They can´t wait a better team to face tonight and show they can improve from the last results.

                    Tampa, get their first away win yesterday, and will have a B2B game, in a uncomfortable position to them. They got a little bit of luck, as they won with opponent demerit and had a more tired game, as they got to hold the result despite Toronto pressure. They are a easy prey as visitors, and Senators will like be a bad host for them.


                    Pick: Ottawa Senators PL -1.5 +190 (2.90) Bookmaker

                    Comment


                    • It seems that you've done a little better with your PL picks. Do you know what your record is on just your PL picks?

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by dragon1952
                        It seems that you've done a little better with your PL picks. Do you know what your record is on just your PL picks?

                        Take this data with a grain of salt, because I need to verify it one more time.

                        Since 2009.10.14: 7-10, +2,99 units won, 17 units risked.

                        Before 2009.10.13, not official: 3-4, +1,8 units won, 7 units risked.


                        Florida Panthers @ Chicago Blackhawks: Chicago Blackhawks PL -1.5 +200 (3,00) Bookmaker (3-4 SO: LOSS)
                        Columbus Blue Jackets @ Vancouver Canucks: Vancouver Canucks PL -1.5 +205 (3,05) 5Dimes (3-5: LOSS)
                        Columbus Blue Jackets @ San Jose Sharks: San Jose Sharks 3Way PL -1.5 +180 (2,80) Bookmaker (6-3: WIN)
                        Florida Panthers @ Carolina Hurricanes: Carolina Hurricanes PL -1.5 +220 (3,20) Bookmaker (7-2: WIN)
                        New York Islanders @ Boston Bruins: Boston Bruins PL -1.5 +140 (2,40) Bookmaker (4-3 SO: LOSS)
                        Colorado Avalanche @ Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks PL -1.5 +155 (2,55) Bookmaker (4-3 SO: LOSS)
                        Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Rangers: New York Rangers PL -1.5 +180 (2.80) Bookmaker (7-2: WIN)


                        On ML only, since 2009.10.14: 6-6, +2,31 units won, 12 units risked. Only 1 ML risked below -110 (1,91) odds... It was lost. :P

                        Before 2009.10.13, not official: 2-0, +1,86 units won, 2 units risked.

                        New Jersey Devils @ Tampa Bay Lightning: New Jersey Devils ML -105 (1,95) Bookmaker (3-4 SO: WIN)
                        Dallas Stars @ Vancouver Canucks: Vancouver Canucks ML -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (4-3 SO: WIN)


                        On ML sports (NHL and MLB) I'm true fade material on totals.


                        On 3Ways (1X2) I'm losing a lot so far: -14,87 units in both official and not official records. I need more data to see if it is better in certain situations to just play the ML +100 instead of the 3Way (1X2) +140.

                        Comment


                        • 2009.11.05 results:

                          Montreal Canadiens @ Boston Bruins: Boston Bruins 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker (1-2 SO: LOSS)
                          Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators PL -1.5 +190 (2.90) Bookmaker (3-2 OT: LOSS)

                          2009.11.05 finished with a 0-2 and -2 units lost/2 units risked.
                          NHL 2009-2010 season record: 25-42 (-7.85 units lost/67 units risked)




                          2009.11.06, 1 Pick:

                          Toronto Maple Leafs @ Carolina Hurricanes

                          Be aware about this play. This game can be a long shot, however, there is a big value on PL line. I will not let this one pass. Hurricanes are with 9 losses in a row. They are with the worst records in PIM and scoring. But, they have one team worst than them in goals allowed. Imagine who? Toronto.

                          For those who keep a track of my picks, already knows that fade Carolina has been a good bet, but i had advise everyone to the turning point. That turning point will probable appear at home, and I´m sure that will happen soon, and at home against a poor road team. Difficult will be to analyse if there will be a real turn point, or a fake turn point, but, one victory, will appear in the next games for sure.

                          For this game, Caroline will bet everything they got. Hurricane´s coach don´t feel is job is in jeopardy, giving the excuse of injuries and so on to the results. However, he seems a believer, and that could be great to rise Hurricane´s confidence. At least, this is my thought. About the roster, the news are not the bests, with Whitney probably joining Staal on the injurie´s list. They call their first pick from last year draft to fill the empty spots in their offense, and will play today.

                          Toronto, got their first win in their last road trip. Curiously, after that win, they got 4 OT losses in 4 games. This can damage a team, that get their first win, feel that they can turn things around, and them, lost 4 games on OT, where they tried to give all they got, and feel no luck. Defense, was their problem, and they are demoralizing for sure. There were no results when they feel that they can bring results, particularly in last game at home.

                          So, this game will be the battle for the worst team title. Two teams, digging deep their own holes without any help. Today, someone has to win, who will be? Toronto, the "one win team", who have no luck and are the worst defense team? Or Carolina, a team with their worst losing streak since 93/93?

                          My guess, is that Caroline, a team that get the playoffs last season, and i enjoyed to watch, will play to win, and win. They are a team that can fight, just need an opportunities to break this streak. Even with their best players out, this is game is not a question of talent, but a question of will, and believes.

                          Take note that this game have no value on ML and 3WAY play. PL have a great value, as I believe that Carolina will play with all they got, and the public will try to help. Against a poor defensive team, this is their opportunity. Toronto just waste their last opportunities, will arrive to this game with no confidence. In the last Hurricanes win, they won at home 7-2.

                          So, if they start their engines at home, against a this awful defensive team, we can expect a blowout, they will get enthusiasm and can turn this one in a easy game.


                          Pick: Carolina Hurricanes PL -1.5 +240 (3.40) 5Dimes, Diamond (DSI)

                          Comment


                          • Philadelphia Flyers @ Buffalo Sabres

                            The Sabres are being great so far. With 9-2-10 record, they are a no fearing team. Their losses comes in NY Islanders and at home against Atlanta, but Detroit for example, they were able to shutdown. They got courage. Despite my opinion (I still have doubts about their reliability), they are proving something, being cohesive, and taking the advantage of Ryan's Miller performance so far.

                            Flyers, is the team I most enjoy to watch. Show is what they promise, and they come from 2 blowout wins at home. At road, they still have to improve their game, because is not so easy for them to play outside, their kind of game is more adequate to play at home.

                            However, the spot for me to this game, is that the team have some players with flu and had made today an airplane travel, where the air is not well renewed. So, it's likely that more players got the virus (seasonal flu, not H1N1), and as we know, flu most effects is physical tireness and fever. There is medication to ease the symptons, but it is not enought on theses cases. So, it seems to me a game to take Sabres. Without this spot, I would take Flyers for sure as dogs, but I wonder if bookies didn't make them dogs because of the flu...


                            Pick: Buffalo Sabres 3Way (1X2) +115 (2.15) Bookmaker

                            Comment


                            • 2009.11.06 results:

                              Toronto Maple Leafs @ Carolina Hurricanes: Carolina Hurricanes PL -1.5 +240 (3.40) 5Dimes (2-3: LOSS)
                              Philadelphia Flyers @ Buffalo Sabres: Buffalo Sabres 3Way (1X2) +115 (2.15) Bookmaker (2-5: LOSS)

                              2009.11.06 finished with a 0-2 and -2 units lost/2 units risked.
                              NHL 2009-2010 season record: 25-44 (-9.85 units lost/69 units risked)

                              Not pretty...

                              Comment


                              • 2009.11.10, only 1 Pick:

                                Calgary Flames @ Montreal Canadiens

                                This is a game between two canadian teams. Montreal is a very experienced team, full of seasoned players. However, they haven't played well, they had a bad start and only recently at home they've got a good winning streak. Yet, the losses have returned.

                                Calgary is a very strong team this year in my opinion and they are playing well. They have difficulties in managing their motivation, which translates in their results, when they have a loss, on their next game, they usually have a second loss two... This show some lack of mental strength, despite the quality of the roster.

                                This is a game with a simple spot. Montreal is a very seasoned team and they play much better at home. Despite their bad moment, they like to host canadian teams and they give all they've got on these games, usually scoring good results. They are mentally strong and can reverse the late bad results trend, fighting against one of the best teams of the league. Calgary despite their good games, doesn't have now the needed mental strength, showing some strain on their last games.


                                Pick: Montreal Canadiens ML +110 (2.10) Bookmaker

                                Comment

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