College Football thoughts/Plays

[woodee12]

Feel free to throw your thought in this thread about this saturday's games.


Its an open discussion and want to see what you guys are thinking. I got distracted last week by the baseball playoffs and my trip down to see the Cards get swept so I didn't have the soberness to post anything much last Saturday so hope to regroup and post some winners this week.

Tough Cards this wek i think with some good games, but tight lines.

Game #1 Clemson -7 vs. Wake Forest

Clemson coming off bye week, and are at home off a loss last time out at Maryland.

And also lost last year at Wake, so they have some revenge on their mind along with trying to regroup and make their season live up to expectations.

Wake's record is smoke and mirrors, beating Elon, Stanford, NC State, and Maryland. Stanford being the only test.

Clemson lost to Maryland, yes, but has also played GTech, and TCU, making their losses against a lot better competition.

Hostile enviroment + revenge + a week to rest = a win and cover.

My best play of the day on Saturday.

[woodee12]

So play #1 this week is Clemson -7.


Onto a look at possible play #2.

Mississippi State -4 over Middle Tenny State.

This is a huge WTF line and I have not oulled the triigger on it yet. On one hand, is a SEC team facing a Sun Belt team, which should be a for sure 'play on' factor.

I don't know about you but besides, maybe Troy, the sun belt is smaller, and less physical than the power conferences.

Based on that alone, I think Missy State runs all over them for an easy cover.

BUT, vegas does not just give away free money, and any line like this, looks a little fishy to me, so I don't think I am going to bite this time.

Maybe Missy State wins, but maybe by a couple, and does not cover. 81% of people are on MSU, yet one book has a reverse movement on Midd. TN. down to +3, while all the others are around 4. So either some huge money came in on that book, or they are just behind everyone else.

So not one I am going to play yet, but one to watch just for fun, and see why a SEC team is not a larger fav than it is over a possible, less physical push-over like MTSU??

[woodee12]

Illinois -2.5 at Indy

I said I was going to swear off Illinois if they lost for me last week, but I am crazy and going to give them one more shot.

0-5 ATS this year so maybe the oddsmakers finally have one right this week.

I think the more athletic team wins this one easily, and that would be Illinois.

This is their best shot for a Big 10 win, and unless they have totally quit on Zook, then they should dominte from the start!

Carpet, what do you think????

[Swicat]

Swicat's Picks

Here are my selections-

Clemson -7- Time for the tigers to step up. They have had their off week and should be well prepared. Wake has been able to win at home but not likely to handle the road test so well.

Auburn/Kentucky under 57- I think that Auburn should be able to handle a banged up Kentucky offense. Kentucky's best chance is to control the clock and not get into a shootout. Good recipe for the under.

South Carolina +17- I will bite on this one. Alabama is a great team but USC has stepped up week in and week out and i think they will make a game of it. I don't think Bama will be able to run the ball at will and may struggle (a bit) in the passing game.

TCU/Colorado st under 49.5- The horned frogs are a great defensive team as we all know and will turn up the heat at home. CSU has had a respectable season thus far but they will be overmatched offensively in this one and will need to rely on their defense to make it respectable.

Big games- to have a side.

ND/USC under and USC -10.5 I think the Irish will have a decent showing but eventually will relent to the superior Trojans.

GA Tech/Va Tech over 51- With Ga tech's impressive run attack, I expect them to mix it up a bit and throw effectively. Va tech will score some and of course get either a defensive or special teams TD which always helps the over get there.

Texas -3.5- I have not been impressed with the sooners run game. I think that will eventually cost them in this one.

Good Luck!
Swicat

[garister]

I may know why MTS is only getting +4 1/2
Miss state is in a sandwhich game, they have 13 TOs in last 3 games, Tyson Lee is 3td/6int.
MTS got embarrassed on national and had almost 2 weeks to prepare.
I may be stupid but I put a little on MTS.

others I like
Utah st +8
Tulane +17.5
Army +10.5
SMU +7.5
BC-2.5
Ball st+3

I am hoping for a doggie day.

[Carpet]

Woodee

Illinois should win this game hands down if Juice
starts the game. Look for ILLINOIS TO AIR IT OUT

High scoring game Illinois winning this by 7

Carpet

[Krichinsky]

Garister,

Like em all...but I think Navy covers easily over SMU.

Good Luck.

[hart attack]

what you said about clemson and miss st made sense to me. I had both straight up as well as three team parlays with arkansas and tex tech (both looking solid at HT). seeing as how I can always seem to pull defeat out of the jaws of a sure victory I just played some nice fat middles for 2H on neb and fla....

I WILL win this day!

TY for the info

[Carpet]

Not looking good for Illini 1st half as they are
playing like crap

For god sakes if they cant beat Indiana then
the program has hit rock bottom

More to follow

Carpet

[papachippy]

great call on Clemson...TY

"Papachippy knows when to make his move."

[Krichinsky]

SMU covered. Good call Garister.

[garister]

SMU covered. Good call Garister.

yes they did and that was fun to watch as SMU scored a late TD to send it into OT where Navy scored the W with a TD on their first possession.
but I still only went 3-4. luckily for myself I noticied I was on the wrong side for MTSU and played Miss st at the half. I didn't check stats but they ran all over MTSU must of had over 400 yards rushing.

best of luck to us this week.

[woodee12]

Onto this week now...

One early play for me--

USC -20 over Oregon State...Don't play too many huge spreads but this is genereous in my opinion. USC by 30+.


Also really like:

Baylor +10 at home vs. Okie State

UTEP +8 over Tulsa on Wednesday...Waiting for the line to rise.

Okie -7.5 at KU...Bradford gone-who cares...Thats Landry guy has already been in this year so he knows what to do.

Michigan State -1 (-105) to beat Iowa...Line has moved to MSU -1 now, so i will wait and see where it goes. Like last week's game at Wiscy. 80%+ on Iowa but the line moves huge the other way with the sharp action.

Maybe Nebraska -18 over Iowa State too depending on QB situation.

Back with more as the week goes--What do you guys like?

Lots of good SEC games this week too.

[woodee12]

10/24/09 11:00AM Georgia Tech -5 at Virginia
10/24/09 11:00AM South Florida +6½ at Pittsburgh
10/24/09 11:00AM Central Michigan at Bowling Green Over 60½
10/24/09 11:30AM Iowa State +18½ at Nebraska
10/24/09 11:30AM Oklahoma State at Baylor +9½
10/24/09 2:30PM Oklahoma -7½ at Kansas
10/24/09 2:30PM Wake Forest at Navy +3
10/24/09 3:00PM Idaho +15½ at Nevada
10/24/09 6:00PM Iowa at Michigan State -1
10/24/09 7:00PM UNLV -1 at New Mexico
10/24/09 7:00PM Oregon State at Southern Cal -21


My saturday plays. Currently rated #1 at www.Sports-bettors.com for free cappers in CFB.