Dragon1952's NFL picks - Week 8

[dragon1952]

24-11 on initial posted NFL picks. 0-2 on added plays.
3-2 last week, and just 8-7 the past 3 weeks so be careful.

Oakland +16.5 @ San Diego - Might be able to get +17. I must be crazy....but....horrible efforts by Oakland and Kansas City last week give this play more value. JaMarcus Russell turned the ball over 3 times leading directly to two 1st Q, 4 yd TD drives for the Jets. The Jets had 4 legit drives of 66+ yds that resulted in 24 more pts, and they accumulated over 300 yds rushing in the process. I'm not sure the Chargers have the running game to take advantage of this weakness though. And I don't think they have the defense to force that many Raider miscues. In the 1st game of the season at Oakland, the Chargers only got 77 yds on the ground and needed a last minute TD drive to pull out the 4 pt victory. Oakland got a combined 148 yds rushing against the Chargers in that game, and should be able to duplicate that with Fargas and Bush.
Jacksonville +3 @ Tennessee - Let me see......0-6 Tennessee is averaging 14 pts per game and giving up an average of 33 pts per game, and may switch to QB Vince Young for this game, and they are 3 pt favorites?!?! Of course that total is skewed a bit by the 59-0 trouncing by the Pats, but still, they gave up 34, 24, 37 and 31 pts the 4 weeks prior to that. And one of those games was a 37-17 loss to this same Jag team. The Jags rolled up 442 yds of offense and 27 FD's in that match-up. QB Garrard was 27 of 37 for 323 yds, 3 TD's and no INT's, and they didn't even really need RB Jones-Drew, getting over 100 yds on the ground from Garrard and backup RB's Rashard Jennings and Greg Jones. Hmmm.......
Baltimore -3 vs Denver - Both teams off of a bye. The Ravens need a win bad after starting 3-0 only to lose their last 3 games in a row by 6, 3 and 2 pts. The Ravens, however, are 8-3 SU and ATS at home since the beginning of '08, with all of the wins being by at least 7 pts and 7 of them coming by double-digits. And in that same time frame, they are 9-2 SU and ATS as favorites overall, with all 9 of those wins coming by 14 pts or more. Denver has a comfortable 3 game lead over the Chargers, and the Ravens are desperate for a win. I think Baltimore comes out swinging after the bye.
Minnesota +3 @ Green Bay - Minnesota jumped out to a 30-13 lead in the last meeting, and then played soft 'D' allowing the Packers 10 quick pts in garbage time. Most of that late damage coming from TE Jermichael Finley who is out for this game. The Vikes sacked Aaron Rodgers 8 times in that game before letting up. They probably could have gotten a couple more if they hadn't started playing soft. Vikings 'D' is #1 in sacks at 24. Packers are 31st in sacks allowed, having given up 25. Favre will be psyched for return to Lambeau.
New Orleans -10 vs Atlanta - I will continue to go with the Saints until they fail. All 6 Saint wins have been by 12 or more. Their 3 home wins have been by 18, 14 and 21. Atlanta has proven it can lose big on the road with two 16 pt losses already to the Pats and Cowboys. The Saints have the #1 overall offense (#6 passing/#3 rushing). Falcons 'D' are #26 against the pass and #23 against the run. Atlanta will likely have to score over 30 to get the cover.

Also, a slight lean towards NY Giants PK over Philadelphia. The Eagles are playing terrible offensively right now and may be without Westbrook.
Also a lean towards Arizona -10 vs Carolina IF Delhomme is playing.

[Riker]

Some Good Picks Here

I like some of your picks here, especially MIN and JAC. Good analysis/breakdown. What do you think of NO's Defense?

-R.

[red raider 84]

Be really careful with the Jacksonville pick. Tennessee has been really banged up, especially in the secondary. The beat down at NE came at mainly the expense of two rookies at the corners against Brady, Moss, and Wes Welker. They are still dinged up, but my guess is the starters will play. I listen to the Jeff Fisher show almost every week and I think Tennessee comes back off the by week and comes up with a much better effort. There will be new wrinkles in the offense with Collins and Vince Young. Think of who has beaten them thus far. @NE, IND, @JAX, @N.Y. JETS @PITTS, and a improving Houston team. My point is, they haven't played any push overs and they were banged up in alot of those. In my opinion, this is one of the best coaches in the league and I think he has them ready. Good luck to all!!

[woodee12]

Plus that Tenny line is a little odd to me.

An 0-6 team who just got manhandled 59-0 is now a fav???

How can that be???

[red raider 84]

Don't get me wrong, they still have plenty of problems and I'm not saying that now everything is okay. I follow them close and go to at least a game or two a year. But this team is not as bad as there record indicates.

[dragon1952]

It seems like many of the experts have been expecting Tennessee to cover nearly every week so far and it ain't happening. Finnegan may be back after missing time with a hamstring problem, and Nick Harper may return, but they were in there in the first 3 games when Roethlisberger went for 363 yds and then Matt Schaub went for 357 and 4 TD's, and even Sanchez had a couple TD passes. This pass defense sucks, and they haven't been very good offensively either. If Vince Young plays, I haven't seen anything from him that impresses me much. In fact, they would likely struggle even more. Jacksonville is coming off of a bye also, having won 3 of their last 4, and they have more offensive weapons and a much better QB.
I'm also not convinced that the Titans have a hell of a lot of motivation left. I guess we'll see if they play for pride.

[Jeff0624]

Have to say I agree with all of your picks this week except Denver/Baltimore. I wouldn't touch that one with the proverbial 10 foot pole - I keep expecting Denver to slip and they continue not to.

Love Minnesota, NO, Jacksonville, Arizona

[dragon1952]

I like some of your picks here, especially MIN and JAC. Good analysis/breakdown. What do you think of NO's Defense?

-R.

I think the Saint defense is for real. They've generated 18 TO's in just 6 games, which gives the team a +8 TO ratio. They are allowing just barely 300 yds per game. In addition to their 13 INT's, they've had 41 pass deflections, and are allowing opposing QB's just a 52.4% completion ratio. I think Miami just kind of overwhelmed them a bit, and the Saint 'D' had to deal with poor field position in the 1st H, in addition to the wildcat. I think when facing conventional offenses they are a way above average defense, and with the Saint offense and new-found running game controlling the clock more (33:43-26:17 TOP advantage), the defense isn't having to spend as much time on the field.

[The Boys]

What's your opinion on Seattle +10.........I happen to like Seattle here off the bye week. Dallas has GB and Phil coming up and they just had a hard fought game against Atlanta. I think they don't get up for Seattle......Looking for Seattle to possibly steal one here, but the +10 sure does help??

[dragon1952]

What's your opinion on Seattle +10.........I happen to like Seattle here off the bye week. Dallas has GB and Phil coming up and they just had a hard fought game against Atlanta. I think they don't get up for Seattle......Looking for Seattle to possibly steal one here, but the +10 sure does help??

I don't really have a strong opinion one way or the other. Yeah, with Philly on deck the Cowboys might be tempted to peek ahead. Seattle's OL problems and lack of a running game worry me though. Dallas really carved them up last year too.

[papachippy]

Seahawks v Cowboys

The Boys,

Beware of backing the Sea Ducks in this spot. The Hawks have traditionally been hammered @ Dallas and I don't see them showing up here off the pounding they received two weeks ago by the Cardinals. That loss effectively ended their playoff hopes. Romo will feast on our beleagured defense.
I'm a lifelong Seahawks fan and I would love it if they were able to resurrect their season by going into Texas Stadium and beating Homo and the Boys but I just don't see it. I'm backing the Cowpokes in this spot. I see them cruising 42-14.

"Papachippy knows when to make his move."

[dragon1952]

Officially making these picks.

NY Giants -1 @ Philadelphia - McNabb has looked really bad the past 2 weeks, completing just 52% of his attempts, and has been sacked 9 times. I've watched most of both of those games and believe me, he has been bad. And so has his OL. RB Westbrook is also doubtful. Giants have been out of sorts the past 2 games also, but at least they've played somebody. I just can't see the Giants losing 3 in a row, and unless the Eagles offense just magically gets much better in one week, I can't see how they have a chance to win this game.
Arizona -10 vs Carolina - Delhomme is a turnover machine and has been even worse than JaMarcus Russell (4 TD, 13 INT, 56.5 QB rating). The Panthers have a -14 TO ratio. Buffalo had 3 scoring drives of under 17 yds last week. If they do that at Arizona they will get murdered.
Chicago -13 vs Cleveland - The Browns have scored just 4 offensive TD's total in their last 13 games. They have scored 6 pts or less in 8 of those games. In 9 of those games they have been out-scored by 13 pts or more, which is the line in this game. Derek Anderson has thrown 7 INT's to just 2 TD's, and has completed just 44% of his passes for a QB rating of 40.6. The Browns have a -7 TO ratio and are only averaging 225 yds of offense per game while giving up 415 yds. They managed just 12 FD's and 139 yds last week vs Green Bay in that 28 pt loss, while giving up 460 yds. Chicago is coming off of an embarrassing performance against Cincinnati and will likely be able to take out their frustrations on Cleveland. The last Chicago home game was also vs an inferior team (Detroit), and resulted in a 24 pt Bear win.

[chuck]

Like your Jacksonville+3 and Giants-1 picks. My other picks are Denver+3 ½, St. Louis+4, and Jets-3.

[widestrides]

Your original picks were 3-1 with Saints pending.

I am finding that my first impressions and picks do very well, but I talk myself out of some of them and into some losers by the end of the week.

GL

[dragon1952]

Yeah, I obviously need to leave well enough alone. My added picks are just 1-4. I also didn't play all those original picks in the Hilton contest and now I need the Saints for a 3-2 week, instead of a possible 4-1.