NCAA Tourney Discussion

[woodee12]

Lines were released and it looks like they are pretty tight.

I am going to play a very dog-heavy card in round 1, thats for sure as I think this year there are a lot of average teams out there and I really think a couple #1 seeds are done before we get to the sweet 16.

Right now, my first 2 plays are--

Northern Iowa +1 over UNLV

Xavier +1 over Minny

More comments to follow on these later but wanted to get a discussion started and see if anyone else has any insight on they lines as you fill out your brackets!

Good luck and lets make a few bucks putting out Bettorsworld sharp minds together!

[laxsfo99]

Two, I like for opening day on Thursday, March 18th.

Tenny -3 over San Diego St (saw a stat sheet on another board that indicated San Diego St has the worst free throw shooting percentage of any of the 64 tourney teams).

UNLV -1 over N. Iowa (Woodie, is your N Iowa pick a homer play?)

Also, watching the Old Dominion - Notre Dame game (so far, early this week, the public is going heavy on Notre Dame - liking Old Dominion if trend continues).

Best of luck to all!

laxsfo99

[Carpet]

OK Woodee I am all In...........................

1st Round NCAA (So far)

St Marys plus 1.5 vs Richmond...
Mary has 5 players from Australia including a 6-11
center. Richmond plays a princeton style of offense
and if they go cold its over for the spiders.

Baylor -11 vs Sam Houston
Baylor is a very big team one of the largest in the
dance. Sam Houston is a bunch of small swarming
bugs.

OLD Dominion plus 2.0 vs ND
Old D is a great defensive team

N Iowa Straight up over UNLV
The Panthers have a 7-1 space eater down low

UTEP plus 2.5 over Butler
Utep has lost one game in 2 months and has the
best FG defense in the country, plus I just think
Butler is way over rated

Vandy -3.0 vs Murray State
A gift from vegas as Vandy will roll this team just
to much size for Vandy, also vandy is a great FT
shooting team

Minny plus 1.5 vs Xavier
Xavier is 1-5 vs top 25 teams, I really like the balance
and size Minny has and they have been playing well
last few games. Throw out the last game vs Ohio State
as they were gassed playing 3 days in a row


AND as a side bar

Illinois opens a 7.5 chalk over Stoney Brooke in the
smaller dance. Are you kidding me, they should easily
by a 18 point favorite. Maybe the book is worried about'
Illinois being able to get up for this game. I am not have
seen Illinois play some good basketball last couple
games and they should roll......

More to follow

[woodee12]

Good stuff guys.

I like UNI homer or not. I watched them play a few times this year, and thier D is the most intense in the counrty. They have a couple role players that play D and thats all. Usually when you have a team concept like that, you can win, epecially for against an undisiplined UNLV team.

They can score as needed too, and with the clamp down D and the big guy in the middle, they can win one game, and then get criushed by KU the next.

Do like Tennesee too and a few of Carpe's plays as well. Will be back in to discuss more as I look at the card in more detail later today.

[Swicat]

I definitely will be playing dogs in the first round. There are of course some good favorites out there but I think a lot of teams have gotten so used to playing the same opponents over the last 6-7 weeks that it is tough to play a brand new team with a different style. i think it makes for many close games.

initial thursday plays:

San Diego State +3
Saint Marys CA +2½
Northern Iowa +1
Florida +4½
Butler -2½
New Mexico -8½

Friday

Gonzaga +1½
Cornell +4
New Mexico State +13
Utah State +3½

I will sharpen these up and give my best plays in the next day or two

Swicat

[woodee12]

Here's what I have locked and loaded so far for the tourney:

Xavier +1 over Minny


UNI +2 over UNLV


UTEP +3 over Butler...This will be a great game.


P.S. I like Stoney Brook +7 over Illinois tonight. Why inthe hell would Stoney brook only be getting 7 from a huge big 10 school? Gym is small and Illinois may cry tonight.

[Swicat]

Top picks for Thursday-

Saint Marys CA - I think this is a very underrated team, poised to make a run to the sweet 16

Northern Iowa - The MVC never gets the respect they deserve. This is a well coached team that no doubt will give UNLV fits with great defense and patient offense.

Florida - I think BYU will pull out the win but it will be a struggle. Florida has had to hear all week that they did not deserve a bid while BYU is a very good team, they struggled the last few games against quality opponents and will need a big effort just to win.

New Mexico - This is another underrated team. Sure they have a nice seed but nobody is really talking about them as a contender which I think they are. They will be well prepared and will come out of the gate smoking.

Good luck!
Swicat

I still like the other sides I posted but those are on the 2nd tier.

[ALLSPORT]

I really like Tennessee and Vanderbilt to cover.

Small lines for good teams that play defense!

[laxsfo99]

I really like Tennessee and Vanderbilt to cover.

Small lines for good teams that play defense!

With you on Vandy at -3. I like Vandy's SOS at 25 vs Murray St's at 263.

Good luck to us.


laxsfo99

[Swicat]

Looking ahead to Friday-

Top picks:

Gonazaga +1.5- The zags got a pretty low seed in my opinion. They pretty much dominated in the regular season with just a few bumps then ran into a St Mary's playing on all cylinders and got dropped all the way to an 8 seed. I think they are a much better team than FSU and will handle this game easily.


Xavier-1 Minnesota has been an up and down team all season. They can be very hot and also very cold. I think they peaked against Purdue and I don't expect to see that type of performance here against Xavier which is an underrated, well coached squad.

utah St +3- This is another team with somethng to prove. This will be a low scoring game and probably decided by the last shot.

Other sides

Cornell +4
New Mexico St +13

Good Luck!
Swicat

[woodee12]

Friday--

Purdue -4 over Sienna...Sienna is everybody's darling cinderella but line is moving toward Purdue. This is a trap, and I am going against the grain. Purdue rolls.

[zshimer]

2 plays for me today. Clemson -2 Think they control the tempo and inside and win fairly easily. Houston +9. Would not be surprised if they win this game SU. Good Luck!

[woodee12]

Friday-Saturday ML Parlay--

Maryland pk over Houston
Tennessee pk over Ohio U
Kentecky pk over Wake

Appx -125 odds on the parlay. Little steep but worth it with these teams I think.

Sat:

Murray State +5 over Butler...Should be a good one. I talked myself out of Murray and round 1, and i am kicking myself for not going with them and going with Vandy instead. Hope I am not a day late on them.

[widestrides]

I like Washington today. Too fast and too big for New Mexico.

GL

[Swicat]

Nice day yesterday on my posted picks (4-1)

A tough thing for me is to disassociate my bracket picks vs my ATS picks. Don't know about you but sometimes I have fallen into the trap of comingling the two.

With that said here are my picks:

Top

BYU/K State over 155- Both teams have played in multiple high scoring games so I don't look for either team to purposely slow it down. BYU got over the hump with their first NCAA win the other day so I look for them to be confident heading into this game.

N Iowa +11.5 vs Kansas- I think this spread is very inflated. Really how many good teams has Kansas blown out this year. In reality not that many. N Iowa is a solid team with size and will give Kansas all they can handle.

New Mexico +at least 2.5- The good and bad about the internet is the spread of info. I think everyone is making too big a deal about the hobson injury. Even at less than full strength, the lobos are the better team. i suggest waiting for ths line to contnue to climb then pound los lobos.

Other picks

St Marys +5
Butler -5

Good Luck!
Swicat