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Rickjs handicapping picks wk of 07/26

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  • Rickjs handicapping picks wk of 07/26

    Nothing the last week but today 1 lean in mlb:

    905 - A Wainwright
    906 NYM - J Niese +135

    I got +138

    There is one other game that could possibly turn into a lean and I will update if anything develops.

    Mlb 2010

    Total:
    plays 14-17 +3.75
    leans 26-22 +8.68

    July
    Play 1-3 -1.61
    Lean 4-4 +1.12

    June
    Play 6-5 +3.49
    Lean 7-12 -3.58

    May
    play: 7-2 +6.90
    Leans: 8-1 +8.84

    April
    plays: 1-6 -4.92
    Leans: 7-7 +2.30

    Good Luck Today

    RickJ
    Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
    twitter: rickjsportplays

  • #2
    wedn mlb lean

    Tues our pick on the mets won easily as they beat St. Louis 8-2.

    So after an 0-7 start for july we are now on a 6-0 streak.

    Today 1 lean in mlb:

    951 - R Wells
    952 HOU - B Norris +133

    I got +136

    Good Luck Today

    RickJ
    Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
    Twitter: rickjsportplays

    Comment


    • #3
      Thurs

      Another easy win on Wedn with Houston winning 8-1. So after an 0-7 start to july we have turned around after the all star break going 7-0.

      July gives you an idea of the concept of variance and just how extreme it can be. The odds of 7 coin flips coming up the same 7 times in a row are 127-1. So in just 28 day we have hit 2 127-1 shots. But wait....since I bet on dogs the winning 7 in a row is most probably greater then 200-1.

      This should give you a good idea why when gambling even on positive expectation situations you have to respect variance and bet amounts that are proportionate to your betting bankroll.

      Today only 2 home dogs and neither are even close to a pick.

      Good Luck Today

      RickJ
      Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
      Twitter: rickjsportplays

      Comment


      • #4
        Friday

        Nothing on Thurs and today 1 game that has the potential to turn into a pick and it goes at 4 pst. I will update if anything develops later.

        An Email:

        Rick, what makes your 2 171 shots even more incredible is it happened in just 14 picks!!!!!

        My response:

        Exactly. When you gamble on a daily basis sooner or later you are going to be exposed to both sides of variance. And if your betting an amount that is disproportionate to your bankroll its just a matter of time before variance will get you.

        I see this all of the time playing poker. Good solid players go broke all of the time because of this. After all the edges are very thin playing limit poker especially after the house gets there huge share of the money each year. An extreme example is a player that has a 20,000 bankroll and jumps into the 100-200 holdem game at the bellagio. In a typical 8 hour session the top to bottom swing is 8000 to 10,000. It wouldnt take much to go broke with a 20,000 bankroll. But if that same player decides to play 30-60 he has over a 300 big bet cushion. Thats a good start but my preference for playing limit holdem on a daily basis is at least 500 big bets.

        Also consider this....this year in baseball there have been 81 picks. In the 81 picks we have had a 7 and 12 game streak to the upside and a 7 game streak to the downside. The the odds of winning 12 coin flips is 4095 to 1!!!!

        So in just 81 plays we have had some dramatic swings. Betting on a daily basis is like a roller coaster ride with hopefully a positive upwards bias.

        Good Luck Today

        RickJ
        Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
        Twitter: rickjsportplays

        Comment


        • #5
          Sunday mlb play and leans

          Nothing the last few days but today 1 play and 2 leans in mlb:

          play
          955 - C Hamels
          956 WAS - J Lannan +152
          I got +155

          leans
          57 - R Wolf
          958 HOU - W Wright +123
          I got +125

          971 - C Sabathia
          972 TAM - J Shields +125
          I got +132

          Good Luck Today

          RickJ
          Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
          Twitter: rickjsportplays

          Comment

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