Consider playing U w/ totals of 45 or more in Week 1 (77% - 79% win)

[Taxman]

Here is an interesting trend regarding Week 1 totals:
Since 1995, 9-30-2 O with a total of 45 or more (18 of those games were U by at least 10 points!).

Since 2001, 5-24-1 O with a total of 45 or more (15 of those games were U by at least 10 points!).

Since 2006, 2-9 O with a total of 45 or more (6 of those games were U by at least 10 points!).

The public is playing the 'team' without consideration to actual game time the teams have played during pre-season. There will be rust and that is why so many of the games go U by 10+ points.

4 years ago (2006)
CIN/KC 48.5 (23-10)
DEN/STL 45.5 (18-10)
SEA/DET bet at 45 closed at 44 (9-6)
IND/NYG 47.5 (26-21)

3 years ago (2007)
U 46.5 NO/IND (23-20)
U 45 AZ/SF (20-17)

2 years ago (2008)
U 48.5 DAL/CLE (28-10)

Last year (2009) 2-2
U49 DET/NO (45-27)
U46 SF/AZ (20-16)
U46 CHI/GB (21-15)
U47 BUF/NE (25-24)

2010
U48 MIN/NO
U46.5 IND/HOU
U47 GB/PHI

[widestrides]

Damn, and I was all set to go over on the Saints and Vikings. I just think the offenses will have it over the defenses in this one and there will be high emotion. And Sean Peyton will go for it, not try to control the ball, etc. And the Viks have weapons even without Rice. AP could go off and Brett will find someone to throw to, even if it is a Saint CB! I could see 31-24 at least. Maybe I'll go over on this one and under on the other two to balance it out! GL

[widestrides]

Pats and Bengals are now 45. KC/SD also now at 45.
Indy/Houston up to 47. GB/Philly up to 47.5

[dragon1952]

2010
U48 MIN/NO
U46.5 IND/HOU
U47 GB/PHI

The only one of these I don't like is Ind/Hou. The other defenses are good enough to keep them under those numbers. And not sure MIN and PHI offenses will be on to start with. Not saying I'd bet Ind/Hou OV, but I wouldn't bet the UN either.