Dingers NFL Picks Week 1

[Dinger]

Developed my own system going on 6 years now. Made some minor modifications this year to include based on home field advantage, back-to-back home or away games, teams coming off bye week, distance traveled. Zero bias, the system makes the picks.

4* Carolina +7
4* Houston +2.5
4* Minnesota +4.5
3* Pittsburgh +2.5
2* Jacksonville -2.5

Best of Rest
Buf +3
Ten -6.5
cle +2.5
Cin +4.5
Chi -6
GB -2.5
SF -2.5
AZ -4
Dal -3.5
NYJ -2
SD -4

[widestrides]

Like your top 5 except Minny.

[Krichinsky]

If I remember correctly, you were over 60% last year and things picked
up as the season went on. Great job and good luck on the adjustments.
Look forward to reading it each week.

[Dinger]

Last 6 years
Overall : 791-751 52%
Top Pick of the Week 56-40 58%
Top 5: 260-237 52%

STILL TINKERING WITH THE SYSTEM

2-0 on thae last two SuperBowls picks.

[red raider 84]

Dinger, Last year at some point did it not go bad? Just curious because I think we all had discussions about big favorites winning and your system was on the dogs in most of those? I guess my question is why would you tinker with it because you have had some pretty good success in past years...

Maybe last year was a case of some not so very good teams in the NFL ie- Oakland, St.Louis.... Maybe there isn't as big of gap this year from top to bottom and your old system works just fine...

Just wondering did you take maybe what happened last year into consideration? Anyway, hope you do well and get the kinks out... I like what you are doing, anything that works and you believe in is a good thing.... RR84

[Dinger]

I didn't change too much. It still looks like it favors dogs on the top picks and evens out on the best of the rest.
I made changes for teams that have to travel long distances and back to back road games. I also calculate teams coming off a bye and have the extra week to prepare for a team. I keep tinkering looking for that magic formula for 60% plus. Somtimes I tinker too much and the formula can go sour.

I develop a power rating based on points scored/against; pass/rush yardage (Off/Def); turnovers; missed FG's; Failed 4th downs; Penelties; Time of Possesion. System based on last 14 games weighted towards most recent and dilutes near the end. (Excell Spread Sheet). Takes about 1.5 hours weekly to calculate from box scores.

I developed a home/away scale based on back to back road/home, teams coming off bye week, primetime games.

I developed an injury formula but takes two hours to update, and don't have time to instute weekly. Team has many injures to key players I will make the pick in the Best of Rest instead of a top 5 pick.

My picks have zero bias (except injuries that I move down to Best of Rest)

[Dinger]

To answer your question I started out 5-0 and finished 8-8 on top picks.