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  1. #1
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    # 13 Michigan State -7.5 vs Illinois

    Illinois 3-2 travel to take on the mighty Spartans who are 6-0 this year and have climbed into a # 13 spot in the AP poll. This will be a homecoming game for sparty.

    Michigan State has some quality wins this year, with W's over Michigan, Wisconsin and Notre Dame.

    State is a very physical team that was evident in the last game vs Michigan as state just kept pounding the ball forward on the ground with a trio of good physical backs. They play a very well balanced offense combining passing (265ypg) and running (225ypg).

    State is going to run the football but can they run on the Illinois Defense? No single back this year has rushed for 100 yards vs Illinois Defense. Last game vs Penn State they held the lions to 65 yards net rushing.

    This is going to be a great football game and I think Illinois will give Mich St some real matchup problems. (More to follow on that). The field at spartan stadium is natural grass actually it is called turf grass. Turf Grass is made up of over 9 varieties of Kentucky blue grass.

    Illinois loves to run on grass rolling up 275 yards on Penn State last week.

    More to follow

  2. #2
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    WYNN LINE MOVEMENTS
    Money Line Spread Total 1st Half 2nd Half
    Date Time Fav Dog Fav Dog Over Under Fav Dog Fav Dog
    10/10 6:03pm MICHST-9 -110 ILL+9 -110
    10/10 6:06pm MICHST-8.5 -110 ILL+8.5 -110
    10/10 7:03pm MICHST-8 -110 ILL+8 -110
    10/10 7:26pm MICHST-7.5 -110 ILL+7.5 -110

  3. #3
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    Nice call Carpet with your Illini this weekend. They kicked Penn st. rear end.

  4. #4
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    Illinois Defense ranks 21st in the nation in Points allowed at 17ppg.

    Last game vs Penn State they gave up only 7 first downs for the entire game. Now Penn State has evan royster the soon to be all time RB in PSU history.

    Illinois gets two key players back on the defensive side of the ball back for this game and that should help.

    I have watched Michigan State this year and the QB cousins can pick you apart if you give him time to set up. No team has really got after him in the pocket in any game this year. If you want to beat MSU you must stop one of the two attacks they have air and ground if you can stop the run game they are not going to have such a balanced attack.

    Illinois will stop the run game of State this I am sure of, big question is can they stop the pass game?

    It is the time of year that Michigan State begins in Swan swoon it happens every about this time. There is talk that after 2 big wins that state could be ready for a let down.

    I can tell you that Illinois is not preparing for a let down and coach zook is playing for his coaching life right now. (Evidence of that was Zook going for a 1st down early in the game 4th and one from his own 30 vs PSU)

    The line seems to be creeping down to 7 MSU

  5. #5
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    The Line has dropped to 7. I am ground level looking at this game.

    Michigan State has yet to score under 30 points this year. The run game is impressive with Bell and Baker combining for 1232 yards on 168carries that is a eye poping 7.3 yards a carry average. The QB Cousins does not play a part in the running game infact he has yet to have 1 game above zero yards running. This will be one less worry Illinois will face in slowing down the run game of MSU and I believe the Illini will slow this run attack to a crawl.

    Mich State is watching the films of the ILL-Penn St game and they are seeing a blitzing Illini defense. State will not allow Cousins to get hit in the pocket, they will mix it up with many slant routes and under the seem catches for a fast release. I think this QB of state cousins is the best pure throwing QB Illinois has seen all year and he will cause problems for the secondary of Illinois.

    Illinois on Offense, they will continue to provide the red shirt fresh QB SheelHaase (Big 10 fresh of the week) with opportunities to grow his confidence in the passing game. Short 5-7 yard pass plays taking no chances for turnovers in passing. Illinois will rely on its bread and butter on offense and that is the run game.

    Leshoure of Illinois ranks 18th in the nation in rushing. If you ever get a chance to watch Illinois play focus your attention on this back he has all the tools for a 232lb RB and will be a NFL player no doubt.

    Special Teams concerns me for Illinois, last game vs Penn State we fumbled on 3 kick off attempts setting up Penn State at the 10 yard line 2 out of 3 times. No one wants Edward Scissor hands back there catching punts ever again.

    The punting game of Illinois is solid. Michigan State has a very good player who plays WR and returns punts and is lights out dangerous I look for State to bust one off on a Return ve Illinois.

    The FG kicking of Illinois is also Gold kid can nail them from 50 and above Demke hit 4 of them last week in a game. Illinois can score on you from 50 yards or better.

    THE RED ZONE, Illinois this year is tied for # 1 in the nation in % of scoring effeciency in the red zone at 100%. (OK State also # 1) Mich State is # 58 at a 82% scoring completion rate in the red zone.

    This could be a game where State coming off a big win over WI and Michigan could sleep walk into this Illini team, every year about this time the sparties find a way to stumble. Illinois has not had great success play at Michigan State this is for sure and I factor that all in.

    I think that Michigan State is over rated at # 13. They have a good offense but the defense is suspect.

    My early feel for this game is MSU 24- ILL 20

    More to follow

  6. #6
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    The More I look at this matchup the better it gets. I know the Spartans are going stumble some where along the way in the Big 10 and it usually starts right about this week or next.

    Lets Look at some numbers

    Illinois is 10-1 ATS as a road dog and 10-4 ATS last 14 road games vs a team with a winning HOME record.

    Illinois is 4-0 ATS last 4 games when they rush for over 200 yards a game.

    So to be fair I wanted to see about the Spartans trends

    State 2-7 ATS last 9 games at home playing a team with a winning record. (Illinois is 3-2).

    Now this is the best stat of the night regarding trends,

    Michigan State is 1-7-1 ATS last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in previous game.

    Everything I look at points me to that this will be a close game. State has not seen a QB the likes of Illinois yet this year.

    I am taking Illinois and the points, Good Luck my Friends....

    Carpet

  7. #7
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    I am drinking the orange kook-aid thsi week and jumping on board with you.

    I got Illinois +8 on the buy as I saw the line dropping to 7 at one of my book yesterday.

    GL!

  8. #8
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    Drink all the Orange Kool-aid you want Woodee it's a pretty good batch.

    The difference is that Illinois lost one of their last 2, so that puts them in a different type of mind set then the Spartans, who may feel on top of the world,

    I think that some are under estimating how big the Michigan state vs Michigan rivalry is for these 2 teams,Its the biggest regular season game of the year for the Spartans, so to think they won't have some emotional let down is crazy.

    Michigan state is the better team here I don't think that anyone would argue that, but sports betting is about catching teams in bad spots, this is a bad spot for the Spartans, close game that I think Illinois wins by 3 or 4 pt's.

    Kick off at 11am and this Illini football team has grown to love 11am kick offs.

  9. #9
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    my orange kool-aid tastes like pee-pee...

    I think it was a bad spot for Ill b2b roadies did them in.

  10. #10
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    up 6-3 at half playing solid football and then 3 INT's and a fumble 4 Turnovers killed the Illini

  11. #11
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    Yeah, I hear you. I thought it was goign to be down to the wire until that happened. Good capping but its hard when the TO's come into play.

    Nice spot to go against MSU this week i think and will take a serious look at Illinois at home vs. Indy the way Indy struggled to beat Arky State last week.

    Good info overall and just a tough L.

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