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  • AUBURN/BAMA

    I would love anyone's opinion on this game... I know I claim to be the sec guy and all, but I'm being honest when I say that I just really don't have a clue on the game. I don't know if me wanting Bama to win so much is clouding my judgment or what??

    Please, anyone feel free to chime in with an opinion of the game.. I don't care what team you think will win or and over/under... Just need some help on this one...

    Thanks again, RR84

  • #2
    One thing that does jump out at me is why is Alabama a 4.5 favorite? Am I missing something here? I do think that Bama will come up with a plan to slow down Newton. But if you put 7/8 in the box he has shown the ability to hit the big pass on you,
    which in my opinion is Bama's weakness..

    Bama had serious problems with LSU's defensive front. Nick Farely is big and aggressive..I also see him having a big day... I do think it will be a close game and right now at least, I take the 4.5 points..Field goal either way...

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    • #3
      Without breakign down the teams and just looking at the line itself, why wouldn;t you take the points with Auburn?

      And like you said, that is scary when it "looks to easy".

      I am going to play Bama myself, either in a ML parlay with something else, or in hopes of it dropping back to -4.

      Something is fishy when a 11-0 team is getting 4.5 and rising. 3 maybe for the home field, but 4 is a total WTF line to me.

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      • #4
        Don't mean to over simplify the game, but as you inferred, STOP Cam Newton and the Tide wins outright. If not, well Auburn still goes to the SEC title game against South Carolina.

        Per offshore Pinny, the line opened on 11/21 at -3.5 as the Tide favorite and today as you indicated is at -4.5 Tide.

        On paper, Alabama has the better defense allowing 293 yds per game vs Auburn 355 yds per game. Should be close hard fought game.

        If I were to lay some pesos on this contest, I'd wait until about 30 - 45 minutes before game time and see where the line moves. Somewhat similiar to the Georgia - Auburn game. If you recall, throughout the week and into Saturday morning, the line held at Auburn -6.5 to -7.5. Approximately, 45 minutes before game time, the line popped up to -8.5 and in some Vegas and offshore sportsbooks went to -9 at the kickoff. The final outcome - Auburn easily covered.

        laxsfo99

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        • #5
          Honestly when I first saw it I was shocked.... I thought Auburn or Bama a 1-2 point fav... I'm with you it looks to easy to me also....Thanks for your input Woodee.. Got till Friday to mow it over some more...

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          • #6
            Thanks Laxfo99... If I read you right you are saying wait and see what the line does prior to kickoff.. Goes up hard take Bama, Drops hard take Auburn?

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            • #7
              Originally posted by red raider 84 View Post
              Thanks Laxfo99... If I read you right you are saying wait and see what the line does prior to kickoff.. Goes up hard take Bama, Drops hard take Auburn?
              Yes sir! However, if the line holds at -4.5 up to game time than a slight lean toward Auburn with the points.

              Good luck on whatever your final prediction and play. Should be a great contest to watch.

              laxsfo99

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              • #8
                I will say this, Auburn has had the benefit of a really good sec schedule.. Not that it was easy, but the really tougher games were at home...I do believe that they will get beat next week either way to South Carolina. Hey, like I said though I have been off my game as of late...

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                • #9
                  Red Raider you asked for some input so here is how I see this game.

                  I have learned to dont go against Bama at Bryant-Denny stadium;
                  Bama has a major edge on defense over Auburn. Auburn has a high scoring offense but can they really stop anyone from scoring?

                  Take a look back at the Arkansas game when a 2nd string QB shredded the secondary of Auburn for 4 TD's.

                  My numbers say give each team the ball 10 times, and Auburn would score 5 out of 10 times while Bama would score 7 out of 10.

                  I love the defense that Bama brings to this game combine that with the fact Auburn has no defense 4.5 looks to low to me I am thinking more like 10.

                  Auburn is 3-9 ATS last 12 games on the road......

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                  • #10
                    Thanks Carpet, Just saw an interesting stat over on espn.... Of the twelve national championship teams since the BCS was implemented, the worst defensive ranked team to win it was Ohio st in 2002 with a total defensive rank of 23rd in the nation....

                    Auburn currently ranks 50th in total defense, 100th in pass defense, and 60th in scoring defense..... But here is the tricky part as far as the Bama game goes.. Auburn was worse last year on defense and offense when they met Bama..and almost pulled off a huge upset..Bama was much better on the defensive side of the ball then.

                    Bama was number 2 in every defensive category... True the game was at Auburn, but just goes to show you that in a rivalry game as fierce as this one, Stats don't mean a whole lot.. This is a game that is tough to call every year no matter the better team... I fully expect this to be one of the best in years. I also still say no matter what happens this week, Auburn gets exposed bad next week.... GL RR84

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                    • #11
                      Bama is in pads all week getting ready for the biggest game of the year, and I smell some home cooking coming.

                      It will be interesting to see how Auburn responds to the physical play of the Tide. Bama is Nail Tough one of the hardest hitting teams out there.

                      Auburn aint coming in to bama and beating them on home court don't care what rank you are.

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                      • #12
                        line up to -5 at many books.

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                        • #13
                          Woodee, The reason I decided on Auburn is this: Lets take Bama's schedule for instance.. Home games against SAN JOSE, A NOT SO GOOD PENN ST, A VERY BAD FLORIDA TEAM, OLE MISS, MISS ST. ,GEORGIA ST... HOW MANY REALLY QUALITY WINS ARE THERE? The road wins DUKE, ARKANSAS, A VERY BAD TENNESSEE TEAM.... 1 QUALITY WIN AT ARKANSAS...

                          Road losses at SOUTH CAROLINA AND LSU.. We all lose site that they lost most of, in my opinion, The best defense in the nation last year. This defense is NO WHERE NEAR AS GOOD and it will show Friday....

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                          • #14
                            This is Alabama's biggest game now and a chance to "salvage" the season or make up for the two disappointing losses. I like Bama to win and agree with Carpet about the big advantage with the Bama defense. Place will be hopping. Now, will they cover -4.5 or -5? I think so. Home field and greater incentive and motivation for Bama and all the pressure on Auburn. Tide will roll. I think. Maybe. IMHO.

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                            • #15
                              I agree with you and Carpet on the biggest game of the year and the revenge factor.. What I disagree with is that it is such a home field advantage... Auburn has won four out of the last five in T-TOWN.

                              I know it probably sounds like I am an Auburn fan but I hate them with a passion... This is just who I think will cover the spread... I do think it will be close and the points could certainly come into play... I usually try not to wager on this game and probably won't this time either... But as far as my sec picks go, I will have to take Auburn and 4.5


                              GL Widestrides

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