Totals and being a contrarian

[woodee12]

Ok, books are not dumb. In the long run they will always beat guys like me.

I like to play against the grain a lot, epecially in high profile games like the playoffs. Public loves overs, i like unders myself.

Looking at the hockey and hoops games the last couple nights.

The bulls-heat. total is at 181. Majority is all over the 'over' and the under wins. I was on that too. but played the under in game 1 and lost.

thunder-mavs. game 1 total is at 193. Soars over by 40 points, i was on the under, lost that.

Hockey...last game in boston/tb. scored ended up 6-5 on a total of 5.5. The line tonight is 5.5 with the under getting the juice at -120. Why is the book tempting us to take the over after it sailed over by 5 last game?

Sneaky. I am going to be stupid and play the under. Books do not give out free money but 75%+ is on the over right now.

mavs-thunder. total is rising but is now at 201. Why would anyone take the under in this one? I might and I might not, but if there was ever a contrarian play this is it.

Although books need to balance action, these lines do not make sense. I see 75% ob the over in the nba game. Probably more sharp money to deal with if they raise it too much to cover the public, but i feel a 210-212 line is more realistic. That OVER is screaming "FREE MONEY" and that just not happen in situations like this.

So to sum it up, I will probably play both UNDERS tonight, and probably lose, but maybe I will be the smart one tonight?? I bet that one of the unders will hit.

Anyone want to set me straight on this and tlak me into the OVERS?

[widestrides]

I've been doing pretty well with the NBA totals and playing lots of unders. I had the under on the Dallas-OKC game 1. What a loser.

These two teams have some shooters, even off the bench and they were not milking the shot clock. And neither played much Defense. I expect the same. I was also surprised the line did not open over 200. It opened at 197.5 and the sharps jumped all over it. I got it at 199.5 and it is now 201. I see it Dallas 105-97 - so 202.

However, there were a lot of FTs in Game 1, so if the refs let them play tonight, that could make the difference and keep it under.

GL

[widestrides]

I'm 31-16 (65%) on NBA totals.

Now that I've boasted, you may want to fade me.

I felt very confident when I took this, but now I'm thinking, Damn, that's 100 points each!

It all comes down to whether their game plans call for them to run and gun or work the clock.

[widestrides]

I also like Dallas -5.5, maybe even better than the over. They were way ahead and let up last game. If they play better D and Chandler doesn't get into foul trouble, then they win by DD.

GL

[woodee12]

Another unit on the under for me at 201. Just cannot see these 2 teams shooting that well again this game?

Now watch it be tied 99-99 and head to OT!

[dragon1952]

Per sports.com sportsbook, 81 % of the action in the Thunder game is on the over.
I took Dallas and over in the 1st game. This game I bet Dallas at -5 also.

[woodee12]

Unless the 3rd quarter gets cancelled I am SOL. What a shitty line the books put out really?? They are getting smoked on that one, unless the heavy money action is on the under?

[widestrides]

Books were afraid to move the line so much higher than Game 1, but all the evidence was there. If I were taking wagers, I would have set it at 203-205.

[widestrides]

You're not dead yet. On a pace for 200 now!

Mavs slowing it down and not getting good shots. They look tired. OKC looking young and aggressive.

[widestrides]

Both teams using the shot clock now. Without OT, I could see it staying under. That was a 37 point quarter. 48 points to 201. If not OT, it depends on whether there are fouls at the end or if one team is milking the shot clock.