Taxman's NFL Statistical Analysis

[Taxman]

Here is the mantra I always heard growing up: When betting the NFL, just pick the S/U and you'll cover the spread!!

LOTS OF STATS, SORRY....I'M A NUMBERS GUY!!

Did you know that since 1978-2010 there have been 7,704 regular season games? 7,689 wins 15 ties.
15 ties, home team is 5-10 ATS
S/U winner is 6,240-1,241-208 ATS (83.4%)

HOME TEAM 4,453-3,236-15 (57.9% wins)

Straight Up
Favorites 4,996 wins (66.08%) 4,996-2,564-15
HF S/U 3,467-1,646-10 (67.8%)
RF S/U 1,529-918-5 (62.48)
Pick'em 129 games
Dogs 2,564 wins (33.92%)

ATS
Favorites 3,547-3,820-208 (48.14%)
Home Favorites 2,417-2,566-140 (48.50%)
Road Favorites 1,130-1,254-68 (47.39%)

Point Spread S/U W S/U L S/U T ats W ATS L ATS P
A -23.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
A -18.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
A -17.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
A -16.5 0 1 0 0.00 0 1 0 0.00
A -16 2 0 0 100.00 2 0 0 100.00
A -15.5 2 0 0 100.00 2 0 0 100.00
A -15 2 0 0 100.00 0 2 0 0.00
A -14.5 6 0 0 100.00 4 2 0 66.67
A -14 11 1 0 91.67 5 7 0 41.67
A -13.5 8 0 0 100.00 3 5 0 37.50
A -13 8 4 0 66.67 5 7 0 41.67
A -12.5 6 1 0 85.71 3 4 0 42.86
A -12 6 2 0 75.00 2 5 1 28.57
A -11.5 2 2 0 50.00 1 3 0 25.00
A -11 14 3 0 82.35 8 9 0 47.06
A -10.5 17 6 0 73.91 11 12 0 47.83
A -10 32 11 0 74.42 14 27 2 34.15
A -9.5 28 8 1 77.78 16 21 0 43.24
A -9 29 16 1 64.44 18 28 0 39.13
A -8.5 22 5 0 81.48 13 14 0 48.15
A -8 31 11 0 73.81 20 21 1 48.78
A -7.5 31 14 0 68.89 17 28 0 37.78
A -7 109 37 1 74.66 72 69 6 51.06
A -6.5 80 33 0 70.80 56 57 0 49.56
A -6 90 40 0 69.23 60 67 3 47.24
A -5.5 59 25 0 70.24 42 42 0 50.00
A -5 52 29 0 64.20 31 48 2 39.24
A -4.5 63 25 0 71.59 51 37 0 57.95
A -4 98 53 0 64.90 68 76 7 47.22
A -3.5 125 79 1 61.27 94 111 0 45.85
A -3 271 199 1 57.66 211 223 37 48.62
A -2.5 104 105 0 49.76 96 113 0 45.93
A -2 76 60 0 55.88 67 63 6 51.54
A -1.5 45 59 0 43.27 44 60 0 42.31
A -1 97 89 0 52.15 94 89 3 51.37


H -24.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -24 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -22.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -21 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -20.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -20 2 0 0 100.00 1 1 0 50.00
H -19.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -19 3 0 0 100.00 1 2 0 33.33
H -18.5 1 0 0 100.00 1 0 0 100.00
H -18 7 0 0 100.00 2 5 0 28.57
H -17.5 4 1 0 80.00 2 3 0 40.00
H -17 15 2 0 88.24 7 7 3 50.00
H -16.5 3 0 0 100.00 2 1 0 66.67
H -16 16 1 0 94.12 7 10 0 41.18
H -15.5 13 0 0 100.00 9 4 0 69.23
H -15 16 0 0 100.00 7 9 0 43.75
H -14.5 22 5 0 81.48 9 18 0 33.33
H -14 47 12 0 79.66 23 32 4 41.82
H -13.5 52 17 0 75.36 29 40 0 42.03
H -13 65 8 0 89.04 41 31 1 56.94
H -12.5 30 5 0 85.71 17 18 0 48.57
H -12 47 8 0 85.45 23 32 0 41.82
H -11.5 29 5 0 85.29 16 18 0 47.06
H -11 67 14 0 82.72 31 47 3 39.74
H -10.5 65 20 0 76.47 38 47 0 44.71
H -10 144 34 0 80.90 86 84 8 50.59
H -9.5 96 24 0 80.00 64 56 0 53.33
H -9 146 34 0 81.11 90 90 0 50.00
H -8.5 79 16 0 83.16 43 52 0 45.26
H -8 98 33 1 74.81 66 65 1 50.38
H -7.5 122 33 0 78.71 79 76 0 50.97
H -7 266 108 1 71.12 165 196 14 45.71
H -6.5 175 104 0 62.72 119 160 0 42.65
H -6 213 95 1 69.16 158 139 12 53.20
H -5.5 120 55 3 68.57 83 95 0 46.63
H -5 120 50 0 70.59 86 78 6 52.44
H -4.5 122 63 1 65.95 89 97 0 47.85
H -4 181 112 0 61.77 146 143 4 50.52
H -3.5 240 150 1 61.54 178 213 0 45.52
H -3 393 273 0 59.01 286 306 74 48.31
H -2.5 142 116 1 55.04 127 132 0 49.03
H -2 123 100 1 55.16 113 105 6 51.83
H -1.5 61 63 0 49.19 61 63 0 49.19
H -1 116 85 0 57.71 112 85 4 56.85


ATS Breakdown
Dogs 2,564-0 (duh, S/U dogs win ATS all the time)
ROAD/HOME FAVORITES S/U ONLY ATS
Road Game Point Spread S/U W ats W ATS L ATS P %
A -23.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
A -18.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
A -17.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
A -16 2 2 0 0 100.00
A -15.5 2 2 0 0 100.00
A -15 2 0 2 0 0.00
A -14.5 6 4 2 0 66.67
A -14 11 5 6 0 45.45
A -13.5 8 3 5 0 37.50
A -13 8 5 3 0 62.50
A -12.5 6 3 3 0 50.00
A -12 6 2 3 1 40.00
A -11.5 2 1 1 0 50.00
A -11 14 8 6 0 57.14
A -10.5 17 11 6 0 64.71
A -10 32 14 16 2 46.67
A -9.5 28 16 12 0 57.14
A -9 29 18 11 0 62.07
A -8.5 22 13 9 0 59.09
A -8 31 20 10 1 66.67
A -7.5 31 17 14 0 54.84
A -7 109 72 31 6 69.90
A -6.5 80 56 24 0 70.00
A -6 90 60 27 3 68.97
A -5.5 59 42 17 0 71.19
A -5 52 31 19 2 62.00
A -4.5 63 51 12 0 80.95
A -4 98 68 23 7 74.73
A -3.5 125 94 31 0 75.20
A -3 271 211 23 37 90.17
A -2.5 104 96 8 0 92.31
A -2 76 67 3 6 95.71
A -1.5 45 44 1 0 97.78
A -1 97 94 0 3 100.00




H -24.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -24 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -22.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -21 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -20.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -20 2 1 1 0 50.00
H -19.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -19 3 1 2 0 33.33
H -18.5 1 1 0 0 100.00
H -18 7 2 5 0 28.57
H -17.5 4 2 2 0 50.00
H -17 15 7 5 3 58.33
H -16.5 3 2 1 0 66.67
H -16 16 7 9 0 43.75
H -15.5 13 9 4 0 69.23
H -15 16 7 9 0 43.75
H -14.5 22 9 13 0 40.91
H -14 47 23 20 4 53.49
H -13.5 52 29 23 0 55.77
H -13 65 41 23 1 64.06
H -12.5 30 17 13 0 56.67
H -12 47 23 24 0 48.94
H -11.5 29 16 13 0 55.17
H -11 67 31 33 3 48.44
H -10.5 65 38 27 0 58.46
H -10 144 86 50 8 63.24
H -9.5 96 64 32 0 66.67
H -9 146 90 56 0 61.64
H -8.5 79 43 36 0 54.43
H -8 98 66 31 1 68.04
H -7.5 122 79 43 0 64.75
H -7 266 165 87 14 65.48
H -6.5 175 119 56 0 68.00
H -6 213 158 43 12 78.61
H -5.5 120 83 37 0 69.17
H -5 120 86 28 6 75.44
H -4.5 122 89 33 0 72.95
H -4 181 146 31 4 82.49
H -3.5 240 178 62 0 74.17
H -3 393 286 33 74 89.66
H -2.5 142 127 15 0 89.44
H -2 123 113 4 6 96.58
H -1.5 61 61 0 0 100.00
H -1 116 112 0 4 100.00
Grand 4996 3547 1241 208 74.08

[red raider 84]

dude, what the.. I respect your picks... don't know jack about this...

[Taxman]

RR84, I am just trying to show everyone, if you can pick the S/U winner in the NFL, you will win ATS 83.4%.

Sorry, took a stats class back in the day, so I had to support it was examples. Where you lose 30% ATS is when you are picking a favorite S/U, they only cover 70% of the time and that number goes down.

[Taxman]

To summarize, for the NFL, point spread only has an impact when you're taking a favorite of 6 or more that wins S/U, it will only cover 70% of the time. The % decreases when the spread goes up....the bell curve! Sorry, getting to complex!

[red raider 84]

Now that I understand.. I also believe pick the game winner and you are gold... Although I don't do that much in the NFL..... lol...

[Taxman]

This year, I am changing my strategy on focusing solely on the S/U winner instead of the spread when the spread is less than 6. I'm going to try this for a couple of weeks and see if I can improve my success rate!

[red raider 84]

Hey, you seem to do very well... I can't argue with anyone on the NFL... Good luck Taxman.....