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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2005

    NFL - Week 2 - Bounce back teams

    Last week I posted about possible surprise teams...teams that were given little chance to compete. I was wrong on Indianapolis, but I did preface that pick with the statement "unless Collins absolutely sucks" (or something like that). The other 2, Minnesota and Carolina, did surprise. Minnesota, an 8.5 pt dog, jumped out to a 17-7 HT lead and the game was tied until 5 min left in the 4th Q. Carolina, a 7-7.5 pt dog, led by 7 at HT, and were ahead by 7 until 5 min into the 4th Q.

    This week I'm looking at bounce-back teams....decent teams that were embarrassed last week and should come out really pissed and play well this week and, not only win but cover the spread.

    Pittsburgh -14 vs Seattle - This is an obvious one. Pittsburgh is back home after getting thoroughly embarrassed by division rival Baltimore. I looked back as far as the 2007 season and this is the worse loss by far since being defeated by 21 pts by the New England Pat team that went 18-0 before losing to the NY Giants in the SB.
    Seattle didn't play well in any phase of the game, turning the ball over 3 times, allowing 5 sacks and 2 ST TD's. Now they will be traveling for the 2nd week in a row, nearly 3000 mi., and playing a 10AM PT game against a pissed off team that is much better than the 49er team that just beat them by 25 and held them to just 2 FG's. Seattle shouldn't be able to move the ball much in the air or on the ground. They'll probably be lucky to score 6 pts again. This is going to be one fired up Steeler team. The Steelers were ripped after the Raven game by NFL analyst Warren Sapp who called them "old and slow" (among other things). Mike Tomlin will have the team ready to play and they should dominate the Seahawks. Look for 5 more sacks for Tarvarius Jackson and several more TO's.

    Atlanta +2.5 vs Philadelphia - Atlanta was considered to be a possible SB contender and were actually favored at Chicago last week. Needless to say, the results were very underwhelming. Probably not a great place to open the season as a favorite. So they go from favorite on the road at a very tough venue to underdog at home? They actually moved the ball pretty well as Turner had a 100 yd rushing day and Ryan passed for over 300 yds. They did have 3 TO's, one of which resulted in an Urlacher TD return, and they had several drives that stalled, but they did move the ball.
    Philadelphia did most of their damage on the ground with 122 yds from McCoy and almost 100 from Vick who was only 14 of 32 for 187 yds passing, but he did have 2 TD passes. Atlanta should present a little stouter defense vs the run and should be very eager to get a win. I think they win this game with some help from the home crowd which should be quite raucous with Vick's return to Atlanta.

    Indianapolis +2 vs Cleveland - The Colts were probably the most embarrassed team last week as they got absolutely murdered by the Texans. The offense was totally out of synch and put a tremendous load on the defense who were on the field for nearly 62% of the game. To their credit they did force 3 TO's, and they did hold Houston scoreless in the 2nd half. They get a much easier opponent this week, and at home. If Cleveland had trouble at home as nearly a TD favorite against the likes of rookie Andy Dalton and Bruce Gradkowski I can't imagine why Collins would be considered much worse of an option. I think the Colt defense can keep the game close enough for Collins to win and will look for a much better effort from him this week. Houston was probably the worst venue for his Colt debut due to the dominance Indy has had over them over the years. They saw a chance for huge revenge and went for the kill. BTW, I wouldn't be surprised to see them a little flat this week at Miami.

    Other games,
    Miami +3 vs Houston - As mentioned above, possible let down for Houston? Miami offense moved the ball and scored but just couldn't keep up with Brady. I can see them winning this game.

    Kansas City +9 at Detroit - I hesitate to mention this one as the Chiefs have not proven they can score under the new offensive regime. But teams that get embarrassed the way they did last week often times rebound significantly. I'm not saying they will win this game, but it's very possible they rise to the occasion and play well enough to fit inside this number. And all it takes is a something like a ST TD, or for someone like a Jamaal Charles to break free, to make the game closer than expected. Kansas City has enough play makers on offense and ST's (Charles, McCluster, Arenas, Bowe), that something like that could very well happen. Detroit could be a little 'full of themselves' going into this game also?

    Come back down to earth Game of the Week -
    Green Bay -10 at Carolina - Arizona decided to concentrate on stopping the run and letting the rookie try and beat them through the air. It didn't work very well. So now the Panthers get a real opponent in the SB champ Packers, who now have an idea of what Newton can and can't do. I don't see how this game can possibly be competitive. Green Bay 41-13

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Great analysis Dragon.

    I am right on board with your top 3 plays.

    For the Pittsburgh game also add the following:
    SEA @ AFC: 0-8 SU 1-7 ATS L8, 2-14 SU 2-13-1 L 16
    PIT H v NFC: 14-1 SU, 11-4 ATS L15

    With AZ's plan of attack and less than stellar secondary, I could have put up 250 yards as most of the time Newton was airing it out and no one was around the receivers. Dom Capers has got to be licking his chops at this game plan.

    I don't like playing DD chalk, but these 2 games should not be close!



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