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  1. #1
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    **Betting strategy**

    Here's a nice little tip, especially for anyone out there who doesn't have the time to pour over mountains of data to handicap games.

    It's similar to the betting against the public strategy that many talk about with all these sites posting betting percentages these days. But, the betting percentages can also be misleading, because it's just based on the number of bets, NOT the actual amount of money bet.

    But, this can solve that problem......

    Take a look at Sports Interactions lines, aka SIA. Even Bodog, to a lesser extent, but we'll stick with SIA for this.

    SIA is perhaps, THE squarest sportsbook in the world. They don't currently take US players, but that doesn't matter. They have ALWAYS moved their lines on MONEY alone. They could care less if their moves cross key numbers, etc. etc.

    If they were a book anyone could bet in, their lines wouldn't be like this, because the wiseguys would pound their numbers back to where they should be. But there are no wiseguys playing there. They won't allow them to.

    Look at an odds feed. You can use our free feed http://www.bettorsworld.com/live-odds.htm

    Compare SIA to a sharp book, or really any book that reflects the market in general. Bookmaker, Betonline.....

    Look for the games that are out of whack. For example, here on today's NFL card.

    SIA is -6.5 -125 on the Ravens while the rest of the world is -5.5

    SIA is -3.5 on the Cowboys while the rest of the world is -3 with low juice ie -3 -105

    SIA also has the only -3 right now on the Eagles, everyone else is -2.5

    You'll find spots like this every day in every sport. Especially college sports. You'll find games worth a look that otherwise you may not have looked at.

    Yesterday for example, ARMY and LA TECH were jumping of the page....both were dogs of a little less than a TD.....Army won outright and LA Tech lost by 1.

    It's well worth your time

  2. #2
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    thanks!! very informative and love your live odds page!

  3. #3
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    Looking at SIA right now they have Pitt a full point and a half (-15 compared to -13/)
    more than the other books. Is that out of whack?

  4. #4
    Good stuff and easy way to spot the Public plays. But we might want to open an SIA account to take advantage of it by betting on the sharp dogs with SIA.

  5. #5
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    On top of that, does anyone else look at "weird" lines....where they scream free money?

    One was Michigan State as a dog this weekend against a ND team that couldn't get out of their own way in weeks 1/2. But Notre dame was a 5 point fav. Grnted they are a public team but 5 seems crazy to me and back in my rookie days, I would have unloaded on MSU.

    Another game that I circled on last monday but chickend out on in the end was la tech + 7 over Houston at home. Houston is high powered and a good team so I couldn't figure out why they weren't at least 10 point favs on the road at La Tech? I passed but Houstond only won by 1 in a good game the way it sounded.

    Just curious if anayone else uses this too?

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by woodee12 View Post
    On top of that, does anyone else look at "weird" lines....where they scream free money?

    One was Michigan State as a dog this weekend against a ND team that couldn't get out of their own way in weeks 1/2. But Notre dame was a 5 point fav. Grnted they are a public team but 5 seems crazy to me and back in my rookie days, I would have unloaded on MSU.

    Another game that I circled on last monday but chickend out on in the end was la tech + 7 over Houston at home. Houston is high powered and a good team so I couldn't figure out why they weren't at least 10 point favs on the road at La Tech? I passed but Houstond only won by 1 in a good game the way it sounded.

    Just curious if anayone else uses this too?
    woodee,

    I wouldn't automatically go with a weird line. Many guys cap the games and if the line comes out far from their line, THAT'S their play. To totally fade yourself is not right. Unless we have conceded that we are Joe Public! Certainly a "weird" line should raise the caution flag and we need to make sure we are not missing something, but what does it say about our own intuition and capping skills if we let the linesmakers dictate our picks? Isn't that when a good capper unloads? When his line is a lot different from the Book's line?

  7. #7
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    Not really. Over the long haul the book is always right. I think in attempting to balance action they know what to do. I have capped many games where I have it dead nuts on which team shouls win, my line is off a lot of the vegas line, and vegas wins. But its never an exact science either. I think oddsmakers like to trap some into games as well.

    But another 2 games stick out to me from last week too...

    Ole Miss over Vandy...Miss looked to be the play, and my line would have had them favored by at least a TD. Vandy smokes them and they were only +2 dogs. Ole Miss was clearly the better team on paper, so why the low line?

    LSU over Missy State...LSU was the better team on paper and had a favorable line so they should have been the play. Sharp action on MSU, and they were never really in it. So that says that by pure capping, LSU was the play.

    So both of those games dis-prove my theory so there is really no right answer. But your point is valid and understand exactly what you are saying.

    That being said, unloading on one game should very rarely ever be done!!

  8. #8
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    Currently have an account with SIA.
    They have NYG -8 @ -105
    Got NYG -0.5 last on teaser @ 10 units to win 40 units.
    After yall's comments,
    Think I'll bet on StL + 8 @ -115 for 23 units.

  9. #9
    So do you all believe in trap games? A game where the books feel confident that one team will cover even a line that begs action on the other team?

    Were they sure Notre Dame was going to bounce back this week so they set out to "trap" people with a "free money" offer on Michigan State +5.5! Or was the line that high because they knew the sharps would be all over Notre Dame in addition to the public? In other words, did they have to set the line that high to get near equal money on both sides, or were they TRYING to get more money on Michigan State because they are Vegas and the Books and they knew Notre Dame would cover and they would fleece the Public?

  10. #10
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    It might be better to maybe say "they expected" rather than "they knew" Notre Dame
    would win. The more a team is in the public conscience it just means you need to dig
    deeper into the lines. I've seen it happen with Boise St. and New England, as examples.
    Not so much now, but going back say four years ago for Boise St. and a lot longer for
    New England where their rising popularity presented some lines that begged you to bet
    against them.
    Back to Notre Dame, it would seem their popularity meant losses for the public
    three weeks in a row....on the wrong side every time.

  11. #11
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    Probably would need a high paying job you got from that
    ND degree to cover those continuing losses.

  12. #12
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    This week, at this early stage, one game really pops out.

    SIA -6.5 -115 on LSU.......-5.5 everywhere else.

  13. #13
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    Trap games - no. That's giving oddsmakers way too much credit. Way too risky for the house.

    Sportsbooks employ several sources to arrive at their opening numbers. Many Vegas books use LVSC as well as in house oddsmakers and also offer their first numbers to some sharp players.

    Likewise offshore.

    A place like LVSC is never going to send out their numbers to their clients and tell them hey, this line is a trap because we LOVE notre dame......if they did, they wouldn't be in business long.

    Will sportsbooks shade a line one way or another? Absolutely. Will sportsbooks ever put up a line 4 or 5 points off to trick or trap bettors? Never.

    Remember also, that the smartest guys are NOT on the side of the house. They are bettors......waiting to pounce on any mistakes the books post.

    A sportsbook like pinnacle is known to take positions. Learning how to read an odds board can give you an idea of those positions........you can actually do quite well betting halftimes in all sports by watching pinnacles moves........anytime you can get the best line on a proposition at pinnacle, it's likely the WRONG side

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Bettorsworld View Post
    This week, at this early stage, one game really pops out.

    SIA -6.5 -115 on LSU.......-5.5 everywhere else.
    So take LSU -5.5 at Pinnacle or grab WV +6.5 at SIA?

  15. #15
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    Numbers that look funny, NFL Baltimore -3 1/2 at Lambs
    I was thinking bounce back for the Ravens just like the steelers did, Lambs have looked awful. I expected to see -7. anythoughts?

  16. #16
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    widestrides - yes, you could look at it from a middle perspective, especially if either line moved....ie SIA moved to -6.5 -120 and another shop went to -5.5 even.....a FREE shot at a middle.

    But in general, these observations are meant for betting purposes.

    If you have access to SIA, and use a book like Pinnacle as the "right" line and play the obvious differences, you WILL win long term.......you may not have the SIA account much longer if you do this, but you'll win.

    The sharp books have taken millions of SIA's dollars over the years. (when you middle or scalp you're just basically transferring money from one book to another.......the sharp books end up with the money)

  17. #17
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    They are actually -6.5 -125 now......so, yes, anyone with access to SIA and another book that has reduced juice, like pinnacle, would be brain dead not to take a shot at the free middle...... wva 6.5 +105 and lsu -5.5 -105.....crazy stuff.

    If that line at sia was available to anyone who wanted to bet it, it wouldn't last 10 seconds...........

  18. #18
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    I've had an SIA account since January I believe it was. My downfall is I can't stay out of the casino If I would just stick to sports wagering with them, I would be ok. I have a WS wager with them I made back in February for Brewers at 30-1. Once that is cleared I probably won't be using them anymore. My only other complaint, besides their casino being tight, is their supposedly "free" deposits costing an international transaction fee each time. Not alot, but adds up. I like SBG, even get back 10% on my casino losses, but better graphics and variety of games at SIA. Thats about it.

  19. #19
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    If bets are kept at a moderate level, wouldn't it take a while for SIA to realize that someone is taking a shot at the middle? Go for a long, slower kill, than huge bets that draw attention.

    Oldluds, I got hit with an international transaction fee the last time I made a deposit. It was a little over $40 for a $850 deposit. I won it back and more in the first few days, but I am still out the $40. I think as the offshores scramble to discretely transfer money back and forth between the island and the states, and avoid the Feds, these fees may be here to stay.

    The last payout I received came by a courier and was shipped from China. The person at the courier's office (I won't mention the company) questioned me at length about what was in the envelope. It really was none of her business what was in the envelope, but that did not stop her from being very curious.

  20. #20
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    Yes, it would depend on the amounts you were betting and how often. If you used the SIA account only to take advantage of all of these "gifts" they offer, and made limit bets every time, a distinct pattern would be obvious, AND your account balance would likely rise significantly.

    If you're a small bettor they likely wouldn't bother you.

    My advice to anyone with an SIA account, especially if you're a small bettor, would be to use other books, or a combination of a few other books, to determine what the "right" number is. Then bet the games where SIA is significantly off.

    In the long run, using this method, you're likely to do far better than any handicapping method could ever do.........and you'll save yourself tons of time

    I just looked back at the first post in this thread and realized the 3 examples I threw out went 3-0......

  21. #21
    I think BetOnline and/or BetUS have similar crazy lines sometimes.

  22. #22
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    Is this a play ?

    SIA PIT -11.5 / -105

    LM PIT -10.5 / -110

    What to do ?
    Get down on both now.
    Bet on -10.5 & hope SIA goes up.

    Just curious.

    WC

  23. #23
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    if your intent is middle, I'd stick with the 3's and 7's in the NFL.....unless you can get free shots or very low juice on both sides.

    The WVA game was a no brainer for a middle attempt because it was free......but the main point to the SIA "lean" was to point out potential betting opportunities.....

  24. #24
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    Fading the % in the NFL yesterday----

    Biggest % of money from the site I use were:

    Atlanta +1 (TB)
    Baltimore -6 (STL)
    Pitts -11 (indy)
    Detroit -3/3.5 (minny)


    Fading those you could have went 3-1 depending on the number you got with Minny.

    I know you cannot blindly do this all year, but the books don't get hurt that bad usually if ther are a large % of money on one team without the line moving.

    I played all 4 and although St.Louis wasn't close the others cashed for me.

  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by woodee12 View Post
    Fading the % in the NFL yesterday----

    Biggest % of money from the site I use were:

    Atlanta +1 (TB)
    Baltimore -6 (STL)
    Pitts -11 (indy)
    Detroit -3/3.5 (minny)


    Fading those you could have went 3-1 depending on the number you got with Minny.

    I know you cannot blindly do this all year, but the books don't get hurt that bad usually if ther are a large % of money on one team without the line moving.

    I played all 4 and although St.Louis wasn't close the others cashed for me.
    I'm surprised Atlanta was such a public pick on the road. I guess off that Philly win, but I could see that Atlanta was flawed even in that win over Philly. And now we see that Philly has flaws. As does Chicago, San Diego, Houston, Jets, New England and even Pittsburgh and Detroit. Tonight, we may see that Washington is not ready for elite status, or we'll see further weakness in Dallas.

    Where's the best place to check for Public plays?

    Green Bay, New Orleans, New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and the top echelon and then Detroit, Buffalo, San Diego, Jets, Houston, Tampa, Giants, Dallas, Eagles, Atlanta and a whole host of pretenders/contenders.

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