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  1. #26
    Join Date
    Sep 1999
    Posts
    1,570
    Just remember, these betting percentages you see out on the net are the PERCENTAGE OF BETS on one side, NOT the percentage of MONEY bet on one side. No sportsbook that I know of, will allow a peak into actual money bet.

    Therefore, it's possible for a sportsbook to list 70% of the BETS being on one side, yet the MONEY actually booked to be split evenly, or even in the other direction.

    ie. a book takes 500 bets on a game, 350 of those bets are $10 bets on the favorite while 150 of those bets are limit bets on the dog. Extreme example to make a point.

    It can be useful to look for games where the percentage is high and yet the line moves the other direction....a possible indication of sharp play. Most books won't budge a number at all when a square makes a limit bet.......while the same book may move a number with just a few hundred dollars bet by a sharp.

    Lastly, remember this.......using these percentages and finding ways to "fade the public" is all well and good. It can be incorporated into your overall strategy, but BE CAREFUL. The public may be correct what, 45-50% of the time or so? 45-50 winners out of every 100......don't leave a game you feel strongly about on the table just because the "public" also likes it......the "public" has winning days, winning weeks and even winning seasons.............

  2. #27
    Join Date
    Sep 1999
    Posts
    1,570
    widestrides - betting percentages seem to be everywhere these days.......

    sportsoptions
    sportsinsights

    caribsports.com is a sportsbook that's been around for a gazillion years and they list percentages right on their site without needing an account, under player picks.

    sportsbook.com lists them as well......many others as well.

  3. #28
    Good point about Public Plays winning 45-50% of the time. If playing against the public was easy money, like 60%, everyone would be on it and it wouldn't last. Like Home dogs were good until they became a well-known play.

  4. #29
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    429
    Is anyone following the SIA theory today it looks like Balt and the over in the Dal game is the play now

  5. #30
    You could get Pats -6 at many books and Cowboys +7 on SIA for a decent middle shot.

    But middles are not a great % play.

    The strategy is more to seek value with a dog on SIA. That would be Cowboys +7, Cleveland +7, Tampa +7 and Minny +3. Maybe Houston +7.5?

  6. #31
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    1
    Hello everyone, not sure if I've ever posted here before but have been a big BW fan. This thread caught my interest and want to make sure I understand it. Let's take the Denver-Miami game today. The line everywhere was Denver -1 and a few PK's.

    SIA had Miami at +2 so if you have an account there you would take the dog and the 2 points as Dever is the public play. Now SIA doesn't take USA customers anymore so wouldn't you still take MIAMI at +1 at another book that you could still play at. The public is on Denver so you would still bet Miami at +1 if you couldn't bet it at SIA. Denver would not be the play at -1 as they are the public choice.

    Am I correct on this?

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