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**Betting strategy**

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  • #16
    widestrides - yes, you could look at it from a middle perspective, especially if either line moved....ie SIA moved to -6.5 -120 and another shop went to -5.5 even.....a FREE shot at a middle.

    But in general, these observations are meant for betting purposes.

    If you have access to SIA, and use a book like Pinnacle as the "right" line and play the obvious differences, you WILL win long term.......you may not have the SIA account much longer if you do this, but you'll win.

    The sharp books have taken millions of SIA's dollars over the years. (when you middle or scalp you're just basically transferring money from one book to another.......the sharp books end up with the money)

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    • #17
      They are actually -6.5 -125 now......so, yes, anyone with access to SIA and another book that has reduced juice, like pinnacle, would be brain dead not to take a shot at the free middle...... wva 6.5 +105 and lsu -5.5 -105.....crazy stuff.

      If that line at sia was available to anyone who wanted to bet it, it wouldn't last 10 seconds...........

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      • #18
        I've had an SIA account since January I believe it was. My downfall is I can't stay out of the casino If I would just stick to sports wagering with them, I would be ok. I have a WS wager with them I made back in February for Brewers at 30-1. Once that is cleared I probably won't be using them anymore. My only other complaint, besides their casino being tight, is their supposedly "free" deposits costing an international transaction fee each time. Not alot, but adds up. I like SBG, even get back 10% on my casino losses, but better graphics and variety of games at SIA. Thats about it.

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        • #19
          If bets are kept at a moderate level, wouldn't it take a while for SIA to realize that someone is taking a shot at the middle? Go for a long, slower kill, than huge bets that draw attention.

          Oldluds, I got hit with an international transaction fee the last time I made a deposit. It was a little over $40 for a $850 deposit. I won it back and more in the first few days, but I am still out the $40. I think as the offshores scramble to discretely transfer money back and forth between the island and the states, and avoid the Feds, these fees may be here to stay.

          The last payout I received came by a courier and was shipped from China. The person at the courier's office (I won't mention the company) questioned me at length about what was in the envelope. It really was none of her business what was in the envelope, but that did not stop her from being very curious.

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          • #20
            Yes, it would depend on the amounts you were betting and how often. If you used the SIA account only to take advantage of all of these "gifts" they offer, and made limit bets every time, a distinct pattern would be obvious, AND your account balance would likely rise significantly.

            If you're a small bettor they likely wouldn't bother you.

            My advice to anyone with an SIA account, especially if you're a small bettor, would be to use other books, or a combination of a few other books, to determine what the "right" number is. Then bet the games where SIA is significantly off.

            In the long run, using this method, you're likely to do far better than any handicapping method could ever do.........and you'll save yourself tons of time

            I just looked back at the first post in this thread and realized the 3 examples I threw out went 3-0......

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            • #21
              I think BetOnline and/or BetUS have similar crazy lines sometimes.

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              • #22
                Is this a play ?

                SIA PIT -11.5 / -105

                LM PIT -10.5 / -110

                What to do ?
                Get down on both now.
                Bet on -10.5 & hope SIA goes up.

                Just curious.

                WC

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                • #23
                  if your intent is middle, I'd stick with the 3's and 7's in the NFL.....unless you can get free shots or very low juice on both sides.

                  The WVA game was a no brainer for a middle attempt because it was free......but the main point to the SIA "lean" was to point out potential betting opportunities.....

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                  • #24
                    Fading the % in the NFL yesterday----

                    Biggest % of money from the site I use were:

                    Atlanta +1 (TB)
                    Baltimore -6 (STL)
                    Pitts -11 (indy)
                    Detroit -3/3.5 (minny)


                    Fading those you could have went 3-1 depending on the number you got with Minny.

                    I know you cannot blindly do this all year, but the books don't get hurt that bad usually if ther are a large % of money on one team without the line moving.

                    I played all 4 and although St.Louis wasn't close the others cashed for me.

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by woodee12 View Post
                      Fading the % in the NFL yesterday----

                      Biggest % of money from the site I use were:

                      Atlanta +1 (TB)
                      Baltimore -6 (STL)
                      Pitts -11 (indy)
                      Detroit -3/3.5 (minny)


                      Fading those you could have went 3-1 depending on the number you got with Minny.

                      I know you cannot blindly do this all year, but the books don't get hurt that bad usually if ther are a large % of money on one team without the line moving.

                      I played all 4 and although St.Louis wasn't close the others cashed for me.
                      I'm surprised Atlanta was such a public pick on the road. I guess off that Philly win, but I could see that Atlanta was flawed even in that win over Philly. And now we see that Philly has flaws. As does Chicago, San Diego, Houston, Jets, New England and even Pittsburgh and Detroit. Tonight, we may see that Washington is not ready for elite status, or we'll see further weakness in Dallas.

                      Where's the best place to check for Public plays?

                      Green Bay, New Orleans, New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and the top echelon and then Detroit, Buffalo, San Diego, Jets, Houston, Tampa, Giants, Dallas, Eagles, Atlanta and a whole host of pretenders/contenders.

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                      • #26
                        Just remember, these betting percentages you see out on the net are the PERCENTAGE OF BETS on one side, NOT the percentage of MONEY bet on one side. No sportsbook that I know of, will allow a peak into actual money bet.

                        Therefore, it's possible for a sportsbook to list 70% of the BETS being on one side, yet the MONEY actually booked to be split evenly, or even in the other direction.

                        ie. a book takes 500 bets on a game, 350 of those bets are $10 bets on the favorite while 150 of those bets are limit bets on the dog. Extreme example to make a point.

                        It can be useful to look for games where the percentage is high and yet the line moves the other direction....a possible indication of sharp play. Most books won't budge a number at all when a square makes a limit bet.......while the same book may move a number with just a few hundred dollars bet by a sharp.

                        Lastly, remember this.......using these percentages and finding ways to "fade the public" is all well and good. It can be incorporated into your overall strategy, but BE CAREFUL. The public may be correct what, 45-50% of the time or so? 45-50 winners out of every 100......don't leave a game you feel strongly about on the table just because the "public" also likes it......the "public" has winning days, winning weeks and even winning seasons.............

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                        • #27
                          widestrides - betting percentages seem to be everywhere these days.......

                          sportsoptions
                          sportsinsights

                          caribsports.com is a sportsbook that's been around for a gazillion years and they list percentages right on their site without needing an account, under player picks.

                          sportsbook.com lists them as well......many others as well.

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                          • #28
                            Good point about Public Plays winning 45-50% of the time. If playing against the public was easy money, like 60%, everyone would be on it and it wouldn't last. Like Home dogs were good until they became a well-known play.

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                            • #29
                              Is anyone following the SIA theory today it looks like Balt and the over in the Dal game is the play now

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                              • #30
                                You could get Pats -6 at many books and Cowboys +7 on SIA for a decent middle shot.

                                But middles are not a great % play.

                                The strategy is more to seek value with a dog on SIA. That would be Cowboys +7, Cleveland +7, Tampa +7 and Minny +3. Maybe Houston +7.5?

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