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**Betting strategy**

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  • **Betting strategy**

    Here's a nice little tip, especially for anyone out there who doesn't have the time to pour over mountains of data to handicap games.

    It's similar to the betting against the public strategy that many talk about with all these sites posting betting percentages these days. But, the betting percentages can also be misleading, because it's just based on the number of bets, NOT the actual amount of money bet.

    But, this can solve that problem......

    Take a look at Sports Interactions lines, aka SIA. Even Bodog, to a lesser extent, but we'll stick with SIA for this.

    SIA is perhaps, THE squarest sportsbook in the world. They don't currently take US players, but that doesn't matter. They have ALWAYS moved their lines on MONEY alone. They could care less if their moves cross key numbers, etc. etc.

    If they were a book anyone could bet in, their lines wouldn't be like this, because the wiseguys would pound their numbers back to where they should be. But there are no wiseguys playing there. They won't allow them to.

    Look at an odds feed. You can use our free feed http://www.bettorsworld.com/live-odds.htm

    Compare SIA to a sharp book, or really any book that reflects the market in general. Bookmaker, Betonline.....

    Look for the games that are out of whack. For example, here on today's NFL card.

    SIA is -6.5 -125 on the Ravens while the rest of the world is -5.5

    SIA is -3.5 on the Cowboys while the rest of the world is -3 with low juice ie -3 -105

    SIA also has the only -3 right now on the Eagles, everyone else is -2.5

    You'll find spots like this every day in every sport. Especially college sports. You'll find games worth a look that otherwise you may not have looked at.

    Yesterday for example, ARMY and LA TECH were jumping of the page....both were dogs of a little less than a TD.....Army won outright and LA Tech lost by 1.

    It's well worth your time

  • #2
    thanks!! very informative and love your live odds page!

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    • #3
      Looking at SIA right now they have Pitt a full point and a half (-15 compared to -13/)
      more than the other books. Is that out of whack?

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      • #4
        Good stuff and easy way to spot the Public plays. But we might want to open an SIA account to take advantage of it by betting on the sharp dogs with SIA.

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        • #5
          On top of that, does anyone else look at "weird" lines....where they scream free money?

          One was Michigan State as a dog this weekend against a ND team that couldn't get out of their own way in weeks 1/2. But Notre dame was a 5 point fav. Grnted they are a public team but 5 seems crazy to me and back in my rookie days, I would have unloaded on MSU.

          Another game that I circled on last monday but chickend out on in the end was la tech + 7 over Houston at home. Houston is high powered and a good team so I couldn't figure out why they weren't at least 10 point favs on the road at La Tech? I passed but Houstond only won by 1 in a good game the way it sounded.

          Just curious if anayone else uses this too?

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          • #6
            Originally posted by woodee12 View Post
            On top of that, does anyone else look at "weird" lines....where they scream free money?

            One was Michigan State as a dog this weekend against a ND team that couldn't get out of their own way in weeks 1/2. But Notre dame was a 5 point fav. Grnted they are a public team but 5 seems crazy to me and back in my rookie days, I would have unloaded on MSU.

            Another game that I circled on last monday but chickend out on in the end was la tech + 7 over Houston at home. Houston is high powered and a good team so I couldn't figure out why they weren't at least 10 point favs on the road at La Tech? I passed but Houstond only won by 1 in a good game the way it sounded.

            Just curious if anayone else uses this too?
            woodee,

            I wouldn't automatically go with a weird line. Many guys cap the games and if the line comes out far from their line, THAT'S their play. To totally fade yourself is not right. Unless we have conceded that we are Joe Public! Certainly a "weird" line should raise the caution flag and we need to make sure we are not missing something, but what does it say about our own intuition and capping skills if we let the linesmakers dictate our picks? Isn't that when a good capper unloads? When his line is a lot different from the Book's line?

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            • #7
              Not really. Over the long haul the book is always right. I think in attempting to balance action they know what to do. I have capped many games where I have it dead nuts on which team shouls win, my line is off a lot of the vegas line, and vegas wins. But its never an exact science either. I think oddsmakers like to trap some into games as well.

              But another 2 games stick out to me from last week too...

              Ole Miss over Vandy...Miss looked to be the play, and my line would have had them favored by at least a TD. Vandy smokes them and they were only +2 dogs. Ole Miss was clearly the better team on paper, so why the low line?

              LSU over Missy State...LSU was the better team on paper and had a favorable line so they should have been the play. Sharp action on MSU, and they were never really in it. So that says that by pure capping, LSU was the play.

              So both of those games dis-prove my theory so there is really no right answer. But your point is valid and understand exactly what you are saying.

              That being said, unloading on one game should very rarely ever be done!!

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              • #8
                Currently have an account with SIA.
                They have NYG -8 @ -105
                Got NYG -0.5 last on teaser @ 10 units to win 40 units.
                After yall's comments,
                Think I'll bet on StL + 8 @ -115 for 23 units.

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                • #9
                  So do you all believe in trap games? A game where the books feel confident that one team will cover even a line that begs action on the other team?

                  Were they sure Notre Dame was going to bounce back this week so they set out to "trap" people with a "free money" offer on Michigan State +5.5! Or was the line that high because they knew the sharps would be all over Notre Dame in addition to the public? In other words, did they have to set the line that high to get near equal money on both sides, or were they TRYING to get more money on Michigan State because they are Vegas and the Books and they knew Notre Dame would cover and they would fleece the Public?

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                  • #10
                    It might be better to maybe say "they expected" rather than "they knew" Notre Dame
                    would win. The more a team is in the public conscience it just means you need to dig
                    deeper into the lines. I've seen it happen with Boise St. and New England, as examples.
                    Not so much now, but going back say four years ago for Boise St. and a lot longer for
                    New England where their rising popularity presented some lines that begged you to bet
                    against them.
                    Back to Notre Dame, it would seem their popularity meant losses for the public
                    three weeks in a row....on the wrong side every time.

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                    • #11
                      Probably would need a high paying job you got from that
                      ND degree to cover those continuing losses.

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                      • #12
                        This week, at this early stage, one game really pops out.

                        SIA -6.5 -115 on LSU.......-5.5 everywhere else.

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                        • #13
                          Trap games - no. That's giving oddsmakers way too much credit. Way too risky for the house.

                          Sportsbooks employ several sources to arrive at their opening numbers. Many Vegas books use LVSC as well as in house oddsmakers and also offer their first numbers to some sharp players.

                          Likewise offshore.

                          A place like LVSC is never going to send out their numbers to their clients and tell them hey, this line is a trap because we LOVE notre dame......if they did, they wouldn't be in business long.

                          Will sportsbooks shade a line one way or another? Absolutely. Will sportsbooks ever put up a line 4 or 5 points off to trick or trap bettors? Never.

                          Remember also, that the smartest guys are NOT on the side of the house. They are bettors......waiting to pounce on any mistakes the books post.

                          A sportsbook like pinnacle is known to take positions. Learning how to read an odds board can give you an idea of those positions........you can actually do quite well betting halftimes in all sports by watching pinnacles moves........anytime you can get the best line on a proposition at pinnacle, it's likely the WRONG side

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Bettorsworld View Post
                            This week, at this early stage, one game really pops out.

                            SIA -6.5 -115 on LSU.......-5.5 everywhere else.
                            So take LSU -5.5 at Pinnacle or grab WV +6.5 at SIA?

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                            • #15
                              Numbers that look funny, NFL Baltimore -3 1/2 at Lambs
                              I was thinking bounce back for the Ravens just like the steelers did, Lambs have looked awful. I expected to see -7. anythoughts?
                              good luck

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