EARLY COLLEGE LOOKS + Illinois vs. NorthWestern--Carpet, Input Please... +

[woodee12]

Just wanted to get this started as I love discussing early lines in CFB...

I jumped on NW +7 right away as I love that side, but line has now moved to 6.5.

Revenge game for NW, and if Persa is ready, it should be a great, tight game.

But before I make it one of my top plays for the week, I wanted your input, wise-illinois guy!

I think ILL was caught peaking ahead to this game last week although WMU is a good team.

Please chime in....

I also like:
Purdue + over ND
Minny + over Michigan
And like Wiscy to club Nebraska but that line at -9 is a little scary to me...thought it might be 7?

Also LOVE Texas -10.5 over Iowa State...Huge revenge and ISU is over-valued after their 3-0 start and are still not capable of hanginf with the Texas' of the Big 12.

[Carpet]

Woodee Let me share my thoughts on some of these early looks:

Illinois -7 vs Northwestern (the line has moved to 6.5)

This is a homecoming game for Illinois and you can bet the farm they will be up for this game. 4-0 for the 1st time since 1951 as a team.

I think you were right in saying Illinois was looking ahead to this game when they played that tough MAC team named WMU.

A Look at Illinois:

# 14 in the nation in rushing 248 yards per game (a key stat for this game to remember)

# 12 in Points allowed Per game at 13.0

Illinois has played against 2 really good throwing QB's this year, the QB from ASU and the one from Western Michigan. This has got the defense prepared for anything that Persa from Northwestern will do.

The strength of the Illini offense is the running game, they have a great dual threat QB and also roll 4 different backs at you all with a different style of play. I look for Illinois to also use the full back position more vs NW.

Illinois ran for over 500 yards on the kitty kats last year and run again they will in this game, NW will stack 8 men in the box trying to stop the run game and forcing sheelhasse to beat them with his arm. Look for the option play to be ran time and time again.

A Peek at Northwestern:

Dan Persa is returning for his first game since last November coming off a injury, they say he is ready to play, Just how mobile he is has yet to be seen. I would guess that NW will protect him as much as possible and with his quick releases on passes I do not expect his to run much. Illinois is going to be bringing the heat on this QB almost every play.

The defense of NW is ranked 81st in the nation overall, and on the defensive side of the ball they are very thin at every position. NW gave up 381 yards on the ground to Army as they stacked the box 8 deep trying to stop the triple option attack.

Army has lost to SD St, Ball St and N Ill but found a way to beat NW all on the running game. There is no way that the kitty kats will stop Illinois and the run game.

I know for a fact the Fitzgerald NW coach has a few trick plays waiting for Illinois so I will factor in an extra 7 points for NW in this game.

I see this game ILLINOIS 31- NW 19

[Taxman]

Carpet, please stop about the statistics for Illinois for this year. A stale cupcake will ruin your batch. I'm glad Illinois held South Dakota St. to 96 yards, while Illinois has run for 200 against Arkansas St. 300 against South Dakota State, and 200 against Western Michigan, but only 100 against Arizona State.

Here are a few things going in Northwestern's favor, in my opinion. Coming off an off week, extra time to prepare for Illinois. Last year's game was the week after Persa was hurt, the game was basically netural since it was at Wrigley.

BTW, do you ever pick against the Illini?? j/k

Woodie, I'd be careful about Purdue getting 13. This should be Marve's first start. NDs defense is pretty good. I'm not really sold on Purdue football this year. They really are not that good, 6-6 would be great! They barely beat Middle Tennessee (they looked poor), lost to Rice, and enjoyed getting fat on a cupcake a couple of weeks ago. Yes, they had an extra week to prepare against ND. But, I believe the number is right.

[Carpet]

More looks at your early games.

Minny + 20.5 vs Michigan, Coach Kill is back in the hospital, The gophers are a bad football team, do not I repeat do not let the close game this year vs USC allow you to think any different. Minny always plays the 1st game of the year the best and then the wheels fly off. The gophers have no way of stopping robinson of MI.
MICHIGAN by 38

WISCONSIN -10 vs Nebraska,

What a great way to start your Big 10 season in a new league for the cornhuskers.

I have not been that impressed with Big Reds defense this year and the wins are most unimpressive might be what is driving this line higher. John Q Public is all to well aware of Wisconsins avg margin of victory this year at 40 ppg, but that was vs Cup cakes.

I have to look at the level of teams both have faced and the edge goes to NB, Wisky out up 35 on Oregon State this year and The Huskers are a far beter team than that I dont see Wisky getting more than 30 points this game.

This is going to be a close game, I just know it, Just dont see each defense being able to stop the offense on both teams.

Field goal decides this game

[Carpet]

Carpet, please stop about the statistics for Illinois for this year. A stale cupcake will ruin your batch. I'm glad Illinois held South Dakota St. to 96 yards, while Illinois has run for 200 against Arkansas St. 300 against South Dakota State, and 200 against Western Michigan, but only 100 against Arizona State..

Lets run your numbers Illinois only gave up 60 yards to SD ST and ran for 202

SD State had 25 yards rushing vs Illinois 364

AZ state ran for 106 and gave up 105

Vs WMU the total rushed was 296 and allowing only 35 yards.

So with all respect Tax you think the 2 keys to this games that favors the wildcats is an extra week off and a returning QB who has not played in 9 months.

[Carpet]

One other game that has caught my eye

Nevada + 27 vs Boise State NV can score some points, not much on stopping people but can score, I like them to cover this huge number

[widestrides]

I don't know Illinois but I saw NW against BC the first game of the year. BC is bad and NW barely beat them. NW doesn't look that big. Illinois might man-handle them. Getting Persa back is big, but this is after a year off.

[woodee12]

I see your points guys, but I still think NW is the most capable dog on the Board of winning outright. I like it better for the fact that ILL is 4-0, if they wern't I may not play NW.

Here are some others I played as I see the lines moving against me throughout the week.

I am impressed by the MAC teams this year and its going to be a great conf. race to watch. Lots of talent at these schools between Temple, Toledo, Bolwling Green, Ohio U...

NC State +12 over GTech....Very juicy spot for NC State here at home against a GT team that has bettors druling over their wins. NC stae did not look good on the road but are a better team than they showed. I see NC State having a shot to win this one and Double digits is way too many.

Toledo +7 over Temple....Temple smoked Maryland on the road last week otherwise this line may be 3 or 4. Toledo is a good team and another dog that can win SU.

Miami-OH +14 over CInnci--rilvary game and Miami is at home. Cinnci looked good on TV last Thursday but I don't think they will take this game too seriously, and may get upset on the road.

Rutgers +3 at Cuse...I think Cuse is hgorrible even at home. Rutgers will pind the ball and should win this one.

3-team teaser of the week (10-point)
Utah State +17.5
Texas pk
Wiscy pk

[Taxman]

Woodee, thanks for the insight in the TX/IA St game.

Let's all keep the friendly banter coming. Makes us all better!!

[Carpet]

A few more games to look at.



Arkansas -3 vs Texas AM Give me Arkansas all day is this game
Good team the razor backs have and TAM's game will not expose any weakness on AK

BAYLOR -3.5 vs Kansas State, Plain and simple Robert Griffin is amazing at QB has passed for over 950 yards this early season, I don't see K State slowing him down

Notre Dame -12.5 vs Purdue,

This is a bad Purdue team, is nothing like we remember from years past, amazing how far this team has slid downward so quickly, The Irish are head and shoulders above the boilermakers at every position x 2, I see ND by 20

[woodee12]

Like ARK too, but the line is +3 where I got it. Already played it.

Looked at Baylor myself, and think you are getting decent value since K-State knocked off Miami last week. I don't think they are that good really.

Back to the Mock Hilton scores...hope to have it done tonight...but trying to root the Cards onto a win as the Braves already lost.

[woodee12]

Anyone looking at Ohio State -3 over Michigan State...OSU has fallen off the radar a bit and I don't remember the last time they were only laying 3 at home. I think they will win this one by at least a TD.

Also, I am still sticking to my Guns and saying Purdue + is a strong play...ND played well of late but on the road once again, and laying double digits is crazy. I think Purdue has a shot to win this one myself.

[woodee12]

One more and then I am done for the week-- i will summarize later what I played.

Virginia Tech -6.5 over Clemson...Good value for the home team. I think VT wins and covers in the process much easier than people think. Too much D and a tough place to play. VT by 10+.

[Carpet]

Wisky vs NB

I have heard that they are expecting over 30,000 corn husker fans at this game, thay have asked them to dress in black, cool the new red is black.

I gotta say those Husker fans travel as well as any teams fans in the nation

[Carpet]

One glaring stat that stands out over and above any stat for the Illinois vs Northwestern game is one that stands out like a B52 bomber run when it is over.

The kicking game, special teams are atrocious at Illinois under Ron Zook, it is hard to believe this coach once was a special teams coach in the NFL at one time.

Zook has employed a Rugby type of punt play on every 4th down punt and it has bombed, Look at these numbers.

Illinois who is 4-0 averages 14.5 yards net per punt per game, that is horrible, compare that to the team they are playing NW they average 41.5 yards net per punt.

They have a no long distance punter and the rugby type punt is done so badly you wonder why even do it, Hell I could average 14.5 yards a kick and so could you.

This is a big hole in the over all team play look, keeping your defense on a short field every time you punt is not a good idea and it has burned Illini more than 3 times doing that vs average teams.