ILLINOIS -3.5 vs Ohio State

[Carpet]

I have watched the Illini every game and this match up with Ohio State has got me worried on many fronts.

Front # 1........Turnovers by the offense. You cannot expect your defense to bail you out time after time vs a good team like OSU. They are fast to the ball on defense and have a exceptional way of creating turn overs. This is going to cause the Illini trouble.

Front # 2 ..... Special Teams. With the exception of the field goal kicker does Illinois have a special team? I cringe every time Illinois catches a punt or attempts one.

Front # 3 ...... The Wounded dog. Ohio State is a wounded dog 0-2 Big 10 coming in to play Illinois and they are coming to play after what I would imagine was a brutal physical battle for the players of OSU after playing Nebraska. Maybe they are a bit dinged up after that game.

Front # 4.....SPEED, Ohio State is faster at most positions especially on defense.

This game has all the settings to be a great defensive battle, if the Illini keep the handle on the ball then they have a chance to win by 3, I see this 10-3 type game. If Illinois turns it over like I think they will then katy bar the door for a OSU romp.

I hate to say it, but Illinois is not ready to go 7-0. This is the best team Illinois has played all year Ohio State and from what I see they are a going to beat Illinois

[Carpet]

The line has moved to -4.5 Illinois vs Ohio State.

Ohio State is reeling over the QB situation there and according to high level buck nuts fans the new selection for QB was ranked with none of the above. Illinois defense has the speed to contain this Buckeye Offense most of the time.

Ohio State's Defense is going to cause Illinois offense fits especially at the corners and force a battle.

Illinois special teams is a Joke and a type of joke that doesn't make you laugh. I think the last thing I saw was Illinois is rated 120th in the nation on special teams. Last game Indiana took the opening kick off 99 yards for a touchdown, and I have seen way to many of the long gainers to know a good team will use that to beat you time and time again.

Ohio State is coming off a melt down after leading large vs Nebraska and blew a large lead. OSU looks like a team that starts well in games. They come right out of the blocks and hit you hard for 2 quarters. After that they are spent from a condition stand point.
Illinois will come back in the second half in this game.

Ohio State is the most dangerous team you could dial up at this time to play. They are 0-2 Big 10 with a chance to go 0-3 un heard of for the buckeyes. A Wounded dog for sure.

Illinois is flying under the radar, playing solid defense that is winning games.

This game is going to be the hardest hitting test Illinois has faced all year, I am thinking that maybe Ohio State might be a bit banged up after playing the Corn huskers coming into this game.

The way Illinois is playing at present time I must say Ohio State will win this game straight up and it will come down to a field goal.

[Krichinsky]

Carpet, great insight as always. Nine months ago you would have
gladly taken the situation the Illini come into this weekend, so all
is not so grim. I agree though that it is harder to judge them as
the favorites. Two questions for you, how did the Illini catch Oh. State
at home two straight years now and what are your early thoughts on
Mich/Mich St.? Thanks.

[Carpet]

The Line is at -4 Illinois

The kiss of death has been placed on Illinois Football. ESPN has front page "In Zook we trust" and the article goes on to trash this coach.

It is a bewildered national media that migrates to a place called Champaign Illinois

[Carpet]

There still is no answer to counter Ohio State Offense and it seems they are poised to move the ball, State is deep on every side of the ball and I know on defense the buckeyes are going to be on a strip search mission.

The speed that OSU has at especially at the corners on defense will cause Illinois fits.

Once again I come back to the special teams of Illinois and I will say again vs a good team this lack of a special teams will cost you in big games. Illinois has NO special teams game. The only special teams they have is a great FG Kicker named dimke.
(dimke as a side bar has made 78 straight Extra points in a row}

Ohio State is going to Jump on Illinois from the opening kick off (special teams) and not let off the gas.

Every practice I have seen this year, every game I have seen this year watching Illinois I have asked myself one question. Just how far has the team come? Can they
beat a team like Ohio State, Wisconsin?

My conclusion is that Illinois turns the ball over way to much, they have no punt game or return game to speak of and bad field position vs a team like OSU is going to keep the defense of Illinois on the field way to long.

Look for OSU to double team Jenkins WR of Illinois in this game he wont get loose and bring the pressure, Just do not see Illinois moving the ball vs Ohio State.

[Bama25]

Illinois will out score them by 17. Ill 34-17. Ohio State can't keep up on offense.

[Carpet]

Carpet is still at ground level looking at this game, some random thoughts and numbers

Defense Coordinator Vic Koenning of Illinois says that OSU is by far the most talented team at every position we have played this year. It jumps right off the tape when you watch them.....

Offense C Petrino says that the front of OSU is going to be tough and that is the key to their defense.

Ohio State welcomes back several key players this week and none can be as important than RB Dan Heron making his presence known for the first time this year. Heron was the Big 10 first team RB rushing for 1555 yards and 16 touchdowns last year, this is a big boost to this team.

OSU also welcomes back DL Melvin Fellows a beast whose impact will be felt, in addition they expect Braxton the QB to play. I don't know how long Braxton will last vs this tough Illinois defense and my guess is that OSU protects this QB and focuses on trying to pound the ball all game.

Now on to some scary Stats for any team especially one that is 6-0

PUNT RETURN AVERAGE

Illinois averages 3.2 yards per punt return, a long of 11 yards and 2 fumbles.
OSU averages 14.8 yards a punt return

KICKOFF RETURN AVERAGE

ILL is at 17 yards a return for a ranking of 93 in the nation
OSU 27.5 yards a return # 12 in the nation

4th Down Conversions

Illinois 0-5 for 0% tied at dead last # 119 with Oklahoma

FUMBLES
Illinois has fumbled 13 times this year leaving it behind 8 times.
On this other side of the coin Illinois has forced one turnover in the last 21 straight games -longest streak in the nation.

These are 4 things that are all key to winning a game and controlling field position and these areas of weakness will make this one tough assignment for Illinois to beat a team like Ohio State.

I really think that Illinois will be surprised at how quick and athletic OSU plays and it will take some time for them to adjust especially on offense. My biggest fear is that Nathan Sheelhaase gets hurt in this game probably on a late and dirty hit by a bucknuts player

As much as I would love to see Illinois beat OSU I do not see it.......

[Carpet]

FINAL THOUGHTS

The Line remains -3.5 Illinois.

The Fighting Zookers they are now being called (could they come up with a worst term?).

This has been a special year so far for Illinois 6-0 for the first time since 1951,
(Hell I even heard talk of a possible Illinois-Alabama match-up, please god don't let that happen).

Ohio State has beat Illinois 9 straight times in Champaign dating back to 1991. Can the Gray and Silver Cloud be lifted for the first time in 20 years ?

Illinois cannot get down early in this game like they did with NW and Indiana and expect to come back like they did. Turnovers are going to be a key as well as field position.

I have ran 2 sets of numbers, one says OSU 17-16, the other say's OSU 34-17.

Ohio State 17 Illinois 16 on the spread.

[red raider 84]

Carpet, my BW brother... Your team is 6-0 and yet your pulling out stats to wager against them.. Take it from me... as you have said to me "why are you wagering against Bama?" Maybe the Buckeyes win and your right, but why do this.. I am not a big ten guy or for that matter an SEC this year but your Illini is hot.. Rejoice and enjoy... Take care big guy!!

[Carpet]

you are right red raider but these are key changing type stats and stats dont lie, must factor it all in, and Yes I am betting that Illinois does not cover 3.5

[Carpet]

Illinois fails to cover vs this wounded dog called Ohoi State as predicted.

Just to many mistakes for Illinois and when you comnine that with all the things that Illinois needs to improve upon this game was a no brainer

Good Luck to all who jumped on the Carpet this week

[Carpet]

I ran this bet 6 times from Sunday, playing it large with the book, also took it in the BW upset of the week as well as BW College game of the week.

[dragon1952]

Great job!

[red raider 84]

Nice job Carpet.. You are doing great as of late... I am a fan...

[ScooterSteve]

I was against the clock yesterday and went to Bettorsworld specifically for Carpet's analysis of this game.
What can I say; but thank you!
Great call...."I rode the carpet".