Monday Night Football

[daddyd]

This is the first ever post using my touchpad. This week has been a good one in college and so so in the pros.4 and 1 in college thanks to that no playing Nebraska but only 5 and 4 in the pros. The guy I play with said in 25 years of booking he has never seen a year like this.The favorites are coming in a lot and so are the overs.Tonight I'm going with the squares and taking the Lions and the overs I think home field Monday night and talent will prevail. Interested in other opinions.

[Taxman]

I agree, I'm not sold on the Bears O-line...Suh should have an enjoyable time saying 'hi' to Jay all night! The line has already moved from -5 to -6.5. I agree with your bookie, I cannot believe how the public has been cashing so far this year. Last week, I think they went 4-2 on heavy point spread moves (moving line at least 2 points).

[Dinger]

I have my own line with the Lions -4, so in theory I would take the Bears +5.5.

[dragon1952]

So far have played a 7pt teaser Det +1/2 and OV 41.
The Lions have had to play 3 road games already with the lone home game being a 48-3 rout over the Chiefs, who all of a sudden aren't looking that bad. This is the first home game since Week 2 so the house should be rockin'. The Lions have scored at least 26 pts in every game, and except for the KC game have given up at least 20.
This will be just the 2nd road game for the Bears who lost by 17 at New Orleans in Week 2. Chicago has beaten the Lions 6 straight so there should be a little extra motivation for the Lions. This is also the first Monday Night Football appearance for the Lions since 2001, so that should help fire them up too.
The Lions should be getting DT Nick Fairley back for this game which should help the pass rush against a Bear team that has given up the 2nd most sacks in the NFL this year.
The line has gone from DET -5.5 to -7.
I was leaning Detroit -5.5 but not sure I like -7 at all.

[resteasy]

got the lions -5.
detroit is 6th in passing yards and the bears are 30th in amount given up. Bears also give up the 25th most rushing yds but detroit is 31st offensively but should improve with Best coming back.
bears are 24th and 23rd in passing and rushing yds with the lions 12th and 17th given defencively.
Lions need to focus on slowing forte and not kicking to hester on defence and just keep doing what they do on offense. There will be pressure on cutler, that's a given with that line.
lions cover the 5.

at 6.5 its just under a td so I'd take that too. Heck a tease to .5 and over 40 sounds real bood goo.

sidenote- posted this and last weeks comments from my touchpad too. Thing is great for the firesale price. Overclocked it with preware patches and it works great.

[resteasy]

dragon at 7....
lions have won 8 going back to last year. In those only the kc game was won by more than 7. Every other game was 7 or less. A tease of bears +14 over 40 looks like the play.
last time these teams at detroit didn't go over 40 was october 2005.

[FSU123]

my books got Det -7 dont like that line very much teased it to Det -1 and the over 41.5...i like Detroit to win this game I know Chicago has a good defense but its getting up there in age and Detroit has a fast high powered Offense. Detroits defense is pretty good With Suh and Fairley playing this week it could be scary for cutler. The rest of the defense is average but the Dline raises the play of the whole D. This has always been schwartz's theory look at the defenses he had in Tennessee..Chicago just came off a big week of running the ball but they are going to need to be successful in the air to keep this one close...My prediction is
Detroit-34
Chicago-28

[woodee12]

I usually try top read into the line a lot and see what the public is doing for monday night but I think Detroit should smoke the Bears. I don't like it much at -6.5/-7 b/c MNF is always crazy and that line move could come into play the way things turn out lately.

But throwing the line out, and picking the winner, Detroit sould win SU as the Bears haven't all the sudden found a new O-line. Screen all you want, but they will figure it out and be in Cutlers face all game and he will force it as usual.

My play is more long term---I am teasing Detroit down to a pk, and playing them with next week's MNF game, and the JETS to a pk.

[dragon1952]

Some interesting statistics.
The Bears are averaging just 307 total yds of offense per game while giving up 426 yds.
They are giving up an average of 7 minutes TOP per game.
Averaging 96 yds rushing while giving up 124.
Averaging 211 yds passing while giving up 301.
Have allowed 15 sacks while getting just 8.
Cutler is completing just 54% of his pass attempts while the Chicago defense is allowing nearly 67% completion rate.
Chicago offense is averaging 5.4 yds per play while the defense is giving up 6.2 yds per play.

The Detroit defense has had better stats in all of those areas, but they have been giving up a 65.8% QB completion pct. Hopefully Fairley's return can help that stat a bit. The Detroit rushing game has been deficient, averaging just 74 ypg.
A key factor has been the fact that Detroit has out-scored opponents 89-20 in the 2nd half (38-10 in the 3rd Q and 51-10 in the 4th).
Just for fun I'm making a small wager on HT tie/Game Lions at +1500

Comparison:
WR - Big advantage for Detroit with Calvin Johnson. Matt Forte is the leading receiver for Chicago.
QB - Stafford has passed for 1217 yds with a completion rate of 62%, throwing 11 TD's to just 3 INT's and has only been sacked 5 times. QB rating of 100.3
- Cutler has passed for 960 yds with a completion rate of 54%, throwing for just 5 TD's to 4 INT's and has been sacked 15 times. QB rating of 77.8
Advantage Detroit
RB - Advantage Chicago with Forte being more effective than Best, although they both have just 2 TD's.
DEF - Advantage to Detroit defense which has given up nearly 100 yds less per game, has had 7 INT's to just 3 for Chicago (only 1 by the secondary). Chicago's secondary has been torched for 1270 yds and 7 TD's in just 4 games.
ST - Advantage to Chicago with Hester liable to break one at any time.

I see Chicago losing the TO battle with Cutler throwing a couple picks and maybe fumbling. Stafford is more mobile and should be able to avoid the rush better. Unless Hester returns one for a TD I think Detroit wins by around 10, 31-20.

[The Boys]

Bears +7.5 -130 @ 5 Dimes

[Taxman]

Wow, that 1st quarter was a train wreck!!!! Can I get that hour of my life back??

[dragon1952]

Oh well....gotta go with the 2nd half trend with the Lions I guess.

[woodee12]

lions -6, 2nd half. Like it!

Makes them -3 for game. Good value for 2nd half team!

[widestrides]

Bears playing smart and Cutler making all the right moves. He must have eyes in the back of his head! Great throws under siege! I like to watch Cutler.

But I'll go with the Lions -6 in the 2H.

Not sure about the total O/U 23.5.

[dragon1952]

Man that sure should have made it to 41. Lions had great field position 3 times in the 2nd H and came away with shit. Oh well, got the Lions -6 2nd half and -.5 3rd Q to salvage the teaser bet.